THIS JUST IN: The Associated Press reports Mountain West, Conference USA combine for 22-member

[colton]

What if Boise, Air Force and Central Florida all stay put and this new MWC/CUSA merger results in an AQ bid? Do most BYU fans still feel that independence is better than being a part of that?

There is ZERO chance the merger results in an AQ bid. I looked into this a year or so ago, and for AQ status the BCS essentially looks at the AVERAGE football ranking in the conference. When two conferences merge like this, the average stays the same. Therefore two non AQ conferences merging will do absolutely nothing into turning the merged conference into an AQ one. Unless they do something like kick out the bottom third of the schools after the merger, I suppose. That would probably do it.

When I did the calculation a year or two ago, I learned that even if Utah, BYU, and TCU had all stayed put, Boise State joining the MWC would not have pushed it over the AQ edge. There were just too many "dogs" in the conference. I was really surprised by that, but I used the same calculation the BCS uses. (Can't remember right now the full details of the calculation and don't want to take the time to google it, sorry.)

 

[SaltyDawg]

There is ZERO chance the merger results in an AQ bid. I looked into this a year or so ago, and for AQ status the BCS essentially looks at the AVERAGE football ranking in the conference. When two conferences merge like this, the average stays the same. Therefore two non AQ conferences merging will do absolutely nothing into turning the merged conference into an AQ one. Unless they do something like kick out the bottom third of the schools after the merger, I suppose. That would probably do it.

When I did the calculation a year or two ago, I learned that even if Utah, BYU, and TCU had all stayed put, Boise State joining the MWC would not have pushed it over the AQ edge. There were just too many "dogs" in the conference. I was really surprised by that, but I used the same calculation the BCS uses. (Can't remember right now the full details of the calculation and don't want to take the time to google it, sorry.)

You are not considering all of the variables here. I think there is a very good chance this new conference gets a BCS game, and here is why.

The MWC and CUSA hired a consultant to get them a BCS game. He recommended they merge, or at least agree to a championship game between those 2 conferences.

This consultant was then hired by the Big 12 and is currently their new commissioner. He has publicly stated that he is still working with the MWC and CUSA, and is committed to getting them a BCS game.

The Big 12 is looking to expand, this is no secret. The Big East is on the verge of collapse, this is also no secret. The Big 12 is looking at possibly adding several Big East teams, and already added TCU.

If the Big East collapses, their BCS game will have to find a new conference to be affiliated with.

It's not a stretch to think the Big 12 commissioner will try to make this happen. He has already publicly stated that he remains committed to getting the MWC and CUSA a BCS game, they are still following his plan, and he is in a position to finish the job now by killing the Big East while simultaneously saving the Big 12.

I honestly think BYU to the Big 12 died the day this guy was hired. I think he planned all along to invite Big East teams, for the reasons listed. Plus, with super conferences on the horizon, killing the Big East right now helps the long term stability of the Big 12.

I read last year that the WAC would no longer be a conference under NCAA rules if they had fewer than 6 teams that were in the conference the previous year. I doubt the rules are different for the Big East. And as of this moment, the Big East only has 6 teams that haven't announced they are leaving.

The Big 12 is rumored to be looking at adding 2 or 3 Big East teams, but they probably only need to add 1 to kill the Big East (which would give the MWC/CUSA a BCS game).

 

[colton]

The Big East is on the verge of collapse... If the Big East collapses, their BCS game will have to find a new conference to be affiliated with.

That's a valid point. The Mountain West/Conf USA conference would probably be the leading candidate to take a BCS game if that happens. But I personally don't think it's going to collapse.

 

[7StraightIsGreat]

That's a valid point. The Mountain West/Conf USA conference would probably be the leading candidate to take a BCS game if that happens. But I personally don't think it's going to collapse.

I think your numbers are 100% valid and Salty's point is pretty valid too. Either way, I think it's clear that the 6 schools that are getting Big East invites are going to dictate where that AQ invite ends up.

If they decide to stay with the MWC/CUSA conference, that's probably the Big East's death nail and the MWC/CUSA conference may get AQ status by default. Granted, it's a long shot but I wonder if BYU shows interest under that scenario. BYU could be a big fish in that conference and that could go a long ways towards them dictating no sunday play, perhaps a new TV deal, and the chance to keep some rebroadcast rights on byutv.

