Trade Confirmed: Jazz get jack for Bogey

[framer]

Not sure it does at KO has more years on his deal. Neither is an expiring contract

I think he is only guaranteed 3 million next year.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Alright, so I actually think I figured out what happened here. It is of course context-dependent, but I would argue it is especially context-dependent:

I. The Jazz are operating under this basic framework ("The Plan"):
-A. The want to spend as little actual cash as possible during this era.
-B. So they are trying to get as close to 90% of the cap as possible (for those that don't know, teams are required to pay a minimum of 90% of the cap on player salaries. This means teams are throwing away utility if they have cap commitments below that figure or spending cash if they are above it).
-C. Danny Ainge has incredible power, only technically less powerful than Smith but in reality almost equally powerful (he is the alternate governor, after all)

II. As it stood and basically continues to stand:
-A. If all players on the Jazz with player options opt-in for '23-'24, they are at ~$105 million. This is important for calculation since the Jazz don't control if the players opt in or out, so to be conservative, they plan on them opting in.
-B. If the Jazz exercise the team option to keep Beasley next year, they are damn close to that 90% of the cap (~$121 million)

III. So, the operating parameters on a Bogey deal were:
-A. Maintain at least the option to get close to the 90% of the cap figure or below for next year
-B. Acquire some kind of utility; draft assets ideally, at least if deemed of sufficient quality while considering criterion A.

Reports indicate that in the prospective Phoenix or Miami deals, the Jazz would've had to take on longterm salary to get the draft assets, which violates one of the operating parameters. We're not ownership, and that's their prerogative. Fine. What about the Lakers deal? We'll come back to that.

The overarching operating framework (section I.) then kicks in, whereby they try to satisfy all criteria as much as possible (save CASH, maintain or enhance flexibility, satisfy Ainge). So they find the Detroit deal which does so (saves cash, gives a mostly-unguaranteed team option which you can argue could provide at least increased optionality, and Ainge gets one of his guys).

So now we come to the Lakers. Contrary to a lot of the narrative about him that reigns after he makes a great deal, I think there is a lot of evidence that his pride is often misconstrued as patience, and that that takes the lead in decision-making. Reports indicate that the Jazz basically could (/should) have satisfied ALL criteria above (I - III) by consolidating players and gotten ONE probably-unprotected 1st round pick later in the decade. But Ainge demanded TWO! And the first rule when working with Danny Ainge is when he sets a price, he only minimally budges. There are no more deals to make after that one, so the argument that he has to maintain negotiating integrity for the next deal is pretty hollow reasoning. Maybe the Lakers make the same calculation about JC that is premised above, so they want the Jazz to take back greater salary in the deal which has big cash ramifications this year (maybe not, though). So Danny's pride probably ruled the day because he didn't think he was getting enough back, went and found a pet that saved Ryan cash, and they moved on.

Where this gets frustrating to me is that without taking THT, there are fewer constraints on salaries that go beyond this year, and there's the possibility that JC would've been included in the deal to the Lakers, too. And Vanderbilt. But Ainge has a boner for THT, Vanderbilt, and Olynyk, so they stay.

Summary: Jazz should've taken the Lakers deal but didn't either because of cash implications this year, Danny's pride, or both; and the Jazz are planning on keeping Beasley (but are equally happy that he has a team option).

 

[Elizah Huge]

You don't know it was an unprotected 24 pick. If it was, Danny might have done the deal. I mean he has been pretty upfront about 3 things. Players with potential, good vets on expirings, and unprotected later year picks. Give him those, and the deal gets done. We had absolutely no interest in the Knicks garbage protected picks.

I mean if the deal from Phoenix is so good you would expect Indy or the Spurs to jump on it with their assets, no?

BTW, how is that moving vets for firsts going for Indiana and San Antonio since the Rudy and Donovan trades?

What player with an expiring contract who averages 18+ PPG is available from Indiana or San Antonio?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You don't know it was an unprotected 24 pick. If it was, Danny might have done the deal. I mean he has been pretty upfront about 3 things. Players with potential, good vets on expirings, and unprotected later year picks. Give him those, and the deal gets done. We had absolutely no interest in the Knicks garbage protected picks.

I mean if the deal from Phoenix is so good you would expect Indy or the Spurs to jump on it with their assets, no?

BTW, how is that moving vets for firsts going for Indiana and San Antonio since the Rudy and Donovan trades?

Holy hell… it’s because SA and Indiana don’t have Bojan… the Suns wanted Bogey and Vando. It was likely a 23 first offered by Phoenix… which isn’t ideal but it’s currency/value we can use if we feel we have too many picks in the 20s.

