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Start Mitchell at the Point.

Jazzta said:
I remember a game against the Spurs last season where Pop’s defensive gameplan was clearly to leave Rubio wide open during every possession. Go ask him how that worked out, I even remember him approaching Ricky at the end of the game to give him kudos, probably thinking “you rascal, where did all that come from?”
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And if the Spurs played them over and over he would stick to that strategy and it would work out more often than not.
 
LoPo said:
I actually figured it out -

When Rubio shoots 47% from the field or better this year, we are actually 5-7.
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In wins this year he shoots 40%. In losses he shoots 39%. It really isnt that big of a factor. Jazz won a lot last year in the second half because we had a really easy schedule combined with the fact that 1/2 the teams in the NBA give up in the second half and want to lose. So that makes it even easier. The same reason why we will have a good record in the second half this year and our players will look much better in easy games with more rest.
 
My eye test also tells me that the offense runs smoother as a whole with Ricky as our PG. That is subject to opinion though.
 
Jazzta said:
My eye test also tells me that the offense runs smoother as a whole with Ricky as our PG. That is subject to opinion though.
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I agree with that. My eye test tells me Mitchell is not quite ready to be a PG full time. Our offense does run better with Rubio running the PG according to stats, but you also have to factor in that a much worse player is coming in at SG to fill in for Mitchell. If we had a Mitchell level player at SG to fill in our team would be much much better. If we had a PG that could run the offense and shoot well we would also be better. I like Rubio, but I dont think he is a good fit for this team. We are a defense first team that does not have lots of shooters to put around him. Rubio is a poor defender that needs lots of shooters around him.

My eye test also tells me Rubio is a terrible defender. The stats have shown that as well that our offense is slightly better with Rubio at PG but our defense is much worse with him.
 
Ron Mexico said:
It is pretty crazy. Rubio definitely hurts our spacing on offense. The Jazz as a team attempt 30 of their 38 3s per game either open or wide open. We shoot our wide open ones okay (9th best in NBA) as a team but our open shots (closest defender 4-6 feet) at only 31%. Which is bottom 4 in the league.
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Please explain. Rubio hurts our spacing on offense, but the Jazz as a team attempt 30 of their 38 3s per game either open or wide open.

If Rubio hurts our spacing, how come the whole team keeps shooting wide open 3s?

Rubio started terribly, I'll be the first to admit, but like every year, he clearly improved and lately (1 month) he was shooting 37% from 3, which is quite decent. Donovan was struggling mightly from 3. Even Ingles wasn't looking confident for a stretch. But Rubio? He was shooting above league average.

The real problem IMO is Favors-Gobert. Gobert lives in the paint. If Favors is around the paint too, THAT's the spacing problem right there. If Favors moves to the perimeter, he's the one actually left alone. Favors shoots a 3 and makes… 0%?
 
RRJazz said:
Please explain. Rubio hurts our spacing on offense, but the Jazz as a team attempt 30 of their 38 3s per game either open or wide open.

If Rubio hurts our spacing, how come the whole team keeps shooting wide open 3s?

Rubio started terribly, I'll be the first to admit, but like every year, he clearly improved and lately (1 month) he was shooting 37% from 3, which is quite decent. Donovan was struggling mightly from 3. Even Ingles wasn't looking confident for a stretch. But Rubio? He was shooting above league average.

The real problem IMO is Favors-Gobert. Gobert lives in the paint. If Favors is around the paint too, THAT's the spacing problem right there. If Favors moves to the perimeter, he's the one actually left alone. Favors shoots a 3 and makes… 0%?
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Its not the threes that arent open its the inside. Because players dont guard Rubio on the perimeter. They sag off him and go under on all the screens set for him. I agree that both Favors/Gobert are also a spacing issue when you dont have a PG that can shoot. But Favors hardly plays with the starting unit for that reason. But Favors also gets guarded more tightly on the perimeter than Rubio statistically, which is pretty sad. If we had a 3 point shooting center than Rubio could work, but we dont. If you believe he will become a good 3 point shooter than I could see your point. I dont believe he ever will be. His shot is ugly and too inconsistent. He will get hot now and then but it will never be reliable.

Rubio does not improve every month. On average he is better in the second half 3 years in a row but he is still up and down. He is better when our schedule is easier against worse teams and more rest. Last year with 0 days rest his net rating was -7.6, 1 day rest +6.2, 2 days rest +7.7. His FG% followed the same path.
 
RRJazz said:
Rubio in December and January, 17 games:
FGM/FGA
9/13
5/10
5/13
11/23
5/13
2/5
3/14
5/10
0/8
10/15
5/11
5/11
1/10
6/17
6/13
6/13
4/5 in 5 minutes. Injured

30/33 FT% 90
88/205 FG% 43
24/65 3P% 37
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Compare that with October and November FGM/FGA:

0/4 - BOO
5/12 - Meh
1/8 - BOO
1/8- BOO
8/14 - NEAT!
2/9- BOO
2/6 - Meh
9/17- NEAT!
3/10- BOO
1/10- BOO
3/13- BOO
7/13- NEAT!
3/11- BOO
3/9- BOO
4/8- NEAT!
6/13- NEAT!
10/13- NEAT!
4/15- BOO
3/12- BOO
11/16- NEAT!
2/8- BOO
0/9- BOO
5/11- Meh

Plenty of games with 0 - 4 makes while shooting 8 - 13 shots in most games. Lots of BOOOOs.

Also, we are the 25th best team as far as first quarter scoring goes (26.4 pts avg - 6th worst team in the league) and we have had record low scoring games twice this season. In the last 3 games we have bumped that average to 29.3 EVEN WITH a 24 point game in one of them. That ties us for 13th best. We aren't starting games off with elite scoring and we are playing weaker competition at home and sure it's limited data but it's a trend I like.

Finally, POINT DIFFERENTIAL after the first quarter... we are averaging +1.2 in 2018/19. We have been a +4.0 in the last 3 games. Our 4th quarter has been +0.2 on the season and we are +5.7 in the last 3 games. Again, just a trend and against lessor competition, but let's watch it. Those are minutes that Rubio typically has been playing and that marks a stark contrast in our performance.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/average-1st-quarter-margin
https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/average-4th-quarter-margin
 
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