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The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

Man, this is some scary ****. Never thought I'd see anything like this in my lifetime.
You aren't old enough to remember nuclear attack drills in elementary school apparently. Growing up near Hill Air Force Base it was a constant reminder that it was a level 2 site, or something like that, meaning it was on the 2nd list of known attack targets so we would be seeing the missiles nearly as soon as DC would. So we grew up with that in the back of our minds most of the time, and drilling for the eventuality in school. As if hiding under your desk just a few miles from ground zero would actually do anything.

Not trying to discount the current situation at all. This is a situation we really have never seen, with someone taking unilateral action against a peaceful neighboring country with the threat of using nukes in the process. It is scary as hell.
 
I remember the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. Hiding under our school desks, as if that would have made a difference. Next door neighbors building a bomb shelter in their basement. Nerve wracking time…

Final text of a Russian soldier to his mom, who didn‘t even know he was in Ukraine…

”We were told they would welcome us….and they are throwing themselves under our wheels….”

 
Just swinging by to say that the article about Fiona Hill's impressions of Putin should be viewed as the most reliable source available to us.

I've read a LOT of books about Putin. He's absurdly hard to get a read on and his intentions are almost always opaque. One of the reasons a certain posters unqualified statements about what Putin wants, thinks, or would agree to are so ludicrous is because people who make watching Russia their entire profession struggle to understand the man.

All that said, Fiona Hill's book on Putin is the best one. And it's not even close. It starts all the way back with his parents experiences before he was born, how that affected their parental decisions, and how he responded to specific professional stresses in East Germany and in the St. Petersburg mayor's office. She builds a psychological profile based upon how different events changed him. It's the most complete picture of the guy I've ever seen, and its' been the most predictive of his behavior since he wrote it.

If she says he would use a nuke: you can't ignore that. That's a valid assessment by an expert.

Putin is a realist, at its ruthless core. Read Hans Morgenthaue. I am too
 
Has anyone been following the crazy story about the Chechen assassination squad that was "neutralized"? If the story is true in the manner that it is presented then it is an encouraging sign. That said, I know huge amounts of everything being broadcast is manipulative propaganda and probably shouldn't be trusted but I want it to be true.

If the story is new, supposedly Putin sent in to Ukraine a team or couple teams of Chechen fighters who specialize in hunting down and killing terrorist leaders. Their assignment was to find and assassinate Ukrainian President Zelensky. Ukraine is reporting the team(s) have been found and the threat eliminated. The interesting part is how they found them. The story is that someone inside the Russian FSB, Russia's equivalent to the FBI, leaked the detailed plans to the Ukrainian military so they had soldiers sitting and waiting in a prearranged ambush for the Chechen squad. If people high enough to have access to this kind of information in Russia's own government are thwarting Putin then maybe someone can stop Putin or maybe think twice about launching a nuke.

Obviously this could all be fake. There may have never been a Chechen assassination squad. If there was a squad, the source of the deployment information could have been from western intelligence agencies or satellite tracking and credited to the Russian FBS to sow distrust.

 
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Has anyone been following the crazy story about the Chechen assassination squad that was "neutralized"? If the story is true in the manner that it is presented then it is an encouraging sign. That said, I know huge amounts of everything being broadcast is manipulative propaganda and probably shouldn't be trusted but I want it to be true.

If the story is new, supposedly Putin sent in to Ukraine a team or couple teams of Chechen fighters who specialize in hunting down and killing terrorist leaders. Their assignment was to find and assassinate Ukrainian President Zelensky. Ukraine is reporting they team(s) have been found and the threat eliminated. The interesting part is how they found them. The story is that someone inside the Russian FSB, Russia's equivalent to the FBI, leaked the detailed plans to the Ukrainian military so they had soldiers sitting and waiting in a prearranged ambush for the Chechen squad. If people high enough to have access to this kind of information in Russia's own government are thwarting Putin then maybe someone can stop Putin or maybe think twice about launching a nuke.

Obviously this could all be fake. There may have never been a Chechen assassination squad. If there was a squad, the source of the deployment information could have been from western intelligence agencies or satellite tracking and credited to the Russian FBS to sow distrust.

With the understanding that this could all be propaganda (like the supermodels-in-arms, or the sunflower granny), this is also in the same vein, showing that Putin's power base may be starting to crack.

