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The Lauri Thread

The Warriors offered multiple first round picks and multiple pick swaps along with Moses Moody for Lauri Markkanen. We wanted all the picks and all the swaps plus Brandin Podziemski.

That to me seems like 3 picks and 2 swaps. Or 2 picks and 3 swaps type of offer.

I’m not sure how 4 picks and 4 swaps just based off of pure volume isn’t better. Are we sure Detroit is going to be good in 2030/2031/2032? I’m not. Controlling a team’s draft for 8 years straight is bonkers. Something bad is bound to happen eventually.

It's actually 7 years of control either way. Lowe misspoke because you can't actually trade 8 years into the future. So you'd have 4 picks and 3 swaps at maximum from DET. This was "all the picks" from the Warriors.

Lemme play!

Podz and Moody = 2.5 unprotected picks
3 super swaps (25/27/29) = 2 unprotected picks
3 basically unprotected (26/28/30) = 2.75 unprotected picks
1 normal swap way out in 2031 = 0.75 unprotected pick (due to how far out it is and upside value)

I count at least 8 picks worth of value there.
 
Why is Lowe so fixated on shipping Lauri off to Detroit?
Because that’s the industry: guys like him build careers by issuing grand, authoritative proclamations about what teams should do, handing down verdicts from the studio desk like NBA Solomon, without ever having to live with a single consequence of being wrong. It’s all abstract chess moves to them. Draft picks, assets, timelines… none of it has a human cost when you're not the one sitting in the arena watching your team trade away its top players in exchange for “flexibility” and “future upside.”
For fans, however, those decisions matter. Losing high-end talent isn’t a parlor game; it’s years of watching a team struggle because someone thought a theoretical return sounded clever on a podcast. Whether the Jazz get better or whether the fan experience improves is, frankly, background noise for Lowe. It’s not part of the entertainment product he’s selling.
It’s the sports-media equivalent of romantic advice: incredibly easy to dispense, infinitely harder to follow, and if it blows up in your face and condemns fans to yet more years of losing basketball? Well, that’s your problem, not theirs.

It's not that deep.
 
i'm convinced - as of three minutes ago - the jazz shouldn't trade lauri* (i reserve the right to change my mind three minutes or more from now). it's kinda crazy to trade a 28 year old star, in the hopes you can draft somebody as good as him.
I agree but we have done it before - which still makes no sense to me.
 
If the Jazz get another non-star prospect this draft and then decide to try to win, this is going to be the most pointless 4 year tank of all time, lol.

2 massive busts and 2 non-stars just to be in the same place before all the tanking except having wasted four years of Lauri's career.

Another point is that we tried many times before to do the "quick pivot to winning!" only to have it blow up because no one wanted to sign.
 
Great write up here.


"People talk about playmaking with basketball all the time. Luka Dončić needs the rock so he can distribute it to others. But this is the quieter version of playmaking. Forget about the made shot. This quality of shot does not occur without Markkanen’s solo, yet team-first brilliance."

Edit: This article also clarifies why I think Markkanen is being a paradigm shifting big
 
Lauri's potential trade market is very odd right now. The teams he fits with

1. Miami: Requires Terry Rozier's contract being traded which may or may not be allowed by the CBA
2. Golden State: Requires trading Draymond and Kuminga and leaves them with a massive hole at center and on defense that they can't fill due to CBA restrictions
3. Detroit: Way too young and too good to risk an all-in trade right now
4. San Antonio: See Detroit
5. Lakers: Nothing to trade except Reaves who the Jazz could grab in FA
6. Cleveland: Hmmmm
7. Orlando: Way too tough to make a trade work and any trade that does work involves Franz which I'm sure they don't want to do.

Outside of Cleveland, can't really see a team making a significant offer at all right now.

Detroit would be willing to offer Ron Holland plus a pick or two and SA would offer similar value, but Cleveland is really the only team that could go above that (maybe by moving Garland for pieces?)

Keep Lauri and then sign Reaves to a max contract may end up being what we do.
 
If the Jazz get another non-star prospect this draft and then decide to try to win, this is going to be the most pointless 4 year tank of all time, lol.

2 massive busts and 2 non-stars just to be in the same place before all the tanking except having wasted four years of Lauri's career.
Not really. The Jazz in the last year of Gobert and Mitchell were a declining aging team with no draft assets to improve. The only quality young player was Mitchell and he clearly wanted to be out.

Even f the Jazz miss out on the top 3 players in the 2026 draft they will go forward as a young team with many tradable players and a string of incoming draft picks. That gives a GM many possible ways to improve the team, unlike the 2021-22 Jazz.
 
