Regression to the mean

Discussion in 'Utah Jazz' started by infection, Nov 10, 2019 at 8:03 PM.

  1. infection

    infection Well-Known Member Staff Member 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

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    Perhaps a more apt title could be progression to the mean. Anyway, a number of nuggets out in the past day that we have had the hardest schedule in the league thus far. 538 has us now projected as second in the west and 57 wins. We’re 6-3 with our offense being one of the worst in the league. We’re favored in 36 of our next 38 games. Our defense looks as good as it has (toot my own horn [and knock on wood] to state that I’ve said I did not believe we took steps back defensively]).

    So we’re still in an adjustment period. Conley’s been way below even an outlier. Ingles hasn’t really done anything. Rudy’s D has been Rudy’s D. Donovan has been much more efficient and Bojan is having a career year so far. Still a lot of improvement to yet expect as things jel (gel?). That said, rather than talk about hypotheticals, I’d be interested in seeing what this team looked like if we removed a few of the anomalies and outliers and substituted in historical averages. The negative anomalies seem to greatly outweigh the potential positive ones (i.e. Donovan is probably much more likely to be playing at form than Conley is). If anyone has any more comparisons to put out, whether good or bad, please share.

    Since we have at least a rough sketch of what our offensive balance (in terms of who’s getting shots) may look like, I’ve calculated out what each player would be scoring if they took the exact same shots, but instead shot their career averages rather than this year’s averages.

    Conley’s scoring bumps from 13.6 ppg to 16 ppg (+2.4 ppg)

    Mitchell’s decreases from 24.8 ppg to 23.7 ppg (-1.1 ppg).

    Ingles goes from 7.9 ppg to 8.6 ppg (+0.7 ppg).

    Bojan I didn’t bother calculating because his FG% is the same. Three and FTs are up a bit.

    I’m not sure what to make of Gobert because it’s hard to say what quantity of shots he’ll get, but I’d imagine this picks up. He’s averaging 10.9 ppg while the past three seasons were 15.9, 13.5, and 14 ppg.

    Conley is averaging 3.1 turnovers per game in 4 mpg less than last year when he averaged 1.9. His career is 2 TOV/game. His TOV% is 17.8 this year compared to 9.1 last year.

    Joe is the anomaly I’m worried most about not being able to rebound to previous levels. That said, his shooting surely will be much better than 36.7% and 31.7%.

    I see Donovan’s efficiency possibly being a bit elevated, but there’s every reason to be optimistic that what we’ve seen is a trend (even if inflated) and that this is more sustainable than simply assuming a regression to the mean. Conley, on the other hand, is a complete outlier, in both shooting and turnovers. Turnovers I’d anticipate to drop below career averages because he’s handling the ball less.

    Anyhow, there are lots of variables from our small sample size, but I’m encouraged with where we’re at, especially with how poorly we’ve played in some regard, and how the positive outliers seem to have good evidence for being legitimate while the negative outliers seem to have a lot of evidence to refute them being anything more than an outlier that shouldn’t continue, at least not as poorly as it has.

    Would love any other thoughts or any other angles to see this.
     
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  2. JazzMan4Life

    JazzMan4Life Well-Known Member Contributor

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    Nice post, would rep. This is the only thing I would disagree with. Ingles is adjusting to a new role and will improve in that area and don't forget who inbounded the last play against the bucks to get Bogey that shot.
     
  3. infection

    infection Well-Known Member Staff Member 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

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    What I mean is a consistent impact. He hasn’t been himself. I think he needs to start.
     
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  4. fishonjazz

    fishonjazz Well-Known Member Contributor 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

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    Jazz gonna win the championship

    That's all I have to add.

    Good thread

    Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
     
  5. Jazz

    Jazz Well-Known Member

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    Joe doesn't need to shoot well to make a impact. He does so many things well on a basketball court. Leave Joe alone. He's a Aussie champion
     
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  6. NUMBERICA

    NUMBERICA Well-Known Member

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    I generally agree, but I also feel this team lacks size, "force" (to quote Lowe), and depth that could be a problem for a very, very long season.

    I think the Jazz need to address at least two of three of those things before the trade deadline which could cause some headaches in acclimating the new piece, but I think it will be necessary in the end if the aspirations for a championship are serious.

