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Solving For Tanking, We're smart, let's figure it out

From 2032/later on (the first season you can't trade your 1st as of now), draw the league in two fifteen team sets. In alternating years you pick either 1-15 or 16-30. Inside of those groups, you won't have equal odds,but you improve them by having the better growth in winning percentage through previous three seasons, than other teams in your group. It should incentivize winning culture. The point is, you are where you are, bottom, middle or top, so you can always keep developing and getting better at your pace, and it will be rewarded. If there will be big number of injuries in your team, you can apply from the league a some sort of relief, but then also the league will have an entry to look at the injured players health to confirm it
 
Give one of the teams in the playin a guarantee for a top 3 lottery spot - if they don't get one of the top two then you draw again and again until a playin team gets a spot. So you are highly rewarded for barely getting into the playoffs and you are rewarded for being one of the bottom two but everything in between is a miserable spot.
 
Give one of the teams in the playin a guarantee for a top 3 lottery spot - if they don't get one of the top two then you draw again and again until a playin team gets a spot. So you are highly rewarded for barely getting into the playoffs and you are rewarded for being one of the bottom two but everything in between is a miserable spot.
This might be the worst proposal I have ever heard.
 
For anyone who cares to give an assessment about this idea for rejiggering the lotto odds to try to solve tanking, I welcome your thoughts. (And yes I know there are ideas that do away with the lotto altogether that could well be more attractive -- I'm just trying to think what's possible IF the NBA wants to solve tanking while keeping a lotto).

The principles I've tried to follow:
  • Make the race to the bottom unattractive (with the odds for a top-5 pick going down for the worst 10 teams, rather than up) while still, on average, helping worse teams with the draft more than better teams
  • Reward winning more than the current system
  • Get rid of the idea that "the middle is the worst place to be," while simultaneously maybe giving a little more value to the play-in race

The table should be read like you'd read the Tankathon Lottery odds page, with all of the numbers in the Picks 1-30 and Top-5 pick columns being the odds (in percent). (Thanks to the Universal Draft Lottery Simulator website for making the math that is way to hard for me possible to see worked out).

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Put 1 % of each player's salary into escrow for each game they're behind the last play-in team in their conference. Exceptions for traded players etc. The players have the opportunity to re-coup the money in the following seasons by making the play-offs.

The Player's Association would block any idea like that, obviously. But that would stop tanking in its tracks, because no player would agree to sitting out or playing reduced minutes.
 
  1. The Wheel lets all teams know the exact timeline of their draft picks for the next 30 years
  2. The Wheel lets you trade picks knowing the exact value of the pick (of course you dont know the exact strength of a given draft X years out, but I think it makes trades much more standardized). You arent trading for a pick 5 years now hoping the team will be bad. You know what the value is.
  3. You can finish 8th in the West, get knocked out in the first round, and not be depressed because your team is drafting at some point in the lottery soon.
  4. Every franchise will get the 1st overall pick in 30 years. The Jazz have never had the first pick, so that would actually be an improvement.
    A. And you wont get BS luck franchises who somehow get three 1st overall picks in 10 years
  5. Teams will never tank again. The NBA regular season would be amazing as all teams would be trying their hardest to win. Getting into the play in will actually be exciting and not depressing.

It just makes too much funking sense and I have no idea why the NBA doesnt do it.
 
  1. The Wheel lets all teams know the exact timeline of their draft picks for the next 30 years
  2. The Wheel lets you trade picks knowing the exact value of the pick (of course you dont know the exact strength of a given draft X years out, but I think it makes trades much more standardized). You arent trading for a pick 5 years now hoping the team will be bad. You know what the value is.
  3. You can finish 8th in the West, get knocked out in the first round, and not be depressed because your team is drafting at some point in the lottery soon.
  4. Every franchise will get the 1st overall pick in 30 years. The Jazz have never had the first pick, so that would actually be an improvement.
    A. And you wont get BS luck franchises who somehow get three 1st overall picks in 10 years
  5. Teams will never tank again. The NBA regular season would be amazing as all teams would be trying their hardest to win. Getting into the play in will actually be exciting and not depressing.

It just makes too much funking sense and I have no idea why the NBA doesnt do it.

I do like the Wheel more than what we have today, but it would suck pretty bad to have the first pick in a bad draft and then have the Celtics or OKC get the first pick this year and land Cooper Flagg. I think the Wheel would be a little clunky to get started, but once implemented could work.

I think any solution is incomplete without addressing alternative solutions to team building. If my team is really bad, but I don't have a high draft pick for 10 years, that is going to be depressing, unless there is another way to build a team. I think you have to include a hard cap and get rid of max contracts at the very least.
 
I do like the Wheel more than what we have today, but it would suck pretty bad to have the first pick in a bad draft and then have the Celtics or OKC get the first pick this year and land Cooper Flagg. I think the Wheel would be a little clunky to get started, but once implemented could work.

I think any solution is incomplete without addressing alternative solutions to team building. If my team is really bad, but I don't have a high draft pick for 10 years, that is going to be depressing, unless there is another way to build a team. I think you have to include a hard cap and get rid of max contracts at the very least.
Sure, but you will get the 2nd/3rd/4th/5th pick at some point too. You can do the wheel where you have a top 15 pick every other year.
 
And look at OKC. They are going to have a billion lottery picks because they got lucky on futures bets. Is that really better than The Wheel were we KNOW what the picks will be for 30 years?
 
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