Official Utah/Minnesota/Philadelphia Pick Watch

[Handlogten's Heros]

Well I'll be happy to tell you that Vegas strongly disagrees with you. They dont think Ant injury is necessary at all. I've been ranting about their schedule without anyone discussing or even reacting to it... but its about time to wake up and smell the coffee as it smells GREAT.

After last night... here are the latest Fanduel win lines (expected wins at the end of the season) from bottom up:
1. Rockets 19.5 wins <-- Yesterdays line. New line pending from loss to Lakers.
T-2. Pistons 21.5 wins
T-2. Spurs 21.5 wins
4. Hornets 24.5 wins
5. Magic 30.5 wins
T-6. Wizards 34.5 wins
T-6. Thunder 35.5 wins <--- Undervalued.
T-8. Wolves 38.5 wins
T-8. Bulls 38.5 wins
T-8. Lakers 38.5 wins <-- Yesterdays line. New line still pending from yesterdays win over Houston.
T-11. Jazz 39.5 wins
T-11 Raptors 39.5 wins

I think OKC has been heating up lately and could easily go on a run with the 2nd easiest remaining schedule in the league.. hence the undervalued tag. Bulls and Raptors have told they are not pulling the plug but are gonna ride this season out. Still 3 weeks left before deadline so anything can happen ofc... but if they fight for the play in all the way this could be the final lottery ranking.

I mean we’ve been on the schedule since like preseason so it’s not surprising that people here aren’t acting like it’s some revelation. SOS is nice and a lot of times it will play out that way but you never know when good teams are going to get a key injury… look at the Suns right now… warriors without Steph… so the odds that 2 of Phoenix, LA (schedule is rough for them too) OKC, Portland passing Minny with us not falling below them as well… likely rests more on Minnys health rest of the season than just schedule. Lots of things go into Vegas thinking and I’m guessing the Minny over doesn’t attract any action unless it’s set a little low… ain’t like the Lakers that will get a ton of action on the over because of dumb lakers fans.

 

[HermanG]

I mean we’ve been on the schedule since like preseason so it’s not surprising that people here aren’t acting like it’s some revelation. SOS is nice and a lot of times it will play out that way but you never know when good teams are going to get a key injury… look at the Suns right now… warriors without Steph… so the odds that 2 of Phoenix, LA (schedule is rough for them too) OKC, Portland passing Minny with us not falling below them as well… likely rests more on Minnys health rest of the season than just schedule. Lots of things go into Vegas thinking and I’m guessing the Minny over doesn’t attract any action unless it’s set a little low… ain’t like the Lakers that will get a ton of action on the over because of dumb lakers fans.

If you know their schedule has been easy and is gonna turn real ugly... then why do you still believe they are gonna surge without Ant injury? Are you betting on those injuries for other teams will happen regardless?

They suck. With Rudy they cannot score, without Rudy they cannot defend. Been that way all year and its still that way. You saw that with your own eyes yesterday, when they got 0 stops in the 4th against us playing without Lauri. I would appreciate for them to sink even lower and give us like 7th best odds, but that requires too many moving parts to move the right way that even an optimist like myself cannot really buy that.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Minnesota isn’t good. At best they’re .500 and a play-in team. Gobert will be out a few games I’m sure. They are going to start to slide. I don’t think we will end up with like a top-7 pick from them but a top-12 pick is certainly within reason.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If you know their schedule has been easy and is gonna turn real ugly... then why do you still believe they are gonna surge without Ant injury? Are you betting on those injuries for other teams will happen regardless?

They suck. With Rudy they cannot score, without Rudy they cannot defend. Been that way all year and its still that way. You saw that with your own eyes yesterday, when they got 0 stops in the 4th against us playing without Lauri. I would appreciate for them to sink even lower and give us like 7th best odds, but that requires too many moving parts to move the right way that even an optimist like myself cannot really buy that.

I didn’t say they would surge… I said they’d be .500 ish… which is good enough to be a play in team. That was the debate… to sink below the play in Ant will need to miss time or Rudy and Kat struggle to get healthy for longer than anticipated.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Minnesota isn’t good. At best they’re .500 and a play-in team. Gobert will be out a few games I’m sure. They are going to start to slide. I don’t think we will end up with like a top-7 pick from them but a top-12 pick is certainly within reason.

I think the best reasonable hope is they are in the 9/10 game play in and lose or lose in the second play in game. I doubt they fall all the way out of the play in. Suns may end up falling too far... OKC will load manage at some point (maybe not though)... Lakers schedule gets tough... Porty isn't lighting the world on fire right now.

 

[HermanG]

I didn’t say they would surge… I said they’d be .500 ish… which is good enough to be a play in team. That was the debate… to sink below the play in Ant will need to miss time or Rudy and Kat struggle to get healthy for longer than anticipated.

But .500 means they beat that schedule. It means they play better against that schedule than they did against the easier one that lead them to 22-23. I dont see the logic. Its definitely not the best we can hope for... its 3 wins more than Vegas gives them.

I think they might actually finish around 38-44. I tried looking at their games to see which ones they likely win and I can find 10.. while I find 15 they will likely lose. And the other 12 games are cointosses in my mind (including them coming to Utah for one more taste of Kessler).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

But .500 means they beat that schedule. It means they play better against that schedule than they did against the easier one that lead them to 22-23. I dont see the logic. Its definitely not the best we can hope for... its 3 wins more than Vegas gives them.

