Potential Trade Possibilities

[Handlogten's Heros]

If you trade Conley for returning salary... here is what you are looking at for next year...

Next year salary of player X - 10M = Tax of 22M so total net addition of 32M
Next year salary of player X - 20M = Tax of 53.7M total net addition of 73.7M
Next year salary of player X - 25M = Tax of 73.6M total net addition of $98.6M

So the player needs to be better than Mike this year... that will be hard to do. They need to be really damn good next year to justify the cost.

Letting Mike walk for nothing is not ideal... but sometimes nothing is better than what you end up taking back. You need to measure anything we are getting back versus Favs, Bojan, and JC... because taking back money for next year means some of those guys are gone... the cost is just too prohibitive.

If we do the Mike plus a first for Fournier and Gordon how much better are we? Mike is better than Fournier imo... Gordon is a really solid addition. Do we win a title? Is that enough for Orlando to blow it up? What if we kept Mike and traded our first... could we get something that doesn't cause catastrophic cap consequences?

Unless Chicago decides they need Mike Conley for some reason... I don't see a trade out there that makes financial and basketball sense.

 

[Elizah Huge]

If you trade Conley for returning salary... here is what you are looking at for next year...

Next year salary of player X - 10M = Tax of 22M so total net addition of 32M
Next year salary of player X - 20M = Tax of 53.7M total net addition of 73.7M
Next year salary of player X - 25M = Tax of 73.6M total net addition of $98.6M

So the player needs to be better than Mike this year... that will be hard to do. They need to be really damn good next year to justify the cost.

Letting Mike walk for nothing is not ideal... but sometimes nothing is better than what you end up taking back. You need to measure anything we are getting back versus Favs, Bojan, and JC... because taking back money for next year means some of those guys are gone... the cost is just too prohibitive.

If we do the Mike plus a first for Fournier and Gordon how much better are we? Mike is better than Fournier imo... Gordon is a really solid addition. Do we win a title? Is that enough for Orlando to blow it up? What if we kept Mike and traded our first... could we get something that doesn't cause catastrophic cap consequences?

Unless Chicago decides they need Mike Conley for some reason... I don't see a trade out there that makes financial and basketball sense.

Super solid post. Maybe the real move is moving our first for a player making under 10M if we’re going to be in the tax regardless.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

And I have been a Conley doubter but I like what they are doing with his role and that we have added size/defense in other spots that might hide his deficiencies. I think we could do better but many of these trades are worse or neutral... to have a big disruption for a neutral move will have a negative effect.

Even the Porter deal... sorry @infection has some downside risk. He's a bigger injury risk imo. I'd do the deal because of the financial impact and bet on his health... but if they want us to add a first they could **** off. Seconds or fruit baskets are fine... but I don't see why they pay more for a guy they need less without some incentive.

The hate has gone way to far on Conley. He still gives this roster something good and in a more appropriate role should be more effective. He's also a guy that has up and down years... I think he could have an up year. If Joe, DM, or JC miss time Mike will be crucial. I think too many on this board look at him like Nic Batum... the washed worthless big contract... he's not that at all.

 

[Elizah Huge]

And I have been a Conley doubter but I like what they are doing with his role and that we have added size/defense in other spots that might hide his deficiencies. I think we could do better but many of these trades are worse or neutral... to have a big disruption for a neutral move will have a negative effect.

Even the Porter deal... sorry @infection has some downside risk. He's a bigger injury risk imo. I'd do the deal because of the financial impact and bet on his health... but if they want us to add a first they could **** off. Seconds or fruit baskets are fine... but I don't see why they pay more for a guy they need less without some incentive.

The hate has gone way to far on Conley. He still gives this roster something good and in a more appropriate role should be more effective. He's also a guy that has up and down years... I think he could have an up year. If Joe, DM, or JC miss time Mike will be crucial. I think too many on this board look at him like Nic Batum... the washed worthless big contract... he's not that at all.

We should have traded for him at the deadline one and a half years ago to get him more implanted and a full playoffs under his belt. I think there is definitely something to continuity and familiarity with the system. I expect a good year from him this year and just don’t like the idea of him leaving without something in return or re-signing him.

 

[NUMBERICA]

It was really adding Favs and paying full price on JC that has us this cap strung... and the weird one year Joe extension. If the want to bring Mike or anyone back for 10-15M it means Favs or JC is likely being traded for no returning salary. Does that make you better? Is Dok ready?

I can see the JC overpay since he’s gonna become our 3rd guy as the aforementioned oldies fall off and/or walk, but the Favors signing? Good gravy, it’s just such an unforced error that compounds other errors like drafting Doke when Bane (who we’re gonna be bummed we didn’t draft, I guarantee that) was sitting there (not to mention Maledon).

It’s fine. Favors is gonna be the best $10 million per year spent on 16 minutes a game for 70 games ever.

 

[LoPo]

If you trade Conley for returning salary... here is what you are looking at for next year...

Next year salary of player X - 10M = Tax of 22M so total net addition of 32M
Next year salary of player X - 20M = Tax of 53.7M total net addition of 73.7M
Next year salary of player X - 25M = Tax of 73.6M total net addition of $98.6M

So the player needs to be better than Mike this year... that will be hard to do. They need to be really damn good next year to justify the cost.

Letting Mike walk for nothing is not ideal... but sometimes nothing is better than what you end up taking back. You need to measure anything we are getting back versus Favs, Bojan, and JC... because taking back money for next year means some of those guys are gone... the cost is just too prohibitive.

