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Rubio/Crowder threes vs. Conley/Bogdanovic threes

idiot said:
Each point in point differential translates to 2.7 expected wins over the season, according to the standard rule of thumb. So the 2.34 extra points theoretically translates to 6.3 additional wins. That would put us at 56-57 wins next year.

I'd caution, however, that all the comments arguing about how the point differential should really be higher than 2.34 (though not totally without merit) are too optimistic overall, I think. (LogGrad's 9-point differential would have us at 74 wins, for example.) We're expecting best-case scenarios and ignoring everything else. It seems we're setting ourselves up for a hard fall with this type of reasoning if it turns out that we don't have a 60-win season. I don't think that's realistic.
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That's perfect because I'm anticipating 56-57 wins exactly.
 
The thing I didn't account for earlier is that the Jazz were at 54 expected wins last season. Adding 6 to that would get to 60.

Again, I'd rather be cautious and pleasantly surprised if it turns out this way, rather than expect it and be disappointed if it doesn't. But to each their own.
 
Wes Mantooth said:
Because we’ve always played better as the dog. And also because Vegas always wins...so if everyone is betting the over...
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then they just keep raising the line. They are just trying to balance the over and under getting each at close to 50% is how they win.
 
idiot said:
Each point in point differential translates to 2.7 expected wins over the season, according to the standard rule of thumb. So the 2.34 extra points theoretically translates to 6.3 additional wins. That would put us at 56-57 wins next year.

I'd caution, however, that all the comments arguing about how the point differential should really be higher than 2.34 (though not totally without merit) are too optimistic overall, I think. (LogGrad's 9-point differential would have us at 74 wins, for example.) We're expecting best-case scenarios and ignoring everything else. It seems we're setting ourselves up for a hard fall with this type of reasoning if it turns out that we don't have a 60-win season. I don't think that's realistic.
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That was OFFENSIVE point differential. Defensive will have a say in the final outcome. Also, and I hate to say it, there will be injuries.
 
framer said:
then they just keep raising the line. They are just trying to balance the over and under getting each at close to 50% is how they win.
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I know what they’re doing and why. My point is, to this point, most ppl, maybe even the far majority, is betting the over. Setting it now at 54.5 does not necessarily mean ppl will bet the under. Tbh not an overly scientific thing. More just whenever one thing is bet, the other thing usually comes in. It’s like this way in the nfl. My buddy runs a pool every year. Whenever one team is bet by 80+% of the participants, the other team covers like 80% of the time. Not saying I’m right btw. This is just what my lifelong addiction tells me.
 
Wes Mantooth said:
I know what they’re doing and why. My point is, to this point, most ppl, maybe even the far majority, is betting the over. Setting it now at 54.5 does not necessarily mean ppl will bet the under. Tbh not an overly scientific thing. More just whenever one thing is bet, the other thing usually comes in. It’s like this way in the nfl. My buddy runs a pool every year. Whenever one team is bet by 80+% of the participants, the other team covers like 80% of the time. Not saying I’m right btw. This is just what my lifelong addiction tells me.
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With the line set at 54.5, you would be betting on an injury to Gobert or one of the other starters on the under. Not much room for error with a margin like that. Chances are, there WILL be an injury. Championship teams generally get the lucky break of avoiding them. on paper the jazz are definitely 4.5 games better than last year.
 
framer said:
With the line set at 54.5, you would be betting on an injury to Gobert or one of the other starters on the under. Not much room for error with a margin like that. Chances are, there WILL be an injury. Championship teams generally get the lucky break of avoiding them. on paper the jazz are definitely 4.5 games better than last year.
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It seems the majority of other teams in the West are better as well.
 
I think the Jazz win 56 games and get the second-seed. I truly don’t see them falling below the third seed (barring catastrophically bad luck with injuries).
 
LogGrad98 said:
It's a bigger effect than just the raw points. It would have dramatically changed defenses played against us. It would have opened up more opportunities for other players. I bet it would be at least 3x that in real point differential. At 9 pts it will really change the outcome of many games. Hard to quantify really but I believe it would have had a pretty strong impact.
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It also means more close, winnable games without having to foul and stop the clock. Alot of the 7-10 point losses @TheStormofWar didnt include in his good list were probably much closer without all the free throws. That alone will add at least 2-3 wins, exciting wins, if not more.
 
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