The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

[fishonjazz]

Where the **** do you get Kirkland brand vodka from?

And BTW I think I read somewhere that Kirkland brand vodka is rebranded Grey Goose.

My bro in law bought a bunch of it from a costco in vegas for me


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[leftyjace]

I'm not around that much anymore, but I'm going to drop in a Russia/Ukraine war explainer I wrote about 5 weeks ago for Facebook followers...

Thank you for writing that, seriously.

 

[Avery]

I'm glad to see that my prediction of Kyiv falling this weekend didn't come true. Ukraine has fought back much better than I anticipated.

I get the sense that Russia's military isn't as well funded or trained as we've been led to believe.

 

[lauriandres]

As the proverb states: "Every new thing/event/experience is the forgotten old one".

 

[candrew]

I wish I was this optimistic. I still think it is unlikely, but I think there is a small chance he goes full crazy.

To borrow a phrase from Donald Rumsfeld the "known unknown" is how Putin will react when NATO and most of the rest of the first world essentially turns Russia into North Korea?

That is cut off from the rest of the world financial markets with a worthless/untradeable currency with only a barter for barter market existing with China and maybe a few other second/third world countries that can't be bought (who I'm surrrreeeee will not take advantage of the situation)

Are there any off-ramps left for Putin, a guy who may have lost it a little, where he can save face?

Where is the line of demarcation when Putin starts acting like a cornered animal?

Dangerous times.

 

[babe]

Was linked to this. It's 30 minutes. Worthwhile, in my opinion.

Almost all of the way through this I was thinking it's obviously biased and defective because of the almost complete lack of references to the diplomatic negotiations that have gone on since before WWII, in fact since 1917. I consider the entire Cold War a propaganda fraud on the world because of the real behind the scenes relationships.

Then at near the end, the reason was given: It would not be available for us to read if that truth were told.

I did learn some things I did not know here, however.

 

[babe]

Do you know what photoshopped means?

Probably not. Into every skull some world fall, and some come out at well, with meanings nobody can really nail down.

I meant that it was something Zelensky did in front of a neutral screne in some damn studio, with a tourist pic later added for a background. I suppose you mean all elements have to be pulled off of some existing library and maybe, or maybe not, modified with some computer effects. Who the hell cares.

 

[babe]

It’s amazing how he takes Russia’s side every ****ing time. He’s hardly a neutral observer here.

So let’s say it’s photoshopped. Okay, So does That zelenksy has fled? That he’s dead? Gee, who would want that to be the truth?

Pretty extreme take on pretty damn few facts. Why is it important to you to ignore 90% of what I've ever said of Russia or Putin, and twist the rest. I think since you have no actual facts to support this campaing is violation of supposed forum rules.

But go ahead, with your buddies, do your damnedest.

The facrt is, imo, that Putin wants Zelensky alive and well and at a negotiating table. As a comedian, he has a lot of street cred. Easier to work through him than around him.

And any kind of webz or pic shenanigans can be done just as well wherever the hell he is as wherever the hell you might think he is.

I think he does not want Putin to have his geotag. Or even Biden and our "services" for that matter. He's worth more to the fascists dead than alive. His live is in fact beneficial to Putin. The whole idea of being "reasoned" depends on the treatment Zelensky gets during negations.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

It is interesting to note that Turkey has officially recognized Russia's incursion into Ukraine as a war. Per the 1936 Montreau Convention, that means the passage into the Black Sea is now closed to Russian war ships. If a Russian war ship tries to run the blockade then Turkey can sink it, and if the Russians return fire then the United States will be at war because Turkey is a NATO country.

 

[babe]

Yeah, you're wrong and your take is kind of dumb.

There is NO alternative to SWIFT now and China can work on one all it wants but I think 99% of the world is happy with SWIFT so there is no reason anyone would move to an alternative. So if China ever develops it and if it is adopted it will be far too late to stop the economic impact on Russia in the near future.

you have no reasoned discussion relevant to the analysis I referred to. Sure it's one man's opinion, but I listened to his interview for the full length.

Pretty clear how partisan you are. That tells me something, considering your preferred sources.

Pretty sure Putin had good analysis of his opponents. He might have felt he had to do this, or just forever be attacked, with no place to run. I think that is part, at least, of the "why" for all this. But then I have nothing near that kind of information base. I am certain Kicky does, but I am equally, or more, certain of his partisanship. Probably couldn't see dayl9ight between him ande Fiona Hill. Eeewwww that sounds gross, but let's clear it up. In point of view. That's all. He is as committed to that as Red is.

No matter how bad the "King" is, I am inclined to worry about who will replace Putin. It could be worse. Especially if you for any reason are all for it.

 

[babe]

It is interesting to note that Turkey has officially recognized Russia's incursion into Ukraine as a war. Per the 1936 Montreau Convention, that means the passage into the Black Sea is now closed to Russian war ships. If a Russian war ship tries to run the blockade then Turkey can sink it, and if the Russians return fire then the United States will be at war because Turkey is a NATO country.

sources would be nice.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

sources would be nice.

Source to show the 1936 Montreau Convention grants Turkey the power to close the passage to the Black Sea to belligerent nations:

"Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey Vasyl Bodnar went on local television last week and appealed for the government in Ankara to close its key straits to Russian warships under provisions of the 1936 Montreux Convention. Turkey said it could only do so if it officially recognized the conflict as a war, and on Sunday, that's what it did."

"The convention gives Turkey certain control over the passage of warships from the Dardanelles and Bosphorus Straits that connect the Aegean, Marmara, and Black Sea."

How a 1936 treaty could force Turkey to take sides in the Ukraine war | CNN

Turkey has officially labelled Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a war, in a move that could potentially hinder some of Moscow's military activities in the region. Here's how it happened and what it means for the conflict.

www.cnn.com

Source to prove Turkey is a NATO country:

Member states of NATO - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Source to support an attack on a NATO country is considered an attack on all NATO countries including the United States:

What Is NATO’s Article 5? | HISTORY

The article, as the cornerstone of a charter signed in 1949, establishes solidarity among member states and has been invoked only once.

www.history.com