    I have been consistent on the points that the Jazz are great but that some of the bigger-picture aspects (rebounding, lack of a legit 4, depth, athleticism) of the roster could stand to improve. But when this team is clicking, they're gonna be hard to beat.
     
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  7. infection

    infection Well-Known Member Staff Member 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

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    The only way for us to get a meaningful upgrade in size will require us to move Exum. You’d be looking at a Morris, Portis, Aminu, or if you stretched it a bit by adding some contracts, an Ibaka. The last one perhaps fairly unrealistic (all unrealistic, to a degree), but Ibaka could be like Favors for us. Could play with Gobert as well as backup C.
     
  8. kabenac

    kabenac Well-Known Member

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    I feel we'll be a better team in April. Not just because players will click and get used to playing alongside one another but I HOPE we'll grab a waiver wire player who can help us (after we trade someone like Niang for a 2025 2nd rounder).

    Also, I'm not expecting much from Exum offensively but his defense will be a big asset, especially during the playoffs.
     
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  9. NUMBERICA

    NUMBERICA Well-Known Member

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    Yep. I believe that's why Mudiay is here and no one can really convince me otherwise. On the flipside, I'm not sure why anyone but an absolutely desperate, talent-bereft disaster would trade for Exum, but the good news is the Knicks still exist.
     
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  10. Jingled

    Jingled Well-Known Member 2019 Award Winner

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    Not sure what's going on with Joe...he didn't look right in last years playoffs and he hasn't so far this season either. His defensive numbers are still good and he doesn't really look like he's lost a step (doesn't seem any slower than usual). He's having trouble scoring and his shot just seems to have abandoned him. It seems more mental than physical.
     
  11. SCS

    SCS Well-Known Member

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    I can't wait until we go on a huge run. I'm soooooo tired of hearing about how the Lakers and Clippers "consensus top 2 teams" and "if they play to their potential nobody can touch them" .... Blah blah blah blah blah
     
  12. infection

    infection Well-Known Member Staff Member 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

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    Tony Jones, as a Knicks fan, has been bemoaning their fate on Twitter this evening. He mentioned something about them not having a point guard. They’ve got a couple guys we can use. Perhaps Tony can take a bit of that Exum hype the FO has been passing to him and get the Knicks on board with him being their PG answer with his untapped potential for being special. But probably not, because Tony is, you know, a Knicks fan, and where the rubber has to actually meet the road he probably doesn’t buy the smoking coming out of the FO’s *** when it comes down to it.
     
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  13. str8line

    str8line Well-Known Member Contributor 2019 Award Winner

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    Regression to the mean leads us to progression to the nice.
     
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  14. str8line

    str8line Well-Known Member Contributor 2019 Award Winner

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    I've actually thought he looks like he's moving like a bit of an old man. He needs a little Karl Malone pep talk.
     
  15. infection

    infection Well-Known Member Staff Member 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

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    Thinking back on this... what about Rondae Hollis-Jefferson? He plays the three but he’s big enough and strong enough that I’d imagine he can body any of the guys were worried about. How’s his D? All I know is that when he’s played us, he’s been a tough energy guy that seems to make impact. Not a great shooter, but a good guy off the bench. Boards well (9 rebounds per 36), and makes like $2.5M. He’s on Toronto. Perhaps when Davis gets back, cash in on any Tony Bradley value as the Raptors have aging Gasol and Ibaka.
     
  16. Rubashov

    Rubashov Well-Known Member 2019 Award Winner

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    You left out Royce having by far his best and most productive season of his career on both ends of the floor.
     
  17. infection

    infection Well-Known Member Staff Member 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

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    Playing good D. Three point percentage up quite a bit. Three point attempts per minute down. Points, rebounds, and assists per minute all career lows.
     
  18. Douchebag K

    Douchebag K Well-Known Member

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    Ibaka on this team would be so sick.
     
  19. infection

    infection Well-Known Member Staff Member 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

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    Would be nice. But it would take Exum + Davis + a bunch of throw-ins to make salary work. Hard to do a 5-for-1 trade.
     
  20. Rubashov

    Rubashov Well-Known Member 2019 Award Winner

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    His D is second only to Rudy, often gets the hardest assignment, really has taken his game to another level this year.
     
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