Rubio/Crowder threes vs. Conley/Bogdanovic threes

Lakers_Slapper

Well-Known Member
Hmmm that's not completely true, teams that don't really make moves like Denver this offseason and Utah last offseason should have similar records the next season.

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So because Utah didn't make moves last offseason (2017), they'll have a similar record they had that year to this upcoming year?
And because Denver didn't do anything their record will be the same despite the fact that the Lakers acquired Davis, Clippers got Kawhi and PG, among'st other changes in the Western Conference. You don't think that has an effect on every team not only in the Western Conference, but in the NBA?
I live in Vegas and I love Sports Betting. Vegas isn't wrong often, but apparently, you have figured out something in 5 minutes that they haven't figured out in 50 years. Other teams don't affect win totals. Star players merging into one team don't affect an unchanged teams win totals? You going with that?
 

Kyoto

Well-Known Member
So because Utah didn't make moves last offseason (2017), they'll have a similar record they had that year to this upcoming year?
And because Denver didn't do anything their record will be the same despite the fact that the Lakers acquired Davis, Clippers got Kawhi and PG, among'st other changes in the Western Conference. You don't think that has an effect on every team not only in the Western Conference, but in the NBA?
I live in Vegas and I love Sports Betting. Vegas isn't wrong often, but apparently, you have figured out something in 5 minutes that they haven't figured out in 50 years. Other teams don't affect win totals. Star players merging into one team don't affect an unchanged teams win totals? You going with that?
Yes, Denver (barring injuries) should have a similar record to last year. I'm not saying other teams dont effect their win total, I'm not saying that at all. I'm just saying that they should end up with similar wins than last year like... +/- 5 wins

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Lakers_Slapper

Well-Known Member
+/- 5 wins
Yes, Denver (barring injuries) should have a similar record to last year. I'm not saying other teams dont effect their win total, I'm not saying that at all. I'm just saying that they should end up with similar wins than last year like... +/- 5 wins

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+/- 5 wins, is a 10 game cushion. That's not exactly "similar win total." A 10 game cushion is 12% of their games played. Are they having a similar record or not? I'm still lost on your 2017 Jazz win-upcoming win total comparison, can you elaborate?
 

Kyoto

Well-Known Member
+/- 5 wins


+/- 5 wins, is a 10 game cushion. That's not exactly "similar win total." A 10 game cushion is 12% of their games played. Are they having a similar record or not? I'm still lost on your 2017 Jazz win-upcoming win total comparison, can you elaborate?
Dude, chill. Don't act like I called your mom a bad word or something.

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Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
I do think we will be slightly worse on defense. Favs is good at the rim and the rebounding is a big part of defense. I expect us to have a point differential increase but more importantly I expect us to win more close games.

Conley being able to create for himself and others and being a good shooter and being a low turnover guy will be such an improvement over Rubio and I think that is magnified towards the end of close games.
 

infection

Well-Known Member
Staff member
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
Yea, we're basically the same team. Those stats are the only ones that differentiate Wins and Losses. Defense, and team chemisty won't effect that at all. And it's not like the ENTIRE Western Conference changed. Your right, best off-season of the Utah Jazz existence and we're the exact same team. It's not like the moves of the other 29 teams in the NBA have anything to do with the number. We can basically determine we're gonna suck by taking one stat of two guys. The rest is history!!!! Rubio and Conley are almost exactly the same!!! Crowder and Bojan, can't even tell their game apart. Almost identical! You know who else had similar games?? Wilt Chamberlain and David Wood. Damn near the same. If you remove the massive overall stats, their turnovers were so close! Must be the same player!

Let's quit calling common sense "common", because apparently its not.
Dude, you totally get it. How did you just take the words right out of my mouth? (or right off my finger keyboard?) I always thought David Wood was massively under rated. I had this skybox card as a kid:

 
One thing about this entire post that I think I noticed was the idea of adding 2.3 points per game is based only on the point differential of 3-point shooting. What about the overall point differential. What would be the difference if you added 2-point shooting and free throws?
 

NUMBERICA

Well-Known Member
One thing about this entire post that I think I noticed was the idea of adding 2.3 points per game is based only on the point differential of 3-point shooting. What about the overall point differential. What would be the difference if you added 2-point shooting and free throws?
And turnovers.
 

freakazoid

Well-Known Member
Last year Conley was the #1 option and really some nights the only option for the Grizzlies and Bogdanovic was the #1 option for the Pacers, they're now going to be the second and third options for the Jazz. They should get better looks this season because the defenses won't be able to focus on them as much.
Conely is going to have a bigger role most of the time than just being a 2nd option. I'd expect our offense to run similarly to Rubio's first season in Utah. Mitchell will take over in 4th quarters, but Conely is going to be setting the pace for the offense at least through the first half. Last year our offense struggled more because Mitchell was asked to do too much in the first half and was worn out down the stretch.
 

//r00t 4 Jazz

Well-Known Member
And turnovers.
Yeah that's another point that should hopefully help both the defensive and offensive numbers, as much as we all like Ricky's heart he had some bad TO's and overall just a bit too many whereas so far in Conley's career he's been much more secure with the ball.
 

framer

Well-Known Member
Lets just hope we are more improved offensively than we are degraded on the defensive end.
We will have to see to be certain, but replacing Rubio, Crowder, and Favors with Conley, Bojan/Royce, and Davis seems like an awful lot like a wash. I never subscribed to the supposed defensive power of Rubio.
 

framer

Well-Known Member
Also consider that Rubio's EFG% went from 42% to 47% on a lot more shots under the Jazz than with Minny. Fairly certain they were leaving Rubio open in Minny too. He just got a lot better shots with the Jazz, even with their semi-gimped offense. Give those shots to Conley, who starts with a 51% efg as the focus of the other team's defense in Memphis.
 

infection

Well-Known Member
Staff member
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
We will have to see to be certain, but replacing Rubio, Crowder, and Favors with Conley, Bojan/Royce, and Davis seems like an awful lot like a wash. I never subscribed to the supposed defensive power of Rubio.
My thoughts. I don’t think we’re different defensively.
 

idestroyedthetoilet

Well-Known Member
No **** Sherlock. And that’s not how Vegas always wins. But thanks. Qm
I know what they’re doing and why. My point is, to this point, most ppl, maybe even the far majority, is betting the over. Setting it now at 54.5 does not necessarily mean ppl will bet the under. Tbh not an overly scientific thing. More just whenever one thing is bet, the other thing usually comes in. It’s like this way in the nfl. My buddy runs a pool every year. Whenever one team is bet by 80+% of the participants, the other team covers like 80% of the time. Not saying I’m right btw. This is just what my lifelong addiction tells me.
You think Vegas gambles too? How precious.
 

Wes Mantooth

Well-Known Member
I love how some novices seem completely unaware of the fact that Vegas does not always move the lines if the majority of bettors are taking action on one side.
 
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