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The Jazz ought to trade for Zion Williamson

JimLes said:
Everything coming out of NOLA suggests that Zion doesn't wanna be there and the team don't want him anymore. He seems unlikely to be on the Pelicans come February, and almost certainly won't be there come October. The Jazz FO should make every effort to grab him from the Pelicans. This may be a once-in-a-decade opportunity for our franchise. Yes, there are risks, but the potential reward is huge. We have very little to lose here.

Normally, you'd be betting your house on a player like this ending up in NY or LA, but the apron stuff has really limited the amount of teams that can trade for a guy on a contract like Zion's. We've got the simple advantage here of actually being able to trade for him and being able to do it straight up, without involving a third team. Pelicans are also tanking hard and may well be getting rid of Ingram, as well. They are not looking to win for a good while, so they would be looking to get back picks, young talent on rookie contracts, or tank-beneficial vets. We've got all that to offer, especially picks.

Let's be honest here for a second. The Cavs will be good for years to come and I really don't see the Wolves falling off hard enough to get anywhere other than perhaps late lottery any time soon. We've got plenty of picks and swaps, but it's quite unlikely that those will yield any players better than the under-25s we currently have on the team. I have no problem trading 4-5 FRPs for a chance at a player who, if we can fix him, would be an instant MVP candidate. Remember that for all the soda and pornstars and injuries, this is a generational talent who has played like one in limited stretches when he was healthy and focused. Other teams that may be interested in trading for him either do not have the pick haul or are doing too well themselves for their own picks to be enticing. Detroit, for example, would be in the latter category. Their FRPs are not looking great the next half a decade.

Now, of course, this may well not pan out. Maybe Zion just doesn't care enough about basketball to be anything more than the greatest "What if" story since Len Bias. That's fine, there are multiple things mitigating that risk. First is that we have little to lose here. We're bad and we're perhaps trying to be worse. If Zion continues to be a moron, that's playing right into those plans. He's not going to cost us wins, he's not going to ruin the chemistry, he's not going to get a coach fired. He also cannot bolt if he does play well, as he's under contract until 2028. We've got at least a couple of years to figure things out and try to make it work.

Then there's the actual details of his contract. While he's under contract until 2028, the contract itself is not guaranteed. He can be cut from the team if he fails to play a certain number of games. In face, he's already missed enough games this season that the Pelicans could simply waive him right now if they wanted to, without taking a financial hit. This would obviously be the worst case scenario should he come to the Jazz. Last resort, if you will. More likely is that he sucks enough that we don't wanna keep him, but there's enough interest that we don't need to cut him. There are always organizations willing to take risks, and GMs looking for some long-shot move to save their own jobs. It's easy to forget because it seems like he's been in the league forever, but Zion is 24. If he has trade value now, he will still have trade value in year or two.

TL/DR: Swing for the fences. Trade for Zion. Very low risk even if the potential for success is low as well.
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I'm reminded of the song from Guys and Dolls, "Marry the Man Today, Change His Ways Tomorrow." Anyone with experience in relationships immediately recognizes the folly of such sentiments. At some point, you are who you are. Marrying a bum doesn't magically transform him into a gentleman. Zion is who is his: a chronically injured, undisciplined, and lazy money pit. His injury history is directly related to his lack of discipline and commitment to excellence. I'm frequently amazed/amused by the number of franchises that think that after someone has demonstrated again and again who he is, they'll be the ones to change him. 9 times out of 10, it's wishful thinking.
 
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JimLes said:
10%, then? Basically the odds we have of landing Flagg, at least the last time I looked at lottery odds. And yet tanking is lauded by so many here as a brilliant strategy.
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I think its worth trying at 10%, just has to be a reasonable price. Though Zion being an all-NBA level player for multiple future years is probably closer to 5% and Flagg more likely 35%ish.
 
JazzFever said:
I think its worth trying at 10%, just has to be a reasonable price. Though Zion being an all-NBA level player for multiple future years is probably closer to 5% and Flagg more likely 35%ish.
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Kind of funny, but with your estimate the probability of Jazz landing Flagg (with maximum tanking) AND him becoming all-NBA level is 0.14*0.35 = 4.9%
 
orange said:
Kind of funny, but with your estimate the probability of Jazz landing Flagg (with maximum tanking) AND him becoming all-NBA level is 0.14*0.35 = 4.9%
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Yeah, but according to tank math, the probability of getting an all-pro player without tanking is approximately 0%, so tanking is still the only path.

(Exaggerations and cynicism toward trust in tanking aside, I think the odds for Flagg to become all-NBA in his career are pretty high. I'd go at least 50%, maybe somewhat more.)
 
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