Too good to tank?

[Handlogten's Heros]

It actually started with the previous regime’s lack of creativity on back center options, but I feel you.

Had we just signed Udoh we wouldn’t be in this situation.

Whiteside... or a bunch of other dudes... or just signed Favs for 7-8M instead of full MLE and eaten the contract and paid the tax. Like this pick was a cap casualty because Ryan didn't want to pay the tax and we wanted to sign Rudy Gay. There are a lot of different ways we could have cut costs if we had to.... but Ryan could have just paid the bill. Rough.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Yeah thats probably something you can balance with a bit. I personally feel like we are in the business of separating treasure from trash and discarding trash is worth at least whatever the opportunity cost is for not discarding trash.

I feel a bit hyperbolic about some of the young guys (mainly Kessler, Key and Ace).. and giving them opportunity to succeed feels a step in the right direction. I understand this year is special because we wouldnt do the "frisky play-off push" few years ago and the burden of Favors is still there... but Im not worried about losing 9th or 10th pick as that is NOT the top end talent I want to queue for.

The prospect of landing one of the top guys is the side I struggle with, not the "forfeit to OKC" side.

I'm intereted to know your stance on that. Like is this more about the chance of landing Peterson, Dybantsa, Boozer et al, or are you actually worried that losing the pick has some major impact on our success going forward?

It’s both. Co-sign everything fish and HH said, but want to add that having the 7th-worst record has higher lottery odds than 10th-worst record (>3x better odds!!!) and, as you know, the lottery is how one gets top-4.

 

[HermanG]

Its about both. I would say the all or nothing aspect is maybe slightly more important. Many AS are drafted between 5-8... at very least its a huge trade asset. Its just such a big value prop to lose out on... Landing top 4 is amazingly valuable. Landing 5-8 is meaningfully valuable... losing it all... yeesh.

What you say makes perfect sense. The dropoff from 8 to nothing is a big drop, and when the team starts to climb the ladder we can only dream of getting 8th pick quality guys.

I'm also 100% positive that if we are balancing on that border come trade deadline they will make impactful moves as they dont want to stay there. But what I'm not sure about is what direction they would choose. I could easily see them add reinforcements to push for the playoffs, if the standings look favorable enough.

 

[HermanG]

It’s both. Co-sign everything fish and HH said, but want to add that having the 7th-worst record has higher lottery odds than 10th-worst record (>3x better odds!!!) and, as you know, the lottery is how one gets top-4.

I agree and definitely see the extra incentive we have for not finishing 9th or 10th (as thats a bad apple from every perspective).

What I dont really co-sign is what fish said about us "losing a Key/Kessler" if that happens. Thats terrible cherry picking when the actual 9th and 10th guys we drafted over past few years are arguably the worst prospects we have rn.

 

[fishonjazz]

I agree and definitely see the extra incentive we have for not finishing 9th or 10th (as thats a bad apple from every perspective).

What I dont really co-sign is what fish said about us "losing a Key/Kessler" if that happens. Thats terrible cherry picking when the actual 9th and 10th guys we drafted over past few years are arguably the worst prospects we have rn.

That is a good response.
I should have said "possibly lose a key or Kessler to OKC".
I would rather not risk the chance that we are losing are impact player and giving them to okc

Sent from my OPD2203 using Tapatalk

 

[NAOS_pt2]

Yeesh, this conversation would be OVER if we had Kessler.

I'm ****ing glad that Keyonte looks like an All-Star and Ace is obviously going to be awesome. Let's hope Kessler comes back at near full-strength and that his 3pt shooting is real. They better do something impactful with the cap space, too.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

i had hope that key would improve, i didn't think he'd play at an all-star level. you can't lose at an elite level if you have two all-stars. the jazz need to start sitting lauri against bad teams and cody and hendricks need more minutes. it's honestly unacceptable that svi, nurk and love are taking so many minutes from those two while jazz play themselves out of a pick this year.

 

[KqWIN]

Losing the pick would be a disaster. Losing percentage points at an elite prospect is also a disaster even if it’s less obvious. But what really depresses me is that I would lose any belief I had in this FO. If we lose the pick for pride and ego, it’s confirmation that we are one of the dumbest teams in the league. I’d have no hope in the FO going forward and I know the Nepo is going to get a lot of runway.

Maybe I should already feel that way. The reason why this pick was traded in the first place was incredibly stupid.

 

[KqWIN]

This idea that we can just tank later on the season is mind boggling as well. Do people think W's don't count right now or something? It's great that Lauri, Key, and other young players have stepped up and made our team better. But there improvement is also why you can't F around as much. We can't just rely on having a 30 game losing streak or whatever later. And if we did have a 30 game losing streak in our back pocket, it would still benefit us to have 5 wins instead of 8 right now.It's like we learned nothing from this half and half business. In for a penny, in for a pound. If you're going to do something, do it in a way that gives you the most benefit and not in a way were you minimize the gains.

We don't even need to deploy the extreme measures to secure the pick and increase our chances at an elite prospect. By not doing modest measures now you're making it way more likely you have to do the gross tanking stuff later. And by modest....I really mean modest. We should pull levers that should be pulled whether we have a pick or not.

 

[baka98]

My worries have resurfaced…..

 

[hgb]

Losing the 9th pick in any draft is hardly a disaster. It would suck, of course, but you're rolling the dice here anyway.

 

[fishonjazz]

Losing the 9th pick in any draft is hardly a disaster. It would suck, of course, but you're rolling the dice here anyway.

On the other hand, losing it for no real reason or gain when it wouldn't be hard to keep it is just kinda dumb.

Like me losing $50 bucks isn't a disaster but i dont think I will ever hold a $50 bill out the window while driving on the free way. Makes way more sense to keep the $50 dollars safely stored away.

Also makes way more sense to just try to ensure that you keep the draft pick instead of throwing it out the window.