The good news is that Dallas may potentially take a step back if they lose Ellis and don't add a capable PG in FA. Even if they get DeAndre Jordan, I could see them regressing without an upper tier playmaker.
Portland could take a SIGNIFICANT step back if they lose Aldridge, especially considering they traded Batum and will not have Matthews for a significant amount of time (if they re-sign). Who knows who they get in FA though. You would think they would be able to add someone of note if they do lose LA since they will have a lot of money to spend.
Those are the only two teams I see falling out though, unless another team sustains a significant injury to a star player. A case could be made for New Orleans with the fragility for a number of their key players too.
OKC will be getting back into the playoffs, so that only leaves 1 possible spot for Utah to sneak in.
We are going to have to have an excellent start to the year. We really can't afford to fall to the back of the race early.