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On the record...

So back to the actual purpose of this thread...

On the record I want it stated that I unequivocally think rebuilding and tanking is the right strategy for our situation. It was the right move. It's not about getting lucky either... folks will say "you won't get lucky enough to get those guys again" without recognizing that there is also luck involved in those guys not having bad things happen that could make them less valuable... luck plays a part in upside and downside. We limited our exposure here and significantly increased our odds of getting "lucky". Luck is required in all championships... we are trying to make "luck" happen.
 
Having a better core, broadly speaking. But more specifically:
-a core that at least have a good working to relationship and ideally even like each other
-a core where everyone actually, genuinely wants to stay
-a core that aren’t among the last TWO all-stars picked. If it’s among the last three then that’s meaningfully different.
-a core that doesn’t have so many holes that need patching with high-level and nearly equally rare role players.
-a core where there are years to develop and reconfigure the roster. In other words, where the majority of the players are in their 20’s.

And last but certainly not least, the team has to have any meaningful assets and any developing talent in the pipeline.

In case this needs clarification, last year’s team didn’t have those things.
What is crazy is we had this before the COVID year, pretty close to the letter, except the all star thing, which is stupid juvenile **** in the extreme anyway.
 
So back to the actual purpose of this thread...

On the record I want it stated that I unequivocally think rebuilding and tanking is the right strategy for our situation. It was the right move. It's not about getting lucky either... folks will say "you won't get lucky enough to get those guys again" without recognizing that there is also luck involved in those guys not having bad things happen that could make them less valuable... luck plays a part in upside and downside. We limited our exposure here and significantly increased our odds of getting "lucky". Luck is required in all championships... we are trying to make "luck" happen.
90% of the time, luck is where preparation and opportunity meet.


The other 10% of the time, you win the lottery, and move to Cancun.
 
90% of the time, luck is where preparation and opportunity meet.


The other 10% of the time, you win the lottery, and move to Cancun.
I got lucky to form a company and partnership that ended up doing real well... some people will tell you that. I was also grinding and ended up finding the company I partnered with that started my company by cold calling. The particular person I cold called I had called 15+ times and left messages for and when he returned my call he started with "i'll bet you thought I was ignoring you.... actually I had told my ops person to call and set something up and they dropped the ball".

Didn't have to work out that way... there are no guarantees... but I stacked as many odds as I could (reasonably) that's for sure.

If we are patient and smart we have a VERY good chance that "the process" combined with the picks we will get will land a team that has multiple all-stars.
 
What... in the real world when and where are raffle tickets used? I have participated in probably 25 raffles or so... they have been used exclusively by charitable organizations to drive donations where they offer little to no value to the purchaser. It is simply easier to have kids and volunteers "can you purchase these 10 raffle tickets for $20" rather than "can you give me $20 for my charity". Occasionally I will go to a high end golf tournament that has expensive raffle tickets and nicer prizes... its a ****** representation of the actual value of what first round picks truly are. Metaphors are symbolic... raffle tickets are a symbol of something with very little value... use a better symbol if you don't want to give connotations of very little value. A much better metaphor is trading an operating business with cash flow, but also some liabilities and threats, for stock in tech companies... the stock may be worth half what the business is or twice what its worth... but its a more liquid asset and also has value much more in line with first round picks than ****ing raffle tickets (I literally throw 90% of them away or give them to people as I leave whatever event... most of those people don't even want them). When 90% of the people who cover the league are like "holy **** look what they got for Rudy" then I'm gonna have issue with folks saying they got raffle tickets, or lotto tickets, or magic beans, or bed bath and beyond coupons. That isn't making anything up... that is just taking the normal interpretation of a symbol in a metaphor.

Also, spare me the "I can't help you". I don't need help... but so nice of you to offer a poor moron like me some help.

And sure... super plausible that Danny took over a team that had the #1 seed in the conference, had a 20-7 record, and was like I'm going to tank this ****. No one wanted to tank when Danny took over... but sure I'm the one who makes **** up. Danny isn't known for blowing up teams... he's known for getting extreme value in trades... the Brown/Tatum thing is just one of his amazing moves, but his signature move was putting together the KG/Pierce/Allen trio... almost sold off Pierce... but he's nimble and rode it out and took the best path that was presented to him... just like he did with Rudy... just like he will do with Donovan. He didn't have some predetermined will to tank. You can "make your mark" in many different ways... he looked at the results and the locker room and has likely decided the best path forward is a complete tear down... he also might pivot and think we just keep Donovan like he did with Pierce. I think it would be less than ideal but I also don't know what the trade return will be for Don.

Finally, Danny didn't let the last year of Don and Rudy go to waste... Don and Rudy did.... Quin did.... Mike, Royce, etc. The team was lifeless, the locker room was toxic, the scars were too deep. Swapping a few parts and a new coach wasn't going to save it... believe what you want.

