Potential Trade Targets

[Elizah Huge]

On/off stuff can be wonky. It tells part of the story. THT has a higher on/off than Sexton/JC by a significant margin... only one person wants to see him over those guys. Its half a season and we had some big blowouts too... I don't think he's super positive but he's not THIS negative.

That’s a good point.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You need 48 minutes at center. Right now we should likely move away from a 50/50 split but I'm not sure we should go all the way to a 32/16 split between Kessler and Collins. Slide towards 30 minutes for Walker and see what happens maybe. Walker is one of the best rim protectors in the league. John may be one of the worst as a center... he has other pluses. Ultimately you may bring him off the bench. Just be patient for now.

 

[whatthe]

I want Kuz. Taller than Collins and a legit number 2 or 2b. Rather have Yurt/Kessler/Lauri at center.

 

[KqWIN]

Well pick quality matters. Royce was traded for a first that was the worst of 2-3 picks scenario with some great teams in there. It was virtually guaranteed to be a late first. An unprotected pick or lightly protected pick like the Lakers pick is easily worth like 2-3 of those protected picks imo. If we are talking unprotected picks there is no way I'm doing that for Cam. I would settle for budget version Cam with Tech. Hell Tech on his next deal might be worth more than Cam. If we are talking the worst of 3 picks we own type of language I'll talk but Nets are doing that.

It might be okay value but the timing is off. In a year or two is when you'd look at something like that. Value is not a set price its a window... I don't see either team getting to a window that is worth it for both with where they are. Why would we go to the top of the value window to force fetch to happen now? Whats the purpose. Also Cam is currently in the prime of his career... he's older than John.

Also just because I have picks doesn't mean I need to move them... I will move them in deals that move the needle or hold until they convey or until making a medium move makes sense. We are a year or two away from that type of thing making sense and there is still the possibility we move the other direction.

I think Cam is worth one unprotected pick and maybe a heavily protected pick and expiring salary to the right team... we aren't that team yet.

I don't understand the timing thing. Unless you are trying to lose on purpose, it is also good timing to get a great player who is locked into a cost controlled deal while also getting rid of a toxic contract. I don't think you can flip a switch and say, "time to win now" and make all the moves you want to make at once. I think if you could actually make this trade now (spoiler you can't, BKN would not accept), you leap at that opportunity because there's no guarantee you get it later. The timing is good, because you actually make the deal. You wait, you might not find anything better or that player might be traded somewhere else. Part of being in "opportunistic" mode is actually taking the opportunities.

I'm going to be honest, I kinda hate this "move the needle" logic because what that actually means is completely subjective. We shouldn't pass up good deals, plain and simple, any time you can get a player like Cam Johnson for reasonable value that's a good thing. You don't often get that opportunity. I don't care if it moves hypothetical needle that has no real definition. It can mean anything. I think Cam Johnson would be a big asset to the franchise an a step in the right direction. He's super valuable right now and will be for the duration of his contract and possibly beyond. His archetype is so valuable, which is why BKN would not do this trade anyways.

PS: Funny how Tech went from charity case who was only getting preseason minutes out of the goodness of Hardy's heart to potentially being worth more Cam. Things certainly change quickly!

 

[KqWIN]

BTW, I think it's totally fine to just wait out John's contract for the meantime. I wouldn't pay the cost to dump him, which would almost certainly be at least a 1RP. But Cam Johnson is freaking good. That's not making a trade for the sake of making a trade, that's getting a really good cost controlled player.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't understand the timing thing. Unless you are trying to lose on purpose, it is also good timing to get a great player who is locked into a cost controlled deal while also getting rid of a toxic contract. I don't think you can flip a switch and say, "time to win now" and make all the moves you want to make at once. I think if you could actually make this trade now (spoiler you can't, BKN would not accept), you leap at that opportunity because there's no guarantee you get it later. The timing is good, because you actually make the deal. You wait, you might not find anything better or that player might be traded somewhere else. Part of being in "opportunistic" mode is actually taking the opportunities.

I understand you can't just waive a wand and win now. Move the needle means to me... does this player take us from a borderline play in team to a certain play in spot? I don't think he does. I think our time to win is 2-3 years from now... will Cam be awesome then... probably but he'll be 30 and start the backside of his career as we are really prioritizing winning. Its not hard to understand the timing thing imo. Winning is not the number one priority right now. Does it mean you do no deals until you are a contender or only ones that guarantee contender status? Nope... but if you are putting in your premium assets like multiple unprotected picks... then the deal better do more than re-arrange the deck chairs on the the play-in titanic.