If we do the Mike plus a first for Fournier and Gordon how much better are we? Mike is better than Fournier imo... Gordon is a really solid addition. Do we win a title? Is that enough for Orlando to blow it up? What if we kept Mike and traded our first... could we get something that doesn't cause catastrophic cap consequences?

Unless Chicago decides they need Mike Conley for some reason... I don't see a trade out there that makes financial and basketball sense.

Great breakdown.

My concern is that Mike doesn't fit all that well, and then he leaves in the summer. It's not the end of the world if he does, but if he gets us a guy who can play, that's better than hoping our first or minimum type additions hit paydirt.

The way I see it - go all in if you're going all in. If Conley fits great in his new role. Keep him. If he doesn't, get somebody who does fit even if we have to pay them next summer. Bird Rights are massive for us right now. This all comes down to how well Conley fits in the new role and what he potentially wants in the summer.

 

[LoPo]

I can see the JC overpay since he’s gonna become our 3rd guy as the aforementioned oldies fall off and/or walk, but the Favors signing? Good gravy, it’s just such an unforced error that compounds other errors like drafting Doke when Bane (who we’re gonna be bummed we didn’t draft, I guarantee that) was sitting there (not to mention Maledon).

It’s fine. Favors is gonna be the best $10 million per year spent on 16 minutes a game for 70 games ever.

If you think about it, Favors and Udoka costs us $11+ million PLUS the 3 second rounders used to dump the contracts of the guys who played their roles before.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I can see the JC overpay since he’s gonna become our 3rd guy as the aforementioned oldies fall off and/or walk, but the Favors signing? Good gravy, it’s just such an unforced error that compounds other errors like drafting Doke when Bane (who we’re gonna be bummed we didn’t draft, I guarantee that) was sitting there (not to mention Maledon).

It’s fine. Favors is gonna be the best $10 million per year spent on 16 minutes a game for 70 games ever.

I don't think the Favs signing is a mistake per se. The fit in the rest of our moves is questionable. The issue is... say Dok is ready next year. It would make a lot of sense to trade Favs for no returning salary... I think he has a good year and would net something okayish in a trade like that (say a second or two and no returning player). Will DL make the heartless Danny Ainge style trade and send him to NY or Sacramento (insert whatever team you want)?

So I think we will allocate 40M to a starting center and 12M to backups (favs+Dok)... that means you lose other stuff.

Your initial post is I think correct. We are going with minimums next year unless something amazing appears.

 

[framer]

Great breakdown.

My concern is that Mike doesn't fit all that well, and then he leaves in the summer. It's not the end of the world if he does, but if he gets us a guy who can play, that's better than hoping our first or minimum type additions hit paydirt.

The way I see it - go all in if you're going all in. If Conley fits great in his new role. Keep him. If he doesn't, get somebody who does fit even if we have to pay them next summer. Bird Rights are massive for us right now. This all comes down to how well Conley fits in the new role and what he potentially wants in the summer.

Mike probably isn't going to want to go to a team with cap room if he leaves. Likely that would lead to a sign and trade, which is as good if not better than trading him at the deadline.

 

[infection]

And I have been a Conley doubter but I like what they are doing with his role and that we have added size/defense in other spots that might hide his deficiencies. I think we could do better but many of these trades are worse or neutral... to have a big disruption for a neutral move will have a negative effect.

Even the Porter deal... sorry @infection has some downside risk. He's a bigger injury risk imo. I'd do the deal because of the financial impact and bet on his health... but if they want us to add a first they could **** off. Seconds or fruit baskets are fine... but I don't see why they pay more for a guy they need less without some incentive.

The hate has gone way to far on Conley. He still gives this roster something good and in a more appropriate role should be more effective. He's also a guy that has up and down years... I think he could have an up year. If Joe, DM, or JC miss time Mike will be crucial. I think too many on this board look at him like Nic Batum... the washed worthless big contract... he's not that at all.

We really just need to sign RHJ. It's so much more simple than all these trades and other moves. Just sign that guy and ride in on my WCF guarantee.

 

[LoPo]

Mike probably isn't going to want to go to a team with cap room if he leaves. Likely that would lead to a sign and trade, which is as good if not better than trading him at the deadline.

That would work for me.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Great breakdown.

My concern is that Mike doesn't fit all that well, and then he leaves in the summer. It's not the end of the world if he does, but if he gets us a guy who can play, that's better than hoping our first or minimum type additions hit paydirt.

The way I see it - go all in if you're going all in. If Conley fits great in his new role. Keep him. If he doesn't, get somebody who does fit even if we have to pay them next summer. Bird Rights are massive for us right now. This all comes down to how well Conley fits in the new role and what he potentially wants in the summer.

I think he fits what we are trying to do right now. It was only a few pre-season games though. We want to get up and down the floor and shoot a ton of threes... he will help with that and has been shooting well.

Having to replace him with a minimum guy next year sucks but we should know what we have in Oni and have an idea on Hughes/Forrest. So there are some replacements in the pipeline at least.

I'm trying to look at our offseason a little differently and not be such an analytical *******... so ignore the costs...

- We re-signed Donovan.
- We re-signed Rudy.
- We offloaded Ed and TB and Added Favs.
- We kept JC.
- The second year young guys look good.
- Udoka is not the guy I would have picked... maybe he's Capela and a great addition... he's certainly not TB... I mean he killed a man in pre-season.
- Shaq
- We are healthy coming into the year.

Its not super sexy but its very good. The values and efficiency is the issue and that stuff may not matter too much if we are efficient in other ways.