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Rest Easy, The Jazz Will Be Awful

Handlogten's Heros said:
I think the floor is also very important though as bottom 3-4 you are pretty likely to land top 5. At 4 its 60% chance at top 5 and 85% chance at top 6. You land 6 and 55%+ chance at 7th or later.
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Yeah....but then it's the difference between 5 and 7/8 or whatever. The flattened odds did make it more of a lottery, but I still don't care to watch Olynyk and Conley lead us to 5 more wins at that cost. Honestly, I'd rather have those two spots filled in by rotating G-League guys.

I actually think the Jazz are somewhat similar to the Grizzlies now that I think about it. We half a playoff team just like they did. They just happened to jump from #8 to #2 and the #2 pick happened to be Ja Morant. Praying on a miracle, otherwise you are the Wizards/Kings/Knicks.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Another Teardown: Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks were a 5th seed in the Eastern Conference in 2016/17 with 43 wins. It was the end of the Millsap/Korver era, after which the Hawks decided to blow things up. In 2017/18, the Hawks were projected to win 27 games, but finished last in the EC with 24 wins. They ended up with the 3rd pick in the draft and traded back with Dallas to swap Luka Doncic for Trae Young. Later in the first round, they drafted Kevin Huerter. The following season, the Hawks finished with 28 wins and traded with the Pelicans in the draft to move up from #8 to #4 for Deandre Hunter.

2017 Draft
John Collins (#19)

2018 Draft
Trae Young (#3)
Kevin Huerter (#19)

2019 Draft
Deandre Hunter (#4)
Cam Reddish (#10)

2020 Draft
Onyeka Okongwu (#6)
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FWIW, the Jazz should be in a better position than the Hawks since the Jazz have a pile of assets from trading their All Stars, which the Hawks didn't have.
 
KqWIN said:
Yeah....but then it's the difference between 5 and 7/8 or whatever. The flattened odds did make it more of a lottery, but I still don't care to watch Olynyk and Conley lead us to 5 more wins at that cost. Honestly, I'd rather have those two spots filled in by rotating G-League guys.

I actually think the Jazz are somewhat similar to the Grizzlies now that I think about it. We half a playoff team just like they did. They just happened to jump from #8 to #2 and the #2 pick happened to be Ja Morant. Praying on a miracle, otherwise you are the Wizards/Kings/Knicks.
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Maybe so. I don't think you have to be the Wiz Kings Knicks if you don't get a miracle. I think you can be Dallas, Atlanta, Memphis, Phoenix too.

All roads lead to failure... and all roads lead to success. I think we give ourselves the best chance at success by drafting top 5 the next two years combined with the future picks and youngish talent... I think we could make trades to jump past the Kings, Knicks, and Wiz by this year or next if we wanted.

You have to have some things lucky things go in your favor fo sho.
 
As far as culture goes, I don't think it is wise to throw a bunch of 22 year olds out there to fumble around and hope they lose. You need to play functional basketball and need players on the team that can run an offense or anchor a defense, even if they aren't top drawer. You aren't developing anyone losing by 20 every night. And if you have a potential star, you are just wasting their potential and years under control.

What do you think Donovan or Rudy look like if they had been drafted by the Kings? SGA is going to fall short of his potential with his misadventures in OKC. He's also going to bail at his first opportunity.

Rebuilding is a lot harder than just racing to the bottom, even the teams that do that don't have a great record of success.
 
framer said:
As far as culture goes, I don't think it is wise to throw a bunch of 22 year olds out there to fumble around and hope they lose. You need to play functional basketball and need players on the team that can run an offense or anchor a defense, even if they aren't top drawer. You aren't developing anyone losing by 20 every night. And if you have a potential star, you are just wasting their potential and years under control.

What do you think Donovan or Rudy look like if they had been drafted by the Kings? SGA is going to fall short of his potential with his misadventures in OKC. He's also going to bail at his first opportunity.

Rebuilding is a lot harder than just racing to the bottom, even the teams that do that don't have a great record of success.
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I mean SGA signed an extension for the max length with no options so I think maybe you might be wrong that he will bail at his first opportunity.

While I think there is some truth to what you are saying... I think you need the top talent more than the amazing culture. SA has great culture... last few years it hasn't worked doe. Once you get the top talent you'd do really well to make sure its a functional environment... those environments are fungible and the awesome culture you provided for Walker Kessler that landed you the #6/7 pick isn't going to carry you to more wins than getting a top 2 or 3 guy. Nothing is guaranteed but I'd be working to offload at least one of JC and Mike... likely wouldn't have done a deal to bring in KO. The culture benefits we get from Mike and KO being here won't have a material future effect when we are trying to compete in a couple years... if that culture produced 5 more meaningless wins and a worse pick.