It wasn't unpopular to not believe in Don/Rudy. It was very popular to think they were frauds, Rudy especially. Rudy is one of the most polarizing players in the league, and doesn't really fit the mold of guys Danny falls in love with. I don't think it's crazy to think that Danny did not believe in them as a duo. All that we know for sure is that a trade did not happen. The fact that a trade didn't happen does not make me believe a trade could not have happened. Some combination of the Jazz FO overrating our own players and hesitation to invest Don/Rudy caused that to happen. And like I said before, it's never black or white. When met with these decisions, of course you're going to be biased one way or another. Trading a future first was floated around a lot. The tolerance to trade a distant pick is going to be different for everyone and you're essentially making a decision to use it on the Don/Rudy era versus whatever the next version of the Jazz looks like. If I were to speculate, I would say that Danny was tilted towards to the future and not investing in Don/Rudy. I don't think moving a pick was necessary to rearrange the pieces, but likewise decisions would have been presented in terms of long term salary investment.

We also didn't know what the decision making process was in the middle of that transition. Did Danny come in part time and start making decisions and plans right away? It probably wasn't like that, and the incumbent FO probably also had a lot of say in what happened or lack thereof. It is true that the players/coaches lost this themselves. Coaching cannot be forgotten, I think Quin was unique in how toxic he was to this group. But the inaction of the Jazz FO over the last few years is criminal. They didn't do enough for Don/Rudy, and what little they did do was actively toxic.
 
It wasn't unpopular to not believe in Don/Rudy. It was very popular to think they were frauds, Rudy especially. Rudy is one of the most polarizing players in the league, and doesn't really fit the mold of guys Danny falls in love with. I don't think it's crazy to think that Danny did not believe in them as a duo. All that we know for sure is that a trade did not happen. The fact that a trade didn't happen does not make me believe a trade could not have happened. Some combination of the Jazz FO overrating our own players and hesitation to invest Don/Rudy caused that to happen. And like I said before, it's never black or white. When met with these decisions, of course you're going to be biased one way or another. Trading a future first was floated around a lot. The tolerance to trade a distant pick is going to be different for everyone and you're essentially making a decision to use it on the Don/Rudy era versus whatever the next version of the Jazz looks like. If I were to speculate, I would say that Danny was tilted towards to the future and not investing in Don/Rudy. I don't think moving a pick was necessary to rearrange the pieces, but likewise decisions would have been presented in terms of long term salary investment.

We also didn't know what the decision making process was in the middle of that transition. Did Danny come in part time and start making decisions and plans right away? It probably wasn't like that, and the incumbent FO probably also had a lot of say in what happened or lack thereof. It is true that the players/coaches lost this themselves. Coaching cannot be forgotten, I think Quin was unique in how toxic he was to this group. But the inaction of the Jazz FO over the last few years is criminal. They didn't do enough for Don/Rudy, and what little they did do was actively toxic.
Nope... not around here... when Danny took over there was not one real poster saying we should trade those guys and rebuild. You are making up a narrative that did not exist. There is maybe one poster that would have loved to trade Rudy but he is the extreme outlier.

Being tilted towards the future isn't the same as saying - Danny's plan was always to tear it down - which is what you said... no idea if that's what you meant but its what you said.

Saying Don isn't a Danny guy is also just ignoring his track record. Went and got IT... also traded for Kyrie... Don is not a 3 and D wing but Danny has acquired and had success with those types. Danny isn't known as just a blow it up and tear **** down guy. He's known as the guy that isn't married to good and is willing to make big moves one way or another. Its revisionist history to say he was planning to blow it up all along.
 
No one was really calling for us to blow it up... very few around here were on that bandwagon even directly after the playoffs. It was "loser" **** according to a few posters I interacted with.
 
Joe Ingles was hard to replace, I cannot deny that and his injury/age is probably something we (including myself) don't give enough consideration again. If we were to do this all over again, we would have just rolled with Ingles/Mitchell as the backcourt and blown the wad on a wing instead of Conley,

Having said that, the Jazz did a really piss poor job of building around Don/Rudy.
So your answer is hindsight? I'm asking about what the Jazz were supposed to do this offseason to even maintain pretender status. I can do hindsight all night long but that's not what we're talking about.

I also don't think they did a piss poor job building around Don and Rudy. I think Don and Rudy are kinda hard to build around; you need really specific types of pieces since Gobert couldn't do anything with a basketball in his hands (or at least wasn't allowed to) and Mitchell never developed and implemented the glue guy skills he needed to have at his size (most notably running an offense/passing the ball, and playing even good defense).

Around those two, Ingles is the most perfect guy they could've had. Full stop. Given the importance of the off-the-court dynamics, it's like he was made in a lab. Then they needed another scorer/legit star that was taller than Mitchell. They needed a legit point guard that was wing size. They needed a swing big that could guard on the perimeter, reliably space the floor, be an average rebounder, and be able to cover ground to block shots in a switch scheme.

