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over/under jazz wins- 25.5

akirac73 said:
Interesting. So in other words, the odds makers believe the loss of Marvin and Jefferson and the addition of a better coach equals a net zero change in wins.
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Guess the oddsmakers also believe Hayward will have another terrible shooting year and Exum will be about equal to Tinsley/Garrett playing behind Burke. Also, if you follow Hollinger's PER rankings, Booker was much better than Marvin and Novak was about equal to Jefferson.

And, of course, no internal improvement from Gobert, Burke, etc.

If I were a betting man, I'd definitely take the over.
 
Stifle Tower said:
Guess the oddsmakers also believe Hayward will have another terrible shooting year
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Career shooting pct:

2010-2011: .485
2011-2012: .456
2012-2013: .435
2013-2014: .413

Stifle Tower said:
and Exum will be about equal to Tinsley/Garrett playing behind Burke. Also, if you follow Hollinger's PER rankings, Booker was much better than Marvin and Novak was about equal to Jefferson.
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All we know about Exum is what we saw in the summer league (since he didn't play at the world championships). He shot .308 FG, .167 3P, and .647 FT. His assist-to-turnover ratio was less than 1. It is hardly inconceivable he is worse than Tinsley/Garrett this season.

You are going to put money on Booker and Novak... really?

Stifle Tower said:
And, of course, no internal improvement from Gobert, Burke, etc.
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The only Jazz player who improved over the past 2 years is Burks. The other young guys: Hayward, Favors, Kanter, Evans all flatlined.

Stifle Tower said:
If I were a betting man, I'd definitely take the over.
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Probably a good thing you aren't.
 
I am not a big sports better. Really gambling at all besides blackjack, where I do pretty well. So if I were to drop $50 or so on this and take the over and win, how does that pay out? Is it even money or are there some kind of odds that drive it up or down from there?
 
The early season schedule is brutal, but I still think they will win 34ish games. Coach Q "Coach of the year"!
 
akirac73 said:
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-o...s-released-cavs-at-585-favorites-to-win-title

Call me crazy, but I'd also take the over on Philly at 15.5 wins. Philly won 19 games last season even with the obvious incentive to tank. MCW has a year under his belt, and Nerlens Noel will finally play, I just don't see them getting worse. If anything they'll be the same.

And yes, I will bet the over on the Jazz...it's a no-brainer.
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They also have Thaddeus Young for 0% of the year this year.
 
akirac73 said:
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-o...s-released-cavs-at-585-favorites-to-win-title

Call me crazy, but I'd also take the over on Philly at 15.5 wins. Philly won 19 games last season even with the obvious incentive to tank. MCW has a year under his belt, and Nerlens Noel will finally play, I just don't see them getting worse. If anything they'll be the same.

And yes, I will bet the over on the Jazz...it's a no-brainer.
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They also have Thaddeus Young for 0% of the year this year.
 
r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t said:
Career shooting pct:

2010-2011: .485
2011-2012: .456
2012-2013: .435
2013-2014: .413



All we know about Exum is what we saw in the summer league (since he didn't play at the world championships). He shot .308 FG, .167 3P, and .647 FT. His assist-to-turnover ratio was less than 1. It is hardly inconceivable he is worse than Tinsley/Garrett this season.

You are going to put money on Booker and Novak... really?



The only Jazz player who improved over the past 2 years is Burks. The other young guys: Hayward, Favors, Kanter, Evans all flatlined.



Probably a good thing you aren't.
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I'd take issue with most of your observations. All 4 young players have improved. Hayward's shooting % decreased, but assists and rebounds were up. Favors has improved significantly in terms of his offense. Evans has a decent mid-range shot, although he's really not that big a part of the rotation, so insignificant.

I'm not putting "money" on Booker and Novak. I'm just pointing out that the difference between those two and Jefferson/Marvin is essentially zero - and maybe even an upgrade. And as for the PG situation, ANYTHING Exum contributes will be better than what Utah had for the first part of the season with Lucas/Tinsley.

Point is, Jazz didn't really lose anything important from last season (unless you're arguing addition by subtraction). Lindsey strengthened the bench. The team will actually be focused on defense and ball movement. No, this is NOT a 50-win team. They WON'T make the playoffs (although a Phoenix type effort might be a possibility). But 25 wins - i.e. NO improvement - is a ridiculous prediction.
 
r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t said:
Career shooting pct:

2010-2011: .485
2011-2012: .456
2012-2013: .435
2013-2014: .413



All we know about Exum is what we saw in the summer league (since he didn't play at the world championships). He shot .308 FG, .167 3P, and .647 FT. His assist-to-turnover ratio was less than 1. It is hardly inconceivable he is worse than Tinsley/Garrett this season.

You are going to put money on Booker and Novak... really?



The only Jazz player who improved over the past 2 years is Burks. The other young guys: Hayward, Favors, Kanter, Evans all flatlined.



Probably a good thing you aren't.
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These are all excellent points. However you can't undervalue a significant upgrade in coaching. Going from a terrible coach to an average coach should yield a bigger improvement than going from a good coach to a great coach. Snyder even if just decent his 1st year will make a huge difference for the Jazz.

I'd take the over, but I'm a believer that Trey Burke if healthy will take a huge leap in production and efficiency in his 2nd year under a PNR coach like Quin Snyder.
 
da ThRONe said:
These are all excellent points. However you can't undervalue a significant upgrade in coaching. Going from a terrible coach to an average coach should yield a bigger improvement than going from a good coach to a great coach. Snyder even if just decent his 1st year will make a huge difference for the Jazz.

I'd take the over, but I'm a believer that Trey Burke if healthy will take a huge leap in production and efficiency in his 2nd year under a PNR coach like Quin Snyder.
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Yes, I should have mentioned coaching. Give Quin the team last season and I'll bet he gets 30+ wins out of them.

Really, the season was divided up into three parts, IMO.

1. The terrible 1-14 start due to a brutal schedule and Burke's injury resulting in two of the worst PG's in the league running the team.
2. The 20-22 run through the end of February. The team was respectable. Certain players were struggling, but the effort was there.
3. The 4-21 "tank" to finish the season. It was clear Corbin had lost the team and everyone but Burke was just playing out the season.
 
r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t said:
It seems like these guys know what they're doing when making a prediction. See last year's prediction and result, for example.
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Yep. And they hit the nail on the head the year Sloan took the team to 1 win shy of the playoffs when the Jazz were predicted to have the worst record in the history of the NBA. Had it not been for the 4-21 "tank" to finish the season, the Jazz could have/should have finished with 30-35 wins.

With a new coach and players fighting for roster spots and new contracts, I seriously doubt you will see the same level of tanking this year. Lindsey hasn't gone out and spent cap space on acquiring washed up vets for future picks.
 
"Pacers — 32.5" Uhh, Stevens was worth 24 wins or is there something else I'm missing?

That Bulls line is interesting too. I'd probably take the under. Not many teams win 56 games.
 
franklin said:
"Pacers — 32.5" Uhh, Stevens was worth 24 wins or is there something else I'm missing?

That Bulls line is interesting too. I'd probably take the under. Not many teams win 56 games.
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As for the Bulls, they won 48 last year and are adding:

Rose
Gasol
Mirotic
McDermott

Rose will be rusty but I probably would still take the over.
 
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