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Salary cap expectations

Darkwing Duck

Well-Known Member
Stein twittering a $58.5M cap. https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/341375590215073793

Jazz have $19,501,000 in committed salaries next year.

Marvin Williams is very, very likely to not exercise his early termination option, so that adds 7.5 M making the total, for simplicity sake, 27 million.

Jazz have about 1.65 million in ungauranteed salary to McNeal and Murphy, with 75K committed if Murphy isn't released by August 1, and 200K committed if not waived by November 1, so those salaries are negligible going into free agency.

Jazz have guaranteed money currently invested in two first round draft picks. The 14 is $1,519,400 and the 21 is $1,089,100. However, most teams sign draft picks to the maximum contract off the scale, which is 120%, so they'll likely have 3.13M dollars invested in those two picks.

So let's just round up and say that the Jazz have 31 million dollars committed next year. That leaves 27.5 million left to spend. Floor would be 52.65 million. Jazz HAVE to spend about 22 million.

Jazz have tons of cap holds, expected for a team that has been over the salary cap for years and have lots of free agents. Cap holds prevent teams from signing other team's free agents after their own players' contracts expire. This is to prevent, say, Miami from letting their big three expire, sign Kyrie Irving and Greg Monore to max contracts and then sign their players via Bird rights. The cap holds for the Jazz add up to well over 70 million dollars, thus the Jazz are restricted from using their cap space outright and are left with only the exceptions allowed for teams over the salary cap, such as minimum salaries and things like mid level exceptions and low level exceptions. The Jazz can, and I don't see why they wouldn't, renounce ALL their cap holds. I believe this means they renounce Bird rights, so they wouldn't be able to sign any free agent to a 5 year deal. Whether the Jazz renounce their free agents and especially Al Jefferson will gauge how much interest they have in resigning Al. If and when the Jazz renounce their free agent cap holds (which still includes Greg Ostertag), the Jazz will then be free to spend that 27.5 million on free agents. Otherwise they could only spend around 7 million on other teams' free agents.

With $58.5M being the cap, the maximum salary for a 0-6 year player is $14.625 million, $17.55 M for a 7-9 year player, and $20.475 M for a 10+ year player. Jazz can afford only one full max contract. Unlikely that it would be used, though, as I doubt Howard and Paul come to Utah, and it would be foolish to use it on Smith or Jefferson.

Marion makes 9.3 next year, so I'd love to take on that salary for a draft pick. Would still be able to afford a max contract for a 9 year player.

It'll be interesting to see what the Jazz will pay Favors and Hayward in '14, as that will affect what the Jazz are planning this offseason, since if they spend a lot on those two, max free agents will be harder to get with more money tied into those two, and the '14 offseason has a much stronger free agent class. Jazz probably don't anticipate getting those max free agents, though, but they'll likely still be involved and under the cap, able to take on a liability for a greater asset.

Summary for the reading impaired/don't like reading crowd: Jazz should have about 27 million dollars to spend this year, enough for one max and one hefty contract if, and only if, they renounce the rights to Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, et al.
 
The Jazz don't have to spend another red cent. What they have to do is get to 13 or 14 players (I don't remember which one). If they only sign vet minimums, they are fine.
 
With $58.5M being the cap, the maximum salary for a 0-6 year player is $14.625 million, $17.55 M for a 7-9 year player, and $20.475 M for a 10+ year player.
One more nitpick (I'll try to be a bit less of a dick, as you've put some effort into your post): Max salaries are based on 42.14% of BRI, the cap is based on 44.74% of BRI. Those max salaries should all be multiplied by 42.14/44.74.
 
One more nitpick (I'll try to be a bit less of a dick, as you've put some effort into your post): Max salaries are based on 42.14% of BRI, the cap is based on 44.74% of BRI. Those max salaries should all be multiplied by 42.14/44.74.

Oh hey, there's a footnote there. So looking at the footnote, a max salary in 2012-13 was Cap*.25 or.3 or.35*42.14/44.74*1.058?

So the actual maxes are about 94.2% of what I posted.
 
All teams will pay 90% of the cap whether their total salaries committed for a season reach that threshold or not. The Jazz should use this cap space for something, and I think it should be to absorb other teams' bloated junk and pick up assets in the process (A la Gugliotta/Hayward, many Presti moves, and other examples).
 
There is no way the Jazz aren't spending 22 million more dollars on players next year then they are currently obligated to.

I know nothing about the NBA CBA, and next to nothing about economics in general, but I think if you're under the salary floor, then the team simply divvies up the difference between the floor, and what your players contracts are, and spreads them across the team??? It's something like that. So teams always pay the floor, but it doesn't necessarily need to be filled with discrete contracts. I'm sure someone like GVC or VSlice could give you the specifics.
 
I know nothing about the NBA CBA, and next to nothing about economics in general, but I think if you're under the salary floor, then the team simply divvies up the difference between the floor, and what your players contracts are, and spreads them across the team??? It's something like that. So teams always pay the floor, but it doesn't necessarily need to be filled with discrete contracts. I'm sure someone like GVC or VSlice could give you the specifics.
Nah, you pretty much got it.

In other words, all teams will pay 90% of the cap whether their total salaries committed for a season reach that threshold or not. No reason not to use that cap space for SOMETHING while you have it, though.
 
All teams will pay 90% of the cap whether their total salaries committed for a season reach that threshold or not. The Jazz should use this cap space for something, and I think it should be to absorb other teams' bloated junk and pick up assets in the process (A la Gugliotta/Hayward, many Presti moves, and other examples).


Agreed. I am hopeful that they will do this.
 
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...

No, they don't.
GVC has become the new kenwood. I think the Jazz will be lightly involved in the market. They won't renounce their holds unless/until a deal comes along. They'll explore some trade options, most of which would have them taking on a player without giving salary back. But nothing substantial will happen until the trade deadline when non-playoff teams will be desperate to cut costs. I really don't see AL or Paul coming back. Too expensive for too little impact.
 
I'm jealous of how much you guys understand this stuff.. wish I could contribute. I love this type of thing but just haven't made myself a student.

Mass props.
 
GVC has become the new kenwood. I think the Jazz will be lightly involved in the market. They won't renounce their holds unless/until a deal comes along. They'll explore some trade options, most of which would have them taking on a player without giving salary back. But nothing substantial will happen until the trade deadline when non-playoff teams will be desperate to cut costs. I really don't see AL or Paul coming back. Too expensive for too little impact.

I wish I had your faith in the front office. I believe at least one of them will return, and I lay awake at night worrying they both will.... The voices in my head say I should see someone about getting help.
 
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