Who can tell us our defensive numbers with Favors next to Gobert vs. anyone else next to Gobert but the same other 3 players? I'm not really convinced we lose much defensively. I think Favors' value to us defensively is diminished with him at the 4, and I don't believe the drop off to Davis is that big, plus the added possessions for his significantly better rebounding.
Why?The Clips are just 55.5, Rox 53.5, Nuggets 52.5, Lakers 51.5...our number being that high scares me.
Why?
That's perfect because I'm anticipating 56-57 wins exactly.Each point in point differential translates to 2.7 expected wins over the season, according to the standard rule of thumb. So the 2.34 extra points theoretically translates to 6.3 additional wins. That would put us at 56-57 wins next year.
I'd caution, however, that all the comments arguing about how the point differential should really be higher than 2.34 (though not totally without merit) are too optimistic overall, I think. (LogGrad's 9-point differential would have us at 74 wins, for example.) We're expecting best-case scenarios and ignoring everything else. It seems we're setting ourselves up for a hard fall with this type of reasoning if it turns out that we don't have a 60-win season. I don't think that's realistic.
That's perfect because I'm anticipating 56-57 wins exactly.
Because we’ve always played better as the dog. And also because Vegas always wins...so if everyone is betting the over...
Each point in point differential translates to 2.7 expected wins over the season, according to the standard rule of thumb. So the 2.34 extra points theoretically translates to 6.3 additional wins. That would put us at 56-57 wins next year.
I'd caution, however, that all the comments arguing about how the point differential should really be higher than 2.34 (though not totally without merit) are too optimistic overall, I think. (LogGrad's 9-point differential would have us at 74 wins, for example.) We're expecting best-case scenarios and ignoring everything else. It seems we're setting ourselves up for a hard fall with this type of reasoning if it turns out that we don't have a 60-win season. I don't think that's realistic.
then they just keep raising the line. They are just trying to balance the over and under getting each at close to 50% is how they win.
I know what they’re doing and why. My point is, to this point, most ppl, maybe even the far majority, is betting the over. Setting it now at 54.5 does not necessarily mean ppl will bet the under. Tbh not an overly scientific thing. More just whenever one thing is bet, the other thing usually comes in. It’s like this way in the nfl. My buddy runs a pool every year. Whenever one team is bet by 80+% of the participants, the other team covers like 80% of the time. Not saying I’m right btw. This is just what my lifelong addiction tells me.
With the line set at 54.5, you would be betting on an injury to Gobert or one of the other starters on the under. Not much room for error with a margin like that. Chances are, there WILL be an injury. Championship teams generally get the lucky break of avoiding them. on paper the jazz are definitely 4.5 games better than last year.
It's a bigger effect than just the raw points. It would have dramatically changed defenses played against us. It would have opened up more opportunities for other players. I bet it would be at least 3x that in real point differential. At 9 pts it will really change the outcome of many games. Hard to quantify really but I believe it would have had a pretty strong impact.
According to https://www.nbastuffer.com/analytics101/projected-winning-percentage/, "Each point of differential translates to 2.7 wins over the course of the season." So 2.34 additional ppg would translate to 6 more wins.Some stats whiz tell us what 2.34 ppg of differential means in the big picture.
I feel totally comfortable claiming that if Conley and Bojan were on the team last year instead of Ricky and Jae, they would have combined for more than 776 attempts.So the idea has been mentioned previously about imaging all the threes Rubio and Crowder shot being shot by Conley and Bogdanovic, so I wanted to give a short breakdown:
Last year Ricky and Jae combined for 776 threes, which is 29% of all our threes. They combined for 32.5%.
Last year Mike and Bojan combined for 784 threes on 40.7%.
As the total attempts are nearly identical, I'm going to correct each total by splitting the difference and assuming 780 attempts. The difference between Ricky/Jae and Mike/Bojan is 9.27 ppg vs. 11.61 ppg, or 2.34 ppg.
Some stats whiz tell us what 2.34 ppg of differential means in the big picture.
So the idea has been mentioned previously about imaging all the threes Rubio and Crowder shot being shot by Conley and Bogdanovic, so I wanted to give a short breakdown:
Last year Ricky and Jae combined for 776 threes, which is 29% of all our threes. They combined for 32.5%.
Last year Mike and Bojan combined for 784 threes on 40.7%.
As the total attempts are nearly identical, I'm going to correct each total by splitting the difference and assuming 780 attempts. The difference between Ricky/Jae and Mike/Bojan is 9.27 ppg vs. 11.61 ppg, or 2.34 ppg.
Some stats whiz tell us what 2.34 ppg of differential means in the big picture.
Hmmm that's not completely true, teams that don't really make moves like Denver this offseason and Utah last offseason should have similar records the next season.Win totals year to year have nothing to do with the talent or potential of a team. Every team makes changes. The Jazz are not going to have the highest win total, but they are going to win the Championship this year. They're destined.