Spidy on Royce

[idiot]

he's got all the tools to be a legit player in this league. Next step is consistency.

He's already legit, I'd say. The defense is superb.

I agree that added consistency would be good, but maybe even more so the next step ought to be increased usage. I'm not sure what he's capable of here, but his very good efficiency last year was built on one of the league's lowest usage rates (4th lowest among the 183 players who played 1500+ minutes). So he's entirely a specialist now (though very good at what he does).

 

[NUMBERICA]

If he's getting that starting spot then the Jazz should really try and lock him in for a decent rate. I feel ~$10 mil per would both be fair and team-friendly, maybe front-load it.

 

[Ron Mexico]

If Royce is our 4 then I’m just gonna come out and say that the power forward position is dead. Everyone is just playing with 3 wings now.

I don't think there is much of a size difference between him and Jae Crowder. Crowder probably had a little more bulk, but I think Royce is more athletic and better wingspan. They are both the same height.

 

[Ron Mexico]

Royce is an upgrade to Crowder in most ways at PF. He's a better defender and a better shooter. They both hustle a lot.

We'll see about rebounding. Crowder averaged 8.5 rebounds per 100 possessions last year to Royce's 8.2. My guess is Royce rebounds even better this year, especially from the PF spot.

 

[idiot]

If Royce is our 4 then I’m just gonna come out and say that the power forward position is dead. Everyone is just playing with 3 wings now.

Players who don’t fit as a “wing” in either game or size with at least a chance of starting at PF this year:

Millsap
Z. Collins
AD
Looney (unlikely, but possible given GS’s dearth of wings)
Aldridge
Griffin
Giannis
Bagley/Bjelica
Porzingis
Zion
Horford
Siakam (wing or PF size?); Ibaka might even get a few starts depending on wing production/health
Everyone on the Knicks
Possibly (though not likely) someone on the Wolves: Vonleh, Bell, for example
Markkanen
Love
J. Collins
JJJ
Saric

Plus plenty of other more “true” PFs will be used at the PF off the bench.

So I think reports of PF’s demise are a bit premature.

How many of the above do we want Royce guarding? I guess that’s a different question.

 

[idiot]

Royce is an upgrade to Crowder in most ways at PF. He's a better defender and a better shooter.

Hope you end up being right. But the big difference (that doesn't really touch on the issue of the position played) is that Jae was willing and able to put up shots while Royce is extremely reluctant. Maybe it won't matter much with Conley and Bogdanovic on the court, but Royce won't be guarded as much as Jae was on the perimeter until he proves with some volume that he'll burn a team that leaves him open.

 

[Jingled]

Hope you end up being right. But the big difference (that doesn't really touch on the issue of the position played) is that Jae was willing and able to put up shots while Royce is extremely reluctant. Maybe it won't matter much with Conley and Bogdanovic on the court, but Royce won't be guarded as much as Jae was on the perimeter until he proves with some volume that he'll burn a team that leaves him open.

If he's in the starting lineup then Mitchell, Conley and Bogdanovic will provide more than enough offense so it won't really matter that Royce is reluctant to shoot. I'm also not sure I agree that Royce won't be guarded on the perimeter as much as Jae was. Jae didn't take a lot of contested shots, a lot of teams purposely left him and Rubio open because they knew they weren't good shooters. Royce shoots a much better percentage from 3 than Crowder did so if teams don't won't to guard him then he can make them pay.

 

[Ron Mexico]

Hope you end up being right. But the big difference (that doesn't really touch on the issue of the position played) is that Jae was willing and able to put up shots while Royce is extremely reluctant. Maybe it won't matter much with Conley and Bogdanovic on the court, but Royce won't be guarded as much as Jae was on the perimeter until he proves with some volume that he'll burn a team that leaves him open.

Jae shot terrible though.

 

[fishonjazz]

Players who don’t fit as a “wing” in either game or size with at least a chance of starting at PF this year:

Millsap
Z. Collins
AD
Looney (unlikely, but possible given GS’s dearth of wings)
Aldridge
Griffin
Giannis
Bagley/Bjelica
Porzingis
Zion
Horford
Siakam (wing or PF size?); Ibaka might even get a few starts depending on wing production/health
Everyone on the Knicks
Possibly (though not likely) someone on the Wolves: Vonleh, Bell, for example
Markkanen
Love
J. Collins
JJJ
Saric

Plus plenty of other more “true” PFs will be used at the PF off the bench.

So I think reports of PF’s demise are a bit premature.

How many of the above do we want Royce guarding? I guess that’s a different question.

I want him guarding millsap, looney and saric and maybe love, zion, the knicks guys, and the wolves guys.

You make a good point


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[fishonjazz]

Hope you end up being right. But the big difference (that doesn't really touch on the issue of the position played) is that Jae was willing and able to put up shots while Royce is extremely reluctant. Maybe it won't matter much with Conley and Bogdanovic on the court, but Royce won't be guarded as much as Jae was on the perimeter until he proves with some volume that he'll burn a team that leaves him open.

Another good post but like jingled said, he wont need to jack up shots like crowder did (this was bad btw as his efficiency was horrible but i get that someone had to shoot. Thats not a problem anymore) and his decision making on offense is quick and smart. He might not be a ball user (usage) or a shot taker, but he is a ball mover and shot maker.


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[idiot]

If Royce plays 24 minutes, his rate from last year would have him at 1.0 3-pter made per game. I don't think teams are worried too much about him at that rate.

When I was looking at shot quality data, Royce's pattern really stood out. He very rarely took anything but wide open shots (closest defender 6+ feet). When he wasn't wide open (even with defender at 4-6 feet) his percentage made dropped off a cliff, much more than almost anyone else on the team. I appreciate where he's come in his career, but for him to be a real threat as a stretch 4, this ability to put up and hit not-totally-wide-open shots has to improve.

 

[Engorged On Unborn Gore]

for him to be a real threat as a stretch 4, this ability to put up and hit not-totally-wide-open shots has to improve.

Well, what would his percentage look like playing with Conley, Mitchell, Bogey, and Gobert?