Lauri's potential trade market is very odd right now. The teams he fits with

1. Miami: Requires Terry Rozier's contract being traded which may or may not be allowed by the CBA
2. Golden State: Requires trading Draymond and Kuminga and leaves them with a massive hole at center and on defense that they can't fill due to CBA restrictions
3. Detroit: Way too young and too good to risk an all-in trade right now
4. San Antonio: See Detroit
5. Lakers: Nothing to trade except Reaves who the Jazz could grab in FA
6. Cleveland: Hmmmm
7. Orlando: Way too tough to make a trade work and any trade that does work involves Franz which I'm sure they don't want to do.

Outside of Cleveland, can't really see a team making a significant offer at all right now.

Detroit would be willing to offer Ron Holland plus a pick or two and SA would offer similar value, but Cleveland is really the only team that could go above that (maybe by moving Garland for pieces?)

Keep Lauri and then sign Reaves to a max contract may end up being what we do.
I don't see much of a path for Cleveland to trade for Lauri. They are over the 2nd apron so can't combine players in a trade or take back more salary than they send out. Lauri obviously makes quite a bit more than Garland.

I highly doubt Detroit would ever consider dealing Ausur.

For better or worse it's looking like the plan is to keep Lauri while doing whatever necessary to keep their '26 FRP.
 
Not really. The Jazz in the last year of Gobert and Mitchell were a declining aging team with no draft assets to improve. The only quality young player was Mitchell and he clearly wanted to be out.

Even f the Jazz miss out on the top 3 players in the 2026 draft they will go forward as a young team with many tradable players and a string of incoming draft picks. That gives a GM many possible ways to improve the team, unlike the 2021-22 Jazz.

The Jazz traded Conley, NAW, Vanderbilt, and Beasley for a late 2027 first to intentionally tank for a few years when they could have packaged picks to make the playoffs that season.
 
is there a sell high aspect to Lauri? last night's game got me a tad paranoid in the sense that i can see him getting tired and his numbers tanking at some point in the season. perhaps not now, maybe it's just a couple down games (scored just 19 vs okc - an efficient 19, but just 8 shot attempts could be a sign of fatigue), but maybe late december, early january. he's coming of a pretty bad season for him, and it would suck to if the jazz are getting great offers for him and it turns out his best seasons are behind him.
 
is there a sell high aspect to Lauri? last night's game got me a tad paranoid in the sense that i can see him getting tired and his numbers tanking at some point in the season. perhaps not now, maybe it's just a couple down games (scored just 19 vs okc - an efficient 19, but just 8 shot attempts could be a sign of fatigue), but maybe late december, early january. he's coming of a pretty bad season for him, and it would suck to if the jazz are getting great offers for him and it turns out his best seasons are behind him.

I just don't see a team that would be offering that much for him right now outside of Cleveland if they can execute a really complicated 4-5 team trade. Detroit is not throwing out massive offers at 14-2.

If Cleveland can turn Garland and Jarrett Allen into a decent wing and Lauri, I'm sure they would love to, but this would be an extremely complex trade.
 
You can't make big interpretations based on some OKC game, that team is insane and defensively the worst possible matchup to Lauri as of many.

The Lakers game again... First time this season Lauri felt more just annoyed than poised - but still got it going for last five minutes. I said somewhere this rest of the year will mean his averages for down bc there's so many good teams ahead. Teams that play good defense and understand how to game plan over Lauri and live with it if they leave lesser players open.
 
is there a sell high aspect to Lauri? last night's game got me a tad paranoid in the sense that i can see him getting tired and his numbers tanking at some point in the season. perhaps not now, maybe it's just a couple down games (scored just 19 vs okc - an efficient 19, but just 8 shot attempts could be a sign of fatigue), but maybe late december, early january. he's coming of a pretty bad season for him, and it would suck to if the jazz are getting great offers for him and it turns out his best seasons are behind him.

I'm mostly worried about running him into the ground. He's never played this many MPG, and he's also not been the healthiest guy throughout his career. I don't think there's a good reason to push him this hard. You're not the first person to point out that he's looked tired at points this season. Even if we were in 100% win now mode I think 36MPG is too much and broaches in to Thibs territory.
 
You can't make big interpretations based on some OKC game, that team is insane and defensively the worst possible matchup to Lauri as of many.

The Lakers game again... First time this season Lauri felt more just annoyed than poised - but still got it going for last five minutes. I said somewhere this rest of the year will mean his averages for down bc there's so many good teams ahead. Teams that play good defense and understand how to game plan over Lauri and live with it if they leave lesser players open.
i feel like this is a response to me. if so, i think you missed the point. i even said it might have just been bad two game stretch. the point is, he is being asked to carry a huge load, and it shouldn't be shocking if he gets worn down and the numbers come down drastically.

i'm also not saying the jazz should trade him. just a thought that came to mind and thought i'd throw it out there.
 
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