I'm going to be honest, I kinda hate this "move the needle" logic because what that actually means is completely subjective. We shouldn't pass up good deals, plain and simple, any time you can get a player like Cam Johnson for reasonable value that's a good thing. You don't often get that opportunity. I don't care if it moves hypothetical needle that has no real definition. It can mean anything. I think Cam Johnson would be a big asset to the franchise an a step in the right direction. He's super valuable right now and will be for the duration of his contract and possibly beyond. His archetype is so valuable, which is why BKN would not do this trade anyways.

Explained above but his maximum value is the next 2-4 years when we aren't going all in for winning for half that period. I don't think he is an appreciating asset and the picks will increase as they get closer and may have a huge increase in value if the teams suck. We could play it safe or we can accept more risk and have a much higher ceiling for the asset. If you are trying to win the title you will need more upside. Doesn't mean you get wild and invest your 401k in lotto tickets but don't put your money in high interest savings accounts and expect to become a billionaire.

PS: Funny how Tech went from charity case who was only getting preseason minutes out of the goodness of Hardy's heart to potentially being worth more Cam. Things certainly change quickly!

Its why you don't sell off players and assets at their lowest point because of impatience. Ride it out and give it time.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

BTW, I think it's totally fine to just wait out John's contract for the meantime. I wouldn't pay the cost to dump him, which would almost certainly be at least a 1RP. But Cam Johnson is freaking good. That's not making a trade for the sake of making a trade, that's getting a really good cost controlled player.

By your trade math here we should move 3 picks and Collins for Cam right?

 

[Tremendous Upside]

I think our time to win is 2-3 years from now... will Cam be awesome then... probably but he'll be 30 and start the backside of his career as we are really prioritizing winning. Its not hard to understand the timing thing imo.

Yes it is. I mean... the existence of that "winning window" is certainly a popular view among the armchair GM gang, but the problem is that its not based on anything. It's just an arbitrary point in time people have invented. We don't know what the "plan" is.

Hell, 2 years from now is literally just around the corner. So we should suddenly put the pedal to the metal then, but without the quality vets we could acquire now?

I'm just not seeing Keyonte and Hendricks carrying this team to contender status in two years.

 

[KqWIN]

I understand you can't just waive a wand and win now. Move the needle means to me... does this player take us from a borderline play in team to a certain play in spot? I don't think he does. I think our time to win is 2-3 years from now... will Cam be awesome then... probably but he'll be 30 and start the backside of his career as we are really prioritizing winning. Its not hard to understand the timing thing imo. Winning is not the number one priority right now. Does it mean you do no deals until you are a contender or only ones that guarantee contender status? Nope... but if you are putting in your premium assets like multiple unprotected picks... then the deal better do more than re-arrange the deck chairs on the the play-in titanic.

Explained above but his maximum value is the next 2-4 years when we aren't going all in for winning for half that period. I don't think he is an appreciating asset and the picks will increase as they get closer and may have a huge increase in value if the teams suck. We could play it safe or we can accept more risk and have a much higher ceiling for the asset. If you are trying to win the title you will need more upside. Doesn't mean you get wild and invest your 401k in lotto tickets but don't put your money in high interest savings accounts and expect to become a billionaire.


Its why you don't sell off players and assets at their lowest point because of impatience. Ride it out and give it time.

I don't think we'll get to that point in 2-3 years where it's time to win if we don't significantly upgrade our talent. Holding on to 2 future firsts and John Collins certainly isn't doing that either. It's not just going to happen organically. To me, this trade is extremely good for us not only because Cam is a very good player but it also knocks of JC's deal. That's a good thing if you're a team trying to accomplish anything in the winning direction. I just don't think we're in any position to reject good opportunities because we will hypothetically be in a position to win 2-3 years from now without them. Restricting ourselves to deals that will theoretically catapult us past some arbitrary made up line is not the way to go about imo.

This can only be seen as rearranging the deck chairs if you think JC and Cam are similar level players who bring similar on court value. I do not see that at all. Cam is a big upgrade and one worth 2+ first round picks IMO.

By your trade math here we should move 3 picks and Collins for Cam right?