Jerusalem Post: $1 million bounty on Putin offered by Russian businessman
 
A sad, sad but somewhat welcome byproduct of this whole situation is that NATO countries (besides the US) will be bulking up militarily. In other words, the United States will no longer need to be the only significant armed country in NATO.

Telling are a few paragraphs from this opinion piece, which I agree with:

It isn't just Putin's aggression that has woken Europe from its slumber. The diplomat explained that in conversations with counterparts, officials had taken note of the lead that US President Joe Biden has taken in coordinating the West's response.

"A big fear in European capitals: what would have happened if Biden wasn't in the White House at the moment? No one seriously believes that Trump would have handled this well and we may have him or someone like him back in a couple of years. Effectively, that means we have to assume we are alone," the diplomat added.

One of the main reasons that the Western response, especially in Europe, has been so unusually coordinated is that the EU and NATO have operated unexpectedly well. Officials in both institutions said this is because for the first time that many of them could remember, both institutions stuck to their competences and worked in lockstep.

Europe's thinking on defense, security and foreign affairs has evolved light years in the matter of a few days. It is now waking up from a decades-long dream that the stability provided by an interconnected world would prevent war breaking out and that, should the worst happen, America would sort it out.

 
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Just swinging by to say that the article about Fiona Hill's impressions of Putin should be viewed as the most reliable source available to us.

I've read a LOT of books about Putin. He's absurdly hard to get a read on and his intentions are almost always opaque. One of the reasons a certain posters unqualified statements about what Putin wants, thinks, or would agree to are so ludicrous is because people who make watching Russia their entire profession struggle to understand the man.

All that said, Fiona Hill's book on Putin is the best one. And it's not even close. It starts all the way back with his parents experiences before he was born, how that affected their parental decisions, and how he responded to specific professional stresses in East Germany and in the St. Petersburg mayor's office. She builds a psychological profile based upon how different events changed him. It's the most complete picture of the guy I've ever seen, and its' been the most predictive of his behavior since he wrote it.

If she says he would use a nuke: you can't ignore that. That's a valid assessment by an expert.
I disaagree of course, with Fiona Hill. She's a political hack with a pre-determined anti-Putin "cause". Like I said, in other threads, Putin has been critical of the UN and our (the West, as in NATO, EU, US/UK for repeatedly pushing NATO to his doorstep, contrary to many diplamatic assurances, in Putin's view, negotiated terms for various agreements. I have cited a recent book by a historian on that subject.

Kicky questions my assessment that I know his politics, views, and such on this subject. I said I doubted anyone could see daylight between Kicky and Fiona Hill. Now, was I right about that/

I know I have read and looked for whatever valid points Putin may have from some sources, which are noted in balanced reviews as one of three or more possible viewpoints on it all, and that source characterized what I have been saying as Putin's point of view.

Far from being opaque, he has openly and publicly campained for an agreement to honor the statements our top diplomats made when Russia was deciding to withdraw its forces from East Germany, that NATO military would not move "One incher close" to Moscow.

Beyond looking for some kind of rationality in Putin, I basically equate him with Obama and Hillary except these leaders of ours are clearly still communist ideologues with Cloward-Piven notions of reducing superpower USA to a rough equivalency with China, maybe India and even Brazil. J. William Fulbright's advice on essentially adopting a Confucian value system in one respect.

One of my Chinese friends explained to me this way. If you go to Chinese restaurant and notice an old slow poke janitor doing menial chores, that's probably the owner. The Boss. It is very important not to be the target. This would be the least of reasons, among many, to make the case that neither Mao nor Xi are genuine Confucian believers. They are Western in many respects. More like the emperor sort of figures. But it might still be important to look for the puppet master running the show.

I think that was Oscar Wilde's point about British diplomacy circa 1890 in his comedy "The Importance of Being Earnest"

I actually prefer Brit and US legal tradition following from the Magna Carta and the Constitution and Bill of Rights. I would expand the notions of inalienable human rights and the necessity of limiting government power.

I am in no sense a supporter of Putin or Biden. neither Putin, Xi, or any of our Honchos are genuine supporters of those American "Exceptional" traditions.

I know I am not one of Kicky's favs or literally anyone else's here. In fact, it is precisely these values that annoy so many in here.
 
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I disaagree of course, with Fiona Hill. She's a political hack with a pre-determined anti-Putin "cause". Like I said, in other threads, Putin has been critical of the UN and our (the West, as in NATO, EU, US/UK for repeatedly pushing NATO to his doorstep, contrary to many diplamatic assurances, in Putin's view, negotiated terms for various agreements. I have cited a recent book by a historian on that subject.