Plus, it's not like BYU would simply be crawling back to the MWC. The situation would have changed dramatically and it wouldn't be too hard for both the MWC and BYU to put a positive spin on a BYU return. Not to mention the fact that they'd have a great chance to create a regional conference rivalry with Boise St.

 

[bigb]

I think your numbers are 100% valid and Salty's point is pretty valid too. Either way, I think it's clear that the 6 schools that are getting Big East invites are going to dictate where that AQ invite ends up.

If they decide to stay with the MWC/CUSA conference, that's probably the Big East's death nail and the MWC/CUSA conference may get AQ status by default. Granted, it's a long shot but I wonder if BYU shows interest under that scenario. BYU could be a big fish in that conference and that could go a long ways towards them dictating no sunday play, perhaps a new TV deal, and the chance to keep some rebroadcast rights on byutv.

Plus, it's not like BYU would simply be crawling back to the MWC. The situation would have changed dramatically and it wouldn't be too hard for both the MWC and BYU to put a positive spin on a BYU return. Not to mention the fact that they'd have a great chance to create a regional conference rivalry with Boise St.

No way BYU goes back. No way, no way, no way.

 

[7StraightIsGreat]

No way BYU goes back. No way, no way, no way.

Pride's a helluva thing isn't it? Even though it wouldn't be going back in regards to the fact that the landscape would have changed dramatically, I agree with you that BYU wouldn't look that direction. IMO that would be too bad because it would easily be the best way for BYU to gain BCS access.

 

[bigb]

Pride's a helluva thing isn't it? Even though it wouldn't be going back in regards to the fact that the landscape would have changed dramatically, I agree with you that BYU wouldn't look that direction. IMO that would be too bad because it would easily be the best way for BYU to gain BCS access.

This new conference won't be AQ. All the teams left won't ever qualify, so it doesn't matter. Even if Boise stays, they won't be AQ.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Boise St.'s best chance at AQ is to go to an AQ conference. Cut and dry. That's how it is. If they can get into the Big East, that IS AQ-ing for them. It makes no sense for them to stick around if they have an offer.

 

[trigg3r]

Boise St.'s best chance at AQ is to go to an AQ conference. Cut and dry. That's how it is. If they can get into the Big East, that IS AQ-ing for them. It makes no sense for them to stick around if they have an offer.

It depends. Joining the Big East obviously is not their first choice. Maybe they wait it out at least a little bit and see if they can't get some consideration from the Big 12. We all know why the Big East wants them. In order to keep that AQ they need a football team like Boise State which has had a nice track record of success recently.

 

[NUMBERICA]

It depends. Joining the Big East obviously is not their first choice. Maybe they wait it out at least a little bit and see if they can't get some consideration from the Big 12. We all know why the Big East wants them. In order to keep that AQ they need a football team like Boise State which has had a nice track record of success recently.

The Big 12 has Texas and Oklahoma. The rest of their teams could be Conference USA schools and they'd still have AQ. I don't think the Big 12 will go after Boise St. since they're a tiny market and really have no long-standing tradition. With getting TCU, I think momentum is in their favor and they're not going to go out that far just to fill out their conference (even though I think they should). The Big East on the other hand is on life-support right now. A school like Boise St would be a god-send for them. And vice-versa.

 

[trigg3r]

The Big 12 has Texas and Oklahoma. The rest of their teams could be Conference USA schools and they'd still have AQ. I don't think the Big 12 will go after Boise St. since they're a tiny market and really have no long-standing tradition. With getting TCU, I think momentum is in their favor and they're not going to go out that far just to fill out their conference (even though I think they should). The Big East on the other hand is on life-support right now. A school like Boise St would be a god-send for them. And vice-versa.

I agree. They probably stay away. I am just saying that Boise State would absolutely prefer being in the Big 12 if they could somehow pull that off. But that is highly unlikely. Oh and let's not leave OKST out. They are having a great year. Too bad they will have to face off with Oklahoma. Winner of that game could conceivably be in the National Championship Game facing either Bama or LSU.