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franklin said:
Ducky, you have any experience catching falling knifes like this? I jumped in at $18.22, $.05 off the bottom. Over 41 million shares traded today, and there's only 90mm outstanding. Blackrock owns over 29mm of them, and it's 98% institutional investors. This is a short pile on if there ever was one and I'm expecting a huge and rapid squeeze. Holding shorts at this point is plain greedy and asking to get taken out behind the woodshed. I wouldn't be surprised to see Blackstone step back in -- they took it to market at $27 and had 53mm shares two quarters ago. At $18 they may see the opportunity to jump right back in, in a big way.

Anyway, I have no clue when to sell. It could go up 15% tomorrow, or 50% in 3 months. Advice please.
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Yeah, I tend to buy beat up stocks every once in awhile. I'd take the flip if you get some run tomorrow. I haven't seen too many that have taken a big earnings hit like that and then recouped all of that in a short time. But then again, I don't necessarily watch them for too long after I try to trade them. Especially in something that's actually tangible like theme parks. The ones that ones that seem to get upward bursts out of nowhere after taking hit are like the tech companies that nobody cares are making money or not. What I do usually is just wait for that first 7:30-8:00 crazy half hour of every trading day to be over, then throw in a stop loss and just see what happens for the day on those types. But it definitely complicates things if it's down 5 or 10% in that first hour, which does happen from time to time.

What I really like for short term flip buys rather than the negative falling knifes though are stocks that are still positive for the day on a news item but dropped a good amount from their open price. More than 10 % drop from the open + volume over a mill + news item means I'm usually buying at the end of the day. For example, ICPT had some drug data yesterday that was positive but it opened at 340 and then closed at $275, which was still up for 16 or 17% on the day. Buy in at the close yesterday, you've got 12% today. That works pretty well consistently.
 
franklin said:
Oh Ducky, where are ya?

I should troll Pearl with his dumb *** TBT short call too, but he's not likely going to read. I'll be here when he does to rub my long @ 4% call in his face. It's here somewhere.
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Though like any good Ultra short ETF ULL crapped out and had to reserve split a few times, no? At least once. They all share that same fate. What would ULL be today relative to the structure when it was $30?
 
Duck Rodgers said:
Yeah, I tend to buy beat up stocks every once in awhile. I'd take the flip if you get some run tomorrow. I haven't seen too many that have taken a big earnings hit like that and then recouped all of that in a short time. But then again, I don't necessarily watch them for too long after I try to trade them. Especially in something that's actually tangible like theme parks. The ones that ones that seem to get upward bursts out of nowhere after taking hit are like the tech companies that nobody cares are making money or not. What I do usually is just wait for that first 7:30-8:00 crazy half hour of every trading day to be over, then throw in a stop loss and just see what happens for the day on those types. But it definitely complicates things if it's down 5 or 10% in that first hour, which does happen from time to time.

What I really like for short term flip buys rather than the negative falling knifes though are stocks that are still positive for the day on a news item but dropped a good amount from their open price. More than 10 % drop from the open + volume over a mill + news item means I'm usually buying at the end of the day. For example, ICPT had some drug data yesterday that was positive but it opened at 340 and then closed at $275, which was still up for 16 or 17% on the day. Buy in at the close yesterday, you've got 12% today. That works pretty well consistently.
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Thanks, and looks like you called it right. This might take much longer to form a base than I initially thought. I don't have much experience with these situations, but I've seen a helluva lot of these news drive crashes lead to huge upside swings (BP is the best example of a no-brainer).


Duck Rodgers said:
Though like any good Ultra short ETF ULL crapped out and had to reserve split a few times, no? At least once. They all share that same fate. What would ULL be today relative to the structure when it was $30?
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I was referring to shorting treasuries, not the actual vehicle. We all know they go to zero.
 
It might finally be time to set up that t short, ducky.

This thing is going to over react and over analyze what the Fed will do and we just might see drastic predictions of negative short term deposit ratse from the wonks coming out of the woodworks to declare their 5 year victory. That'll be you're queue to place your bet.

The economy is strong and the Fed isn't straying from course, barring external impact (the Europes can suck my ***).
 
Where's ThePearl gone? I need advice on OAK. My last calc had them about $500mm under their 2.5 billion-ish book value when you add in the earned but not accounted for returns on invested funds (they're roughly 7 year duration bonds htm so price volatility shouldn't be an issue in the end). It's best of breed with an incredible track record, and still relatively small at $90 billion with plenty of room to grow and apparently some momentum.

I don't know the space and can only guess the low price is estimating future payouts that will likely shrink in the short to mid term???
 
So, looking to make some plays on brent oil ETF's. With the recent plunge, I think there is money to be made once the bottom has been hit.

Any thoughts one way or the other?
 
VINYLONE said:
So, looking to make some plays on brent oil ETF's. With the recent plunge, I think there is money to be made once the bottom has been hit.

Any thoughts one way or the other?
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Oil is going the way of the dinosaur (boo ya); solar energy, Dick. Solar.
 
VINYLONE said:
So, looking to make some plays on brent oil ETF's. With the recent plunge, I think there is money to be made once the bottom has been hit.

Any thoughts one way or the other?
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What lens are you operating out of? What do you think the reason oil is dropping is? Oversupply? Secret agreements intended to stick it to Russia/Iran/Venezuela? A world economy that is even worse than most people believe?
 
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