Kicky questions my assessment that I know his politics, views, and such on this subject. I said I doubted anyone could see daylight between Kicky and Fiona Hill. Now, was I right about that/

I know I have read and looked for whatever valid points Putin may have from some sources, which are noted in balanced reviews as one of three or more possible viewpoints on it all, and that source characterized what I have been saying as Putin's point of view.

Far from being opaque, he has openly and publicly campaing for an agreement to honor the statgement our top diplomat= made when Russia was deciding to withdraw its forces from East Germany, that NATO militgary would not move "One incher close" to Moscow.

Beyond looking for some kind of rationality in Putin, I basically equate him with Obama and Hillary except these are s clearly still communist ideologues with Cloward-Piven notions of reducing superpower USA to a rough equivalency with China, maybe India and even Brazil. J. William Fulbright's advice on essentially adopting a Confucian value system in one respect.

One of my Chinese friends explained to me this way. If you go to Chinese restaurant and notice an old slow poke janitor doing menial chores, that's probably the owner. The Boss. It is very important not to be the target. This would be the least of reasons, among many, to make the case that neither Mao nor Xi are genuine Confucian believers. They are Western in many respects. More like the emperor sort of figures. But it might still be important tol look for the puppet master running the show.

I think that was Oscar Wilde's point about British diplomacy circa 1890 in his comedy "The Importance of Being Earnest"

I actually prefer Brit and US legal tradition following from the Magna Carta and the Constitution and Bill of Rights. I would expand the notions of inalienable human rights and the necessity of limiting government power.

I am in no sense a supporter of Putin or Biden. neither Putin, Xi, or any of our Honchos are genuine supporters of those American "Exceptional" traditions.

I know I am not one of Kicky's favs or literally anyone else's here. In fact, it is precisely these values that annoy so many in here.
This is Russian propaganda.

What’s funny is that conquering Ukraine would’ve brought him closer to NATO than if he had just left Ukraine alone. LOL
 
I disaagree of course, with Fiona Hill. She's a political hack with a pre-determined anti-Putin "cause". Like I said, in other threads, Putin has been critical of the UN and our (the West, as in NATO, EU, US/UK for repeatedly pushing NATO to his doorstep, contrary to many diplamatic assurances, in Putin's view, negotiated terms for various agreements. I have cited a recent book by a historian on that subject.

Kicky questions my assessment that I know his politics, views, and such on this subject. I said I doubted anyone could see daylight between Kicky and Fiona Hill. Now, was I right about that/

I know I have read and looked for whatever valid points Putin may have from some sources, which are noted in balanced reviews as one of three or more possible viewpoints on it all, and that source characterized what I have been saying as Putin's point of view.

Far from being opaque, he has openly and publicly campaing for an agreement to honor the statgement our top diplomat= made when Russia was deciding to withdraw its forces from East Germany, that NATO militgary would not move "One incher close" to Moscow.

Beyond looking for some kind of rationality in Putin, I basically equate him with Obama and Hillary except these are s clearly still communist ideologues with Cloward-Piven notions of reducing superpower USA to a rough equivalency with China, maybe India and even Brazil. J. William Fulbright's advice on essentially adopting a Confucian value system in one respect.

One of my Chinese friends explained to me this way. If you go to Chinese restaurant and notice an old slow poke janitor doing menial chores, that's probably the owner. The Boss. It is very important not to be the target. This would be the least of reasons, among many, to make the case that neither Mao nor Xi are genuine Confucian believers. They are Western in many respects. More like the emperor sort of figures. But it might still be important tol look for the puppet master running the show.

I think that was Oscar Wilde's point about British diplomacy circa 1890 in his comedy "The Importance of Being Earnest"

I actually prefer Brit and US legal tradition following from the Magna Carta and the Constitution and Bill of Rights. I would expand the notions of inalienable human rights and the necessity of limiting government power.

I am in no sense a supporter of Putin or Biden. neither Putin, Xi, or any of our Honchos are genuine supporters of those American "Exceptional" traditions.

I know I am not one of Kicky's favs or literally anyone else's here. In fact, it is precisely these values that annoy so many in here.
Lol. You are a hack. You have not made coherent sense in one post. If that was your intent, well done. If not, also, well done.
 
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