What's new

Official Round 1 Predictions: Jazz-V-Thunder

rudy gobert has to stay inside while contending shots. thunder exploited that in the beginning of 4th quarter. russ drives, gobert moves forward and inclines towards his body into russ, lose his interior presence, and bum an alleyopp to steven adams.
 
Series predictions/hopes...

1. Quin totally mind ****s Donovan.

2. DM steps it up another level (27, 5, 5 on 40% shooting from 3) reaffirming his status as an up and coming STAR and one of the most dangerous 2way guards in the league.

3. We relentlessly attack OKC's weak defenders in PnR creating open shots on the perimeter whenever Rus and PG help from the weak side.

4. If we can hit our open 3's at >37% we win this series convincingly.

5. Our team defense forces OKC to play in the half court with them relying on Westbrooks midrange pull up to beat us.

6. I think we can frustrate OKC to the point that they implode and Rus tries to take over games reducing PGs role to a spectator.

Jazz in 5.

Lets go Jazz!!!
You pretty much nailed it!
 
And I'm happy to be the foil. You guys can talk **** on me all-day long when the Jazz crush the Thunder.

Tell you what, in order to appease the Jazz gods for my heresy I will take on a new board name if the Jazz win. And I absolutely believe they can win.

Nevertheless, I will lay myself on the mantle of Karl Malone's fireplace for the ritual sacrifice of my name for any name Siro would like to give me, or the board can choose. I'll gladly live with it for a year for the thought that the Jazz could lose having entered my mind.
Reminder
 
Missed this thread earlier, but here is my prediction in Salt City Hoops:


Prediction time!

Allen R. Jazz in 5. They lose game 1 and then win the next 4. They do this by:

· Making Westbrook beat them from above the break (e.g., go under screens) and suffocate PG13 and make him beat you inside where Rudy awaits. They must face-guard PG13, if he goes off from 3, it is “lights out” for the Jazz

· Kill the break by taking care of the ball and not worrying about the offensive glass. If the Jazz are forced into many fast break “Euro fouls,” OKC will get into the penalty and the Jazz will die at the free throw line.

· Making their open 3s. A concern is that three-point shots have high variability, and if the Jazz go cold they could lose a home game, forcing them to find two wins in OKC.


Other input:

Which Jazz player HAS to play well for Utah to win the series?

Allen R. I’m going to cheat a bit and say Quin Snyder. Last time these two teams played, 40 percent of Utah’s minutes went to players who have since departed or fallen out of the rotation. Andre Roberson was in, Gobert was out. So while coaches will generally analyze the regular season match-up to determine initial playoff strategies, they now have a paucity of data. The Game 1 advantage may go to the team that can play the best ad hoc basketball — a possible advantage for Westbrook and Paul George over the scheme-dependent Jazz.

Quin will need to be imaginative to get off on the right foot, and then pivot quickly as the data flows in.


Which OKC player will have a bigger impact on the series than most people think?
Allen R.: We all know what PG13 can do on offense, but his defense will be a huge factor. Westbrook had primary defensive responsibility for Mitchell last time the two teams met, and the rookie went off for 29 points on 12-for-16 shooting. Billy Donovan will not repeat this mistake and George will likely assume primary responsibility, especially in the fourth quarter. Against George’s length and athleticism, expect Donovan to drive and kick, as the Thunder are a poor team at 3-point closeouts. The Thunder will force the Jazz to beat them with 3s from the likes of Crowder, O’Neale, and Rubio. They’ll stay close to Ingles.

What’s fair to expect of Donovan Mitchell and Ricky Rubio in their first playoff series ever?
Allen R.: We all know that rookies struggle with playoff pressure, so why do I just know that Donovan will step up?
 
Fair enough. My eyes tell me that OKC is meh this year and not really any better than last year. The Clippers team was a veteran team that played well together.

But even if you think OKC is better than last years Clippers I would point to stats and the eye test that this current squad is playing much much better than last years Jazz squad this time of year. We rolled into the playoffs with a hobbled Favors, Hill and Hood. Then we lost Gobert right off the bat and we lost Hayward for 1 of the games. On top of that even if healthy that team never played at the high level this team has played at post all-star.
Last year's Clippers team was way better than this OKC team.
 
The biggest thing I notice is that the Thunder's 3 point defense is absolute *** without Roberson, especially the corner 3. Very few teams do more to get wide open 3's than the Utah Jazz.

As long as the Jazz hit their normal percentage from the open 3, and don't settle for contested shots (which they don't have to,) they should be fine.

If Jingles balls out, and Rudy stays out of foul trouble we should have this pretty comfortably.

This held up pretty well. . .
 
Additionally, I am very interested in the Jazz finding a way to put Jingles on Melo. I know he should be defending Paul George, but Joe could find sooooo many ways to get in Melo's head.

It seems like I underestimated the ability of Ingles to get in BOTH George's and Melo's head. Won't make that mistake again.
 
Missed this thread earlier, but here is my prediction in Salt City Hoops:


Prediction time!

Allen R. Jazz in 5. They lose game 1 and then win the next 4. They do this by:

· Making Westbrook beat them from above the break (e.g., go under screens) and suffocate PG13 and make him beat you inside where Rudy awaits. They must face-guard PG13, if he goes off from 3, it is “lights out” for the Jazz

· Kill the break by taking care of the ball and not worrying about the offensive glass. If the Jazz are forced into many fast break “Euro fouls,” OKC will get into the penalty and the Jazz will die at the free throw line.

· Making their open 3s. A concern is that three-point shots have high variability, and if the Jazz go cold they could lose a home game, forcing them to find two wins in OKC.


Other input:

Which Jazz player HAS to play well for Utah to win the series?

Allen R. I’m going to cheat a bit and say Quin Snyder. Last time these two teams played, 40 percent of Utah’s minutes went to players who have since departed or fallen out of the rotation. Andre Roberson was in, Gobert was out. So while coaches will generally analyze the regular season match-up to determine initial playoff strategies, they now have a paucity of data. The Game 1 advantage may go to the team that can play the best ad hoc basketball — a possible advantage for Westbrook and Paul George over the scheme-dependent Jazz.

Quin will need to be imaginative to get off on the right foot, and then pivot quickly as the data flows in.


Which OKC player will have a bigger impact on the series than most people think?
Allen R.: We all know what PG13 can do on offense, but his defense will be a huge factor. Westbrook had primary defensive responsibility for Mitchell last time the two teams met, and the rookie went off for 29 points on 12-for-16 shooting. Billy Donovan will not repeat this mistake and George will likely assume primary responsibility, especially in the fourth quarter. Against George’s length and athleticism, expect Donovan to drive and kick, as the Thunder are a poor team at 3-point closeouts. The Thunder will force the Jazz to beat them with 3s from the likes of Crowder, O’Neale, and Rubio. They’ll stay close to Ingles.

What’s fair to expect of Donovan Mitchell and Ricky Rubio in their first playoff series ever?
Allen R.: We all know that rookies struggle with playoff pressure, so why do I just know that Donovan will step up?

Nice job!
 
Back
Top