I agree on most but not on Randle (he's gonna be good, perhaps an empty stats guy like Parker, but he'll score and rebound well) or Payton. I am a HUGE believer that players succeed at an insanely high level if their dad/mom played in the NBA or were elite athletes. Kobe, Thompson, Curry, Love, hell even Brewer and a guy like Mike Conley whose dad was an Olympic Gold medalist. The list goes on and on. These kids have been groomed their whole lives to be pros, work their tails off, learn the game, and maximize their abilities for the pro game. If Payton had glaring holes, I'd be scared. But he's got size, great athleticism, a good feel for the game, and so forth. I think he'll struggle a little early but 4-6 years from now be a very good point much like the aforementioned Mike Conley.
There are exceptions to this but in a league where 80% of the guys become nobodies, they're sort of rare.