I think they might actually finish around 38-44. I tried looking at their games to see which ones they likely win and I can find 10.. while I find 15 they will likely lose. And the other 12 games are cointosses in my mind (including them coming to Utah for one more taste of Kessler).

But .500- ish means they will be around .500 the rest of the season. Vegas projections are nice but they will always skew lower... it only takes one thing going wrong to hit the under (one injury for example) and it takes a few things going right to hit the over. So they will set the projections a bit lower. 38-44 may be good enough to make the play in... that is the debate... I doubt they fall out of the play in race without an injury. You also don't know if Vegas projects a star will miss 3-4 games in their projections. It would make sense no?

Also counting wins and losses is cute... pre-season if we had Phoenix on the schedule during the next week or two you'd count two Ls... but now you'd look and say those are surely Ws. All I am saying is SOS is not what I would bank on here as it can deceive. If Ant misses 5-10 games they fall out of the play in is more of a sure thing to bet on than just SOS. Just because the schedule looks hard it doesn't mean they are a sure thing to fall.

 

[sip]

I think the best reasonable hope is they are in the 9/10 game play in and lose or lose in the second play in game. I doubt they fall all the way out of the play in. Suns may end up falling too far... OKC will load manage at some point (maybe not though)... Lakers schedule gets tough... Porty isn't lighting the world on fire right now.

As soon as the suns get healthy they will get on a pretty good roll. With the thunder I would be shocked if they load manage. That would piss off SGA big time and Giddey is turning into a beast. Then you have the lakers about to get AD back but who the heck knows for how long. Hopefully long enough to get firmly in the playoff picture so we don't have to worry about the pelicans hitting gold in the lottery. Portland had the most road heavy schedule in the nba the first half of the season so now they have the most home heavy. They are also getting their bench back with Payton and Little now playing and Winslow should be back soon as well. This second half of the season should be fun with more teams in the playoff picture than ever before and a lot of them having no incentive tank with either not having a pick or older win now stars.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

As soon as the suns get healthy they will get on a pretty good roll. With the thunder I would be shocked if they load manage. That would piss off SGA big time and Giddey is turning into a beast. Then you have the lakers about to get AD back but who the heck knows for how long. Hopefully long enough to get firmly in the playoff picture so we don't have to worry about the pelicans hitting gold in the lottery. Portland had the most road heavy schedule in the nba the first half of the season so now they have the most home heavy. They are also getting their bench back with Payton and Little now playing and Winslow should be back soon as well. This second half of the season should be fun with more teams in the playoff picture than ever before and a lot of them having no incentive tank with either not having a pick or older win now stars.

And I get that... but if we paint rosy colored scenarios for those teams we should do it with Minny too... they will get Kat back... they have had issues with Rudy and other out of the lineup - Prince, Slo-Mo, JMac, Naz... they could do a DLo deal that is addition by subtraction.

The Suns may not get healthy. Book came back early and got hurt again. They free fall for another 3 weeks and I am not sure Book can get to 100% fast enough. They also may not be able to make a move because of new ownership coming in.

All I am saying is banking on a tough schedule to cause the twolves to miss the play in is a bit ambitious... it will take more than a tough schedule.

 

[HermanG]

And I get that... but if we paint rosy colored scenarios for those teams we should do it with Minny too... they will get Kat back... they have had issues with Rudy and other out of the lineup - Prince, Slo-Mo, JMac, Naz... they could do a DLo deal that is addition by subtraction.

The Suns may not get healthy. Book came back early and got hurt again. They free fall for another 3 weeks and I am not sure Book can get to 100% fast enough. They also may not be able to make a move because of new ownership coming in.

All I am saying is banking on a tough schedule to cause the twolves to miss the play in is a bit ambitious... it will take more than a tough schedule.

It takes a bad team with a tough schedule.

Check and check.

And KAT coming back isnt exactly the solution. They are 10-11 with KAT against easier schedule than their 12-12 without him. It makes the fit worse and whatever they gain on offense with KAT they lose on defense with McDaniels being out due to KAT being in.

 

[Elizah Huge]

It takes a bad team with a tough schedule.

Check and check.

And KAT coming back isnt exactly the solution. They are 10-11 with KAT against easier schedule than their 12-12 without him. It makes the fit worse and whatever they gain on offense with KAT they lose on defense with McDaniels being out due to KAT being in.

I just don’t trust them to be good in any scenario. I literally think their ceiling this year is .500.

 

[sip]

And I get that... but if we paint rosy colored scenarios for those teams we should do it with Minny too... they will get Kat back... they have had issues with Rudy and other out of the lineup - Prince, Slo-Mo, JMac, Naz... they could do a DLo deal that is addition by subtraction.

The Suns may not get healthy. Book came back early and got hurt again. They free fall for another 3 weeks and I am not sure Book can get to 100% fast enough. They also may not be able to make a move because of new ownership coming in.

All I am saying is banking on a tough schedule to cause the twolves to miss the play in is a bit ambitious... it will take more than a tough schedule.

I agree completely when it comes to the wolves as well. I'm not in the camp that they suck like a lot of posters on this board. They have pretty much had most things go wrong yet they are still sitting right around .500. It wouldn't shock me at all to see them go on a run and get into that 4-8 range come playoff time.