Depends on the picks, but yeah there's a reason why I said 2+. You said one unprotected and one protected for Cam alone. I'm obviously higher on Cam, but lets go with your evaluation. Yeah, seems fair to add in another pick if you want to get of John's contract at the same time instead of an expiring contract.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yes it is. I mean... the existence of that "winning window" is certainly a popular view among the armchair GM gang, but the problem is that its not based on anything. It's just an arbitrary point in time people have invented. We don't know what the "plan" is.

Hell, 2 years from now is literally just around the corner. So we should suddenly put the pedal to the metal then, but without the quality vets we could acquire now?

I'm just not seeing Keyonte and Hendricks carrying this team to contender status in two years.

Its really not. If we had THEE GUY then go ahead and start assembling the stuff you need to put around that guy even if he isn't quite ready right now. If we had Chet, Paolo, Wemby then go ahead and start adding guys to supplement that dude. Lauri is nice but he's like a top 20-25 guy and has a blessing and a curse. Can do his work without the ball but also not a self creator so tough to ramp him up. If you have one all star you don't go acquiring glue guys with your prime trade assets. If Cam was 23-24 and I thought there was more to his game... then go get him. He's essentially at his peak in terms of trade value and play and it would be like 4th starter on a contender type stuff. If you have the #1 or #2 and #3 guys in place you might go get him now I guess. Getting Cam is just putting the cart before the horse.

Cam is also a player you can get away with getting the Kirkland brand version of what he brings. Simone is Kirkland Cam... If we flipped 2-3 prime picks and Collins for Cam how much better are we. Like it would push Simone to the bench and Kessler gets starter minutes but Yurt is like replacement level. Do we win 2-3 more games each year for a couple years? Is going from 35 wins to 38 wins all that critical? You start buying guys like Cam when you don't have reasonable replacements AND you are currently like a playoff team or contender. We are like 2 steps away from that right now.

With the window I was actually talking about the "worth it window" where value is a range. Is Cam worth 1.72 first round picks or is it more fluid than that? Right now they likely don't sell for 1 unprotected pick and JC... but that is what it would be worth to me with where we are. They might need 3 picks to do it... so the worth it windows don't align.

The league is so skilled and good. If we had a guy on Lauri's level then I'd say go ahead and pay full market on a guy like Cam I guess. For me to dip into picks I need to get someone that is a borderline AS that drives winning... not just a guy that supports winning.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't think we'll get to that point in 2-3 years where it's time to win if we don't significantly upgrade our talent. Holding on to 2 future firsts and John Collins certainly isn't doing that either. It's not just going to happen organically. To me, this trade is extremely good for us not only because Cam is a very good player but it also knocks of JC's deal. That's a good thing if you're a team trying to accomplish anything in the winning direction. I just don't think we're in any position to reject good opportunities because we will hypothetically be in a position to win 2-3 years from now without them. Restricting ourselves to deals that will theoretically catapult us past some arbitrary made up line is not the way to go about imo.

This can only be seen as rearranging the deck chairs if you think JC and Cam are similar level players who bring similar on court value. I do not see that at all. Cam is a big upgrade and one worth 2+ first round picks IMO.



Depends on the picks, but yeah there's a reason why I said 2+. You said one unprotected and one protected for Cam alone. I'm obviously higher on Cam, but lets go with your evaluation. Yeah, seems fair to add in another pick if you want to get of John's contract at the same time instead of an expiring contract.

Gonna go ahead and just disagree and walk away from the convo because I can't reconcile with the idea that Cam an older player than John, on a similar contract, and who's individual production isn't much different is worth 2+ firsts and John is worth -1.

I am also of the opinion that there is a chance we go the other way and trade Lauri at some point. Its not the most likely path but its a possibility. You have to have top 10 player to win at the highest levels and the best place to find that is the top of the draft. We don't have that guy on the roster now... doesn't look like Key or Taylor will be that. At some point we may give up being the plucky play in team and go full process. There also may be an opportunity to go get a guy that will require 4-6 picks to be that guy for us... at that point I would lament paying half of that for Cam Johnson.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I also do think you can put the pedal to the medal and get a trade or two done when its obvious its winning time. Especially if you don't sell low on Collins or buy right now on guy like Johnson. Like if OKC wanted Cam Johnson right now they could make an offer to get him. Cam is good player but he's not completely unique and someone you couldn't find a reasonable facsimile for.