Yeah, in hindsight, maybe blowing the wad on Conley and Bogdanovic wasn't the right call, but considering the difficulty in finding these very uncommon players above, maybe it was since the best window to acquire the best pieces they could was then. That was the offseason to make their move and so they made the moves they could. What that meant was, "**** it, we'll just get the best PG we can and the best spacing big wing that can masquerade as a PF and we'll just bomb away and let Rudy cover the holes."

It could've gone way worse than it did, but the 2020 draft is really the deathblow of all of this and that bungle is the most unforgivable of the bad moves since in one offseason, they:
-passed on two of the rare specimens that could've actually been great pieces in a build around Don/Rudy
-traded out like 4 or 5 second round picks, further limiting their flexibility or ability to improve
-in the process of passing on Bane and McDaniels, they drafted THE ONE GUY that anyone that knew anything could've told you was clear-as-day mistake. They followed that up with signing the corpse of Derrick Favors - a guy that the Jazz had an overabundance of knowledge of his health issues - for the full ****ing MLE THAT PLAYED THE SAME POSITION AS THE GUY THEY JUST DRAFTED (and the same position/skillset as the guy they just spent the Superman on). Then they had to trade a lightly-protected 1st to get rid of him which throws a wrench in all scenarios to come: rebuilding or retooling. The protections make it hard to trade later picks, but they are light enough to very realistically convey a lottery pick.

But again, that's not the point of this exercise. The point is that the Jazz hit a dead end and the question is what to do next, not what should've been done in the past.
 
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Nope... not around here... when Danny took over there was not one real poster saying we should trade those guys and rebuild. You are making up a narrative that did not exist. There is maybe one poster that would have loved to trade Rudy but he is the extreme outlier.

Being tilted towards the future isn't the same as saying - Danny's plan was always to tear it down - which is what you said... no idea if that's what you meant but its what you said.

Saying Don isn't a Danny guy is also just ignoring his track record. Went and got IT... also traded for Kyrie... Don is not a 3 and D wing but Danny has acquired and had success with those types. Danny isn't known as just a blow it up and tear **** down guy. He's known as the guy that isn't married to good and is willing to make big moves one way or another. Its revisionist history to say he was planning to blow it up all along.

Trading future assets was met with heavy resistance here. To say Danny was totally dead set on blowing it up already was probably too much, but I definitely think he shared the strong reservations about investing more into Don/Rudy that were present here. It didn't take a pick to rearrange the pieces either. Like I said, it was some combination of guarding the future and guarding the players currently on the roster. It's the same result....we went into the playoffs with no hope and did not address the obvious weaknesses at all.

As far as saying Don isn't a Danny guy, I can only ask who said that because it definitely was not me. Don was a prospect Danny would have loved for sure. Rudy is a totally different story.
 
-in the process of passing on Bane and McDaniels, they drafted THE ONE GUY that anyone that knew anything could've told you was clear-as-day mistake. They followed that up with signing the corpse of Derrick Favors - a guy that the Jazz had an overabundance of knowledge of his health issues - for the full ****ing MLE THAT PLAYED THE SAME POSITION AS THE GUY THEY JUST DRAFTED. Then they had to trade a lightly-protected 1st to get rid of him which throws a wrench in all scenarios to come: rebuilding or retooling. The protections make it hard to trade later picks, but they are light enough to very realistically convey a lottery pick.
And honestly part of my view was... once the quoted section happened they options got really limited... so what do you expect them to realistically try?

Prior to that it would be fair to say they could have done more. That was the set of things that happened that truly limited our ceiling while providing almost no real value.
 
Nope... not around here... when Danny took over there was not one real poster saying we should trade those guys and rebuild. You are making up a narrative that did not exist. There is maybe one poster that would have loved to trade Rudy but he is the extreme outlier.

Being tilted towards the future isn't the same as saying - Danny's plan was always to tear it down - which is what you said... no idea if that's what you meant but its what you said.

Saying Don isn't a Danny guy is also just ignoring his track record. Went and got IT... also traded for Kyrie... Don is not a 3 and D wing but Danny has acquired and had success with those types. Danny isn't known as just a blow it up and tear **** down guy. He's known as the guy that isn't married to good and is willing to make big moves one way or another. Its revisionist history to say he was planning to blow it up all along.
But let's also run with the idea that Danny was gonna blow it up all along as an exercise. Would it make more sense to:
-Not give a **** how bad the team is and hang them out to dry as they languish? Or
-Have a successful end of the season and trade players at relatively significantly higher values?
 
Trading future assets was met with heavy resistance here.
What future assets are you trading and for what players? And what happens when that duct-tape solution doesn't work and there is no choice but to bottom-out because you just ****ing suck in two years, but now the path to rebuilding is pocked with landmines?
 
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