The Julius Randle for Mike Conley article.

[NUMBERICA]

I’m still bullish on Portis. Probably irrationally so. Even then, his salary was/his team option is outrageously high. If he hits the market I’d want at least a dialogue with him and his camp.

 

[infection]

Not true. It’s a big if, but if they can dump his contract this offseason, they will have about $25 million in cap space (saying nothing of Clarkson and either his team-signing or his cap hold or whatever longer term salary that would probably come in the trade).

If the Jazz are going to make a play with cap space this is quite literally their last chance and only avenue to do so until they blow it up.

Here's why it would never work:

1. DL would not offer a contract based on potential cap space. Only real cap space.
2. DL would never trade Conley to get cap space to make an offer on someone because they don't have an accepted offer in-hand.
3. DL won't have an accepted offer in-hand because of #1.

The closest we got was with knowing we could waive Favors' non-guaranteed. But for him to make an offer contingent on moving someone (which is what lots and lots of teams have done to land the guy they want), that's just too uncharted of territory for DL and probably makes him so anxious that he's paralyzed with indecision.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Here's why it would never work:

1. DL would not offer a contract based on potential cap space. Only real cap space.
2. DL would never trade Conley to get cap space to make an offer on someone because they don't have an accepted offer in-hand.
3. DL won't have an accepted offer in-hand because of #1.

The closest we got was with knowing we could waive Favors' non-guaranteed. But for him to make an offer contingent on moving someone (which is what lots and lots of teams have done to land the guy they want), that's just too uncharted of territory for DL and probably makes him so anxious that he's paralyzed with indecision.

Except that the tampering rules border on unenforceable and there is NO WAY IN HELL the flurry of activity on the opening gun of free agency simply happened in real time. Discussions were happening for weeks among virtually every franchise and several dozens of players.

In either case, Conley has lost a step, is a defensive liability, and does not fit well here because his strengths are duplicitous so I’m not sure what they’re clinging onto.

If he’ll agree to play for a 6MOY award and a re-worked deal where he sheds some salary this year for substantial security on the backend then I would probably be cool with that. At least if it is part of a process that opens up sufficient cap space to add a real piece. But that’s a lot of moving parts and caveats, so:

TLDR; who gives a **** about Conley staying. Find the rip cord and pull that ****.

 

[LoPo]

-the willingness of the Jazz to accept the L on the optics regarding the Conley deal (I am not hopeful they are willing and this FO has a track record of doubling down on failed endeavors).

Normally, I would agree. However, the Jazz are in a very rare environment because of COVID. The NBA is going to take a massive financial hit. The Jazz have to act like a business and survive. If NY is willing to save us $15+ million, it has to be considered.

Do we take Randle? Do we find a 3rd team? Can we get Ntilikina? Do we have to send #23?

These are all fair questions but the truth is this. We have to do whatever is necessary to stay strong financially.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Normally, I would agree. However, the Jazz are in a very rare environment because of COVID. The NBA is going to take a massive financial hit. The Jazz have to act like a business and survive. If NY is willing to save us $15+ million, it has to be considered.

Do we take Randle? Do we find a 3rd team? Can we get Ntilikina? Do we have to send #23?

These are all fair questions but the truth is this. We have to do whatever is necessary to stay strong financially.

Randle is a non-starter topic IMO. Too many question marks, too much long term salary.

But yeah, if they can find a team to take him then you do it in the blink of an eye.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Here's why it would never work:

1. DL would not offer a contract based on potential cap space. Only real cap space.
2. DL would never trade Conley to get cap space to make an offer on someone because they don't have an accepted offer in-hand.
3. DL won't have an accepted offer in-hand because of #1.

The closest we got was with knowing we could waive Favors' non-guaranteed. But for him to make an offer contingent on moving someone (which is what lots and lots of teams have done to land the guy they want), that's just too uncharted of territory for DL and probably makes him so anxious that he's paralyzed with indecision.

You forgot #4... DL is a staunch believer in sunk costs and would never make a trade where he moved a guy after giving up so much to bring him in.

Only way we move Conley is if a big overpay offer comes across DL's desk and he had a little extra caffeine that morning and says "what the hell? lets do it!"

 

[LoPo]

Randle is a non-starter topic IMO. Too many question marks, too much long term salary.

But yeah, if they can find a team to take him then you do it in the blink of an eye.

Randle makes $18.9 and Conley $34.5 this year. That $15.6 is a ton of money. In 21-22, Randle is only guaranteed $4 million. I would hate to eat $4 million, but saving 4x that the year before is pretty substantial.

But yes ideally, NY wants Conley and Charlotte wants Randle.

 

[latin jazz]

Not true. It’s a big if, but if they can dump his contract this offseason, they will have about $25 million in cap space (saying nothing of Clarkson and either his team-signing or his cap hold or whatever longer term salary that would probably come in the trade). Rudy and Donovan’s extensions/re-ups wouldn’t kick in until next year.

If the Jazz are going to make a play with cap space this is quite literally their last chance and only avenue to do so until they blow it up.

I didn't say it was impossible. See my follow up to Lopo. It requires finding a team under the cap willing to absorb a massive contract without sending a contract back. It's unlikely to happen. And if it does, it requires to attach assets/picks. I don't see the FO unloading Conley and losing assets in the process in order to be players in a weak free agent class. That's why I think that ship has sailed and thus, we will probably look to make lateral moves, upgrading the bench via draft, trades and MLE.

 

[latin jazz]

I’m still bullish on Portis. Probably irrationally so.

The crazy eyes maybe? Ha

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

New York has a team option and if they don’t want to pay Portis then they can just not pick up the option. New York is also under the cap, so they can take in as much salary (up to hitting the soft cap) as they’d like.

In other words, Portis is not at all important in making a deal work.

Whether New York ends up being a viable dumping spot for Conley depends on a lot of variables, mostly:
-where that ranks on New York’s wishlist (kinda sketchy IMO)
-the willingness of the Jazz to accept the L on the optics regarding the Conley deal (I am not hopeful they are willing and this FO has a track record of doubling down on failed endeavors).
-Salary that the Knicks are surely trying to jettison for next year’s free agency bonanza. Julius Randle’s name has come up for a reason but I think that would be a bad idea unless they can find a 3rd team to take him.

I think Conley would be fairly high on their list if they miss on Fred Van Vleet or some other young FA. Chris Paul is the other guy but that blows up a ton of space for the following year. Not something they really need to worry about if they continue to be a dumpster fire.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't see Portis as a huge upgrade. Better rebounder than Niang... might be a worse defender overall. Is he a small ball five? Do you just hope to outscore your opponent?

 

[NUMBERICA]

I don't see Portis as a huge upgrade. Better rebounder than Niang... might be a worse defender overall. Is he a small ball five? Do you just hope to outscore your opponent?

He is a small-ball 5 that can shoot. Could open up some stuff offensively. He is not a hopeless shooter so you might be able to play him alongside Rudy for spurts. Good rebounder. I think in the right environment the crazy in him could make him a “good” 90’s defender (not good but scary), which is more than can be said about anyone else on this Disney-*** team.