Solving For Tanking, We're smart, let's figure it out

[homeytennis]

Why not have an expansion draft of players on playoff teams to non playoff teams after each season. Allow the playoff teams to freeze eight players and the non playoff teams can draft from the remains. The purpose is to try and gain greater parity throughout the league from top to bottom. Keep the salary caps and luxury tax.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

In general none of the BIG changes will ever get traction. The simple easy ones that could:

- positioning is based on a weighted average of the last 2,3,4 seasons... still makes long term tanking a thing... it may not be as despicable.
- Limiting the amount of times you can jump into the top 4 to spread the luck out a bit.
- Smoothing odds further but that will just move the tanking goal posts a bit as play in teams will start to tank too.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

In general none of the BIG changes will ever get traction. The simple easy ones that could:

- positioning is based on a weighted average of the last 2,3,4 seasons... still makes long term tanking a thing... it may not be as despicable.
- Limiting the amount of times you can jump into the top 4 to spread the luck out a bit.
- Smoothing odds further but that will just move the tanking goal posts a bit as play in teams will start to tank too.

On top of this making lotto teams only get 50% of the revenue share they would be eligible for would provide some $$$ incentives to not be bottom 10. Getting another 8-10M on top of playoff gate would grease some wheels.

 

[fishonjazz]

Alright. I have a solution I was waiting for the pod to release but too much other stuff.

A lot of the odds stuff simply moves the target. You have to disconnect the teams own record from the draft positioning directly. I had this thought about Brooklyn. They have Johnson and are having this nice surprise start and their pick is roughly where the suns pick is. What if they didn't do the deal to get their own picks back and just said those guys can give us their picks... so we will just ball.

So here is my solution... you have a ****** team draft essentially at the beginning of the year. If you are the worst team in the league you get the first pick which other team you think will be the worst and you get their draft/lotto odds positioning. The order would follow whatever your record was. Lots of surprises happen each year and if teams aren't actively trying to lose it will be harder to predict who is bad and good. While you do get a slight benefit for being bad this year... the reward is like 2 years away since you get the first pick at the beginning of the season. It would also create some enmity potentially (players may not care) but one team is saying... "we bet you suck this year" so its not nice... we want some added competitiveness right? Its weird I know but it removes the conflict of interest teams have in losing.

On top of that I make rules that you can only draft #1 once every 4 years. You can only move into the top 4 2 out of 4 years. So like Houston moving up 4 straight years wouldnt happen... its spreads some of the luck around. I might say maybe 1 out of 3 years.

So you root for the demise of other teams... how many extra Minnesota games have you watched this year? Now fans have a rooting interest in at least two franchises. So you've created enough variances and uncontrollable factors that they will just "play it straight" for the most part hopefully.

I think with any of these solutions the owners will push back hard. These guys feel like they have more control/power and wouldn't relinquish that power easily.

I love it. I love rooting against other teams whose pick we own. This would make that even more fun.

 

[fishonjazz]

That's definitely an idea that I've never heard before and hadn't though of myself. Great Work!

I assume a team couldn't pick themselves which would defeat the whole purpose. Teams would also try hard to prove the team that picked them wrong, which would be funny.

It would be awesome.
Of a thread full of good ideas, it's my favorite cause it's the most fun

 

[fishonjazz]

Correct. So Wiz have to pick someone else. Maybe they pick Brooklyn and damn... now they are in the play in. Or a team that has an injury now doesn't hold the guy out for lotto positioning cuz that might be going to a long term competitor.

As @NUMBERICA mentioned... some teams would still be fine getting better positioning in the ****** team draft. But the benefit is going to be minimal and far removed and owners might be hesitant to hurt the business just for that.

I also think there would be a slight ratings and social media boost from hate watching other teams. I always check in on the Wolves (not the Cavs as much) but I am a sicko so maybe most fans wouldn's.

All of this. The more you think about this plan the better it gets.

 

[fishonjazz]

Having a rooting interest makes watching and following a sport much more enjoyable.

Maybe the only problem I can think of right now is that when your team plays against the team who's draft position it holds, then teams might try and pull off some dirty stuff.

So like the jazz have the wizards pick and the jazz play the wizards. Jazz want to win the game and the wizards also want to win the game. What is the dirty stuff?

 

[Coach Ellis]

This conversation comes up from time to time, and I saw one suggestion once that I really liked. (Can’t remember where it was, or who said it - but it stuck out as interesting to me.)

Basically, the concept was that each team would bet against another team’s record for the following season. The worst team (record wise) would get to choose any team it wanted to vote on based on how bad their record would be the next year - and on down the line until team 29 picks. The winning team is left with whoever hasn’t been picked at that point.

At the end of the season, the teams are split into 4 different tiers. The bottom 10 teams, the 4 teams that make the play-in, but don’t advance. The 12 teams that make the playoffs, but don’t advance to conference finals games and the 4 teams that advance to the semifinal series.

The bottom 14 teams are still lottery, but the play-in teams all have flat odds to move up. The bottom 10 teams are slotted based on where the team they bet on finishes, and assume the lottery odds based on that. Then the 4 play-in losers. Then the playoff teams that failed to reach the finals are slotted based on the records of the teams they bet on, and finally the teams that advance to the finals fill the last 4 spots.

It’s clearly not a perfect solution, but it does create some interesting incentives based on strategy and things outside of your control. It also gives every a fan base a built in rival to root against for 82 games - and it changes the following season based on who they end up with.

 

[bigmike]

Other than continuing to flatten the odds (which IMO they should) I don't think there's anything the league can do to alter the dynamics of just how important it is to draft high and give yourself the chance to draft true "superstars" vs. the "just a guy" types that fall into the mid-late lotto by just looking at the lottery / draft structure.

I think competitive balance and competitive integrity (tanking) need to be addressed at both the draft and CBA level. If you want better competitive balance and to disincentivize tanking, I'd love to see the following:

1) A firm salary cap (no more of this crap where teams are $100m+ over)
2) Get rid of the max contract (you want Jokic? Fine - pay him $80m/year, or whatever he can command on the open market, and build a roster with what's left over)
3) Flatten (to an extreme level) the lottery odds and run it all the way through picks #1 - #14. Effectively provide no (or de minimis) upside for finishing with the worst record in the league vs. the 14th worst record

I don't believe the league actually wants "parity" but I do not know how you address tanking (and specifically, the importance of drafting high as the only avenue for a team like the Jazz to acquire a true franchise superstar) without also removing some of the other crap that wildly skews the dynamics of how teams construct rosters. #1 and #2 above would be an interesting start.

 

[slc]

Do a reverse lottery
The 14 teams that don't make playoffs the team with best record gets the #1 pick and so on
That forces every team to try and win every game

 

[NUMBERICA]

Do a reverse lottery
The 14 teams that don't make playoffs the team with best record gets the #1 pick and so on
That forces every team to try and win every game

It forces teams to tank themselves out of the playoffs and teams that are legitimately terrible to have no chance at getting better. It makes everything so much worse but thanks for the contribution.

 

[slc]

It forces teams to tank themselves out of the playoffs and teams that are legitimately terrible to have no chance at getting better. It makes everything so much worse but thanks for the contribution.

Have some sort of play in for the #1 pick
If you are the #13 and #14 lottery teams you must play the two worst teams
Whoever wins gets the #1 pick
Something like that