Its going to be a long 82 games regardless of if we win 28 games and have a -7 pt differential or win 23 games and have a -12 pt diff. The difference in pick value could be franchise altering. Its just math.
 
If we are 6th or 7th in the lottery and 4 teams jump over us we’re going to be picking 10th or 11th. And we’ve wasted a rare opportunity. I want to be the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked. The best chance we have of an impact player is to get the highest lottery pick possible.
 
Teams like the Knicks and Wizards always end up treadmilling with a pick in the 7-11 range mainly due to mediocre vets such as the Fournier, etc. Those culture wins can cost a shot at a franchise player. In the case of the Jazz it's not like they will be throwing out a bunch of 19 year olds as their 2 rookies Kessler and Agbaji are already 21/22.
 
Jazz and Detroit are going to be close to one another in the standings. I might argue that Detroit has better roster composition, but some of their key players are still very young. The Houston Rockets are similar.

The key to the Jazz's tank is players playing outside of their best role. For example, I'm not convinced that Collin Sexton is really a point guard whom you have run your team. Malik Beasley is a kick-out option, but the Jazz don't have anyone to collapse the defense and get him airspace. Lauri Markkanen is a play finisher, but he needs someone to set him up and Conley might be the only one who can do that. Kelly Olynyk is really a backup, 3rd-big type, but he's probably going to log the most minutes at the 5.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Jazz and Detroit are going to be close to one another in the standings. I might argue that Detroit has better roster composition, but some of their key players are still very young. The Houston Rockets are similar.

The key to the Jazz's tank is players playing outside of their best role. For example, I'm not convinced that Collin Sexton is really a point guard whom you have run your team. Malik Beasley is a kick-out option, but the Jazz don't have anyone to collapse the defense and get him airspace. Lauri Markkanen is a play finisher, but he needs someone to set him up and Conley might be the only one who can do that. Kelly Olynyk is really a backup, 3rd-big type, but he's probably going to log the most minutes at the 5.
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Saben Lee will lead us to the promised land.
 
Douchebag K said:
mate i didn't even initiate that I just got an email telling me of a change to subscription when it was due to be renewed .. then bam !
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Same in between emails about Belarusian prostitutes, STD clinics, penis extensions and power bills was another email I didnt give a **** about.

My enthusiasm about this season is non-existent I'll certainly not be running late to work to watch games or missing sleep this year.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
** It's not clear to me how much the Jazz really like Walker Kessler and whether he fits what they want from the center position. It's possible that he was a throw-in in the Gobert trade.
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Zero chance he was a throw in. You don’t pick a guy in the first round who you consider has zero value. Also, draftees on the roster are essential to cap management. And I’m sure minny wanted lower value salary filler and Danny pressed for youth to develop
 
My actual feeling is they should not be on a full tanking mode despite the lost players. The players they got in return are too good already to tank full tank mode and would have to be injured or sandbaggin for the idea to work. Well, that or the rookie coach has a pass to use terrible line ups, despite his options. SOrt of like he is right now. I don't like teams tanking if they can win, it has failed so many that try since the odds change. Look at the types of players that were missed on by the biggest tanking teams in 19. Pels jumped got Zion and Memphis got Ja ,not Phoenix or NY . Meanwhile, the Heat got Herro late lottery and Kevin Porter fell to 30.
In 2020 only the 2 worst teams stayed in the top 2, Cavs dropped to 5 missing out on Ball, and Detroit got stuck with Hayes. 76ers didnt draft to after the lottery, and stole Maxey.
Tanking is only worth it if you are willing to spend 5 years doing it.
 
Douchebag K said:
yeah any lurking fears i had that we might be too good are G A W N We're gonna be a superb mess

#Wemby
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If the rookie coach keeps using this "no team" approach he should be granted the golden joystick. He also will punch his ticket to never having a decent HC job again outside of Utah if he does that.
I think they get rid of JC and Gay if not at the deadline sooner. I would like to see THT included in that since he clearly is not interested in being here.
 

View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1577751605436420098



This is also another problem. A couple teams start bad and join the tank race. Now you won 30 games with all your culture talk... or more cuz other teams outtanked you... and now you got to the 8/9 spot for all your pain.

I hope we called LA today and were like... so Mike/Beasley/Vando for one first? How about Mike/JC/Gay straight up... no picks at all.
 
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