I think your numbers are 100% valid and Salty's point is pretty valid too. Either way, I think it's clear that the 6 schools that are getting Big East invites are going to dictate where that AQ invite ends up.
If they decide to stay with the MWC/CUSA conference, that's probably the Big East's death nail and the MWC/CUSA conference may get AQ status by default. Granted, it's a long shot but I wonder if BYU shows interest under that scenario. BYU could be a big fish in that conference and that could go a long ways towards them dictating no sunday play, perhaps a new TV deal, and the chance to keep some rebroadcast rights on byutv.
Plus, it's not like BYU would simply be crawling back to the MWC. The situation would have changed dramatically and it wouldn't be too hard for both the MWC and BYU to put a positive spin on a BYU return. Not to mention the fact that they'd have a great chance to create a regional conference rivalry with Boise St.