Straight up I think I’d rather have Saric on his deal than KO on his. If the deal was bogey for Crowder(can find a home for him and get a second for it) and Saric plus a first for bogey and Vando then it sucks to pay 150% of what we should for a second but it gives us a cleaner cap and a pick… I’d rather pay 150% to get something useful than sell a guy at 50% to get a vet on a somewhat expiring deal that Danny has a hard-on for. If it was Shamet and Crowder then whatevs but I’d still take it over the deal we did.

Also in all the deals we’ve done we’ve gotten no additional second round picks. It feels like that might be the **** Danny doesn’t have time for… the THT deal and Bogey deal should absolutely have had second rounders involved… again to use as currency to grease the wheels on future deals.

 

[NUMBERICA]

What player with an expiring contract who averages 18+ PPG is available from Indiana or San Antonio?

The difference between us and them is the Jazz are loaded with good vets that they are highly incentivized to move off of.

Should've taken the Laker pick (whatever the combination of players it was) and figured out the rest later. If it puts them in the tax, figure out how to get under it.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Holy hell… it’s because SA and Indiana don’t have Bojan… the Suns wanted Bogey and Vando. It was likely a 23 first offered by Phoenix… which isn’t ideal but it’s currency/value we can use if we feel we have too many picks in the 20s.

Straight up I think I’d rather have Saric on his deal than KO on his. If the deal was bogey for Crowder(can find a home for him and get a second for it) and Saric plus a first for bogey and Vando then it sucks to pay 150% of what we should for a second but it gives us a cleaner cap and a pick… I’d rather pay 150% to get something useful than sell a guy at 50% to get a vet on a somewhat expiring deal that Danny has a hard-on for. If it was Shamet and Crowder then whatevs but I’d still take it over the deal we did.

Also in all the deals we’ve done we’ve gotten no additional second round picks. It feels like that might be the **** Danny doesn’t have time for… the THT deal and Bogey deal should absolutely have had second rounders involved… again to use as currency to grease the wheels on future deals.

Check my post. The Jazz traded themselves into a corner with future salaries and are now operating under the rule of thumb of taking on close to no money in the future because that puts them over 90% of the cap under a worst-case calculation.

I disagree with their priorities if I'm right. I am very confident that's what this boils down to. That THT deal is driving me up the ****ing wall, but keeping Danny hard is part of the fundamental criteria of The Plan.

 

[Elizah Huge]

If the Phoenix deal was so good wouldn’t someone else have jumped on it? Lmao that’s ****ing hilarious.

We were fighting other teams for Olynyk because it was just such a good deal we just said fine we will take him with zero other assets attached.

 

[NUMBERICA]

If the Phoenix deal was so good wouldn’t someone else have jumped on it? Lmao that’s ****ing hilarious.

I'm sure you're alluding to this already, but just to be clear:

The Phoenix deal was for BOJAN BOGDANOVIC. THE PLAYER (AND THE CONTRACT). BECAUSE THEY ARE A TEAM WITH REAL WINNING ASPIRATIONS (AND LEGITIMATELY WANT FLEXIBILITY DOWN THE ROAD BECAUSE OF THEIR EXTANT COMMITMENTS). THE JAZZ HAD POSSESSION OF BOJAN BOGDANOVIC. NO ONE ELSE DID.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I'm sure you're alluding to this already, but just to be clear:

The Phoenix deal was for BOJAN BOGDANOVIC. THE PLAYER. BECAUSE THEY ARE A TEAM WITH REAL WINNING ASPIRATIONS. THE JAZZ HAD POSSESSION OF BOJAN BOGDANOVIC.

Nah, Daniel Theis or Doug McDermott should have been good enough to get the deal done lmao.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Alright, so I actually think I figured out what happened here. It is of course context-dependent, but I would argue it is especially context-dependent:

I. The Jazz are operating under this basic framework:
-A. The want to spend as little actual cash as possible during this era.
-B. So they are trying to get as close to 90% of the cap as possible (for those that don't know, teams are required to pay a minimum of 90% of the cap on player salaries. This means teams are throwing away utility if they have cap commitments below that figure or spending cash if they are above it).
-C. Danny Ainge has incredible power, only technically less powerful than Smith but in reality almost equally powerful (he is the alternate governor, after all)

II. As it stood and basically continues to stand:
-A. If all players on the Jazz with player options opt-in for '23-'24, they are at ~$105 million. This is important for calculation since the Jazz don't control if the players opt in or out, so to be conservative, they plan on them opting in.
-B. If the Jazz exercise the team option to keep Beasley next year, they are damn close to that 90% of the cap (~$121 million)

III. So, the operating parameters on a Bogey deal were:
-A. Maintain at least the option to get close to the 90% of the cap figure or below for next year
-B. Acquire some kind of utility; draft assets ideally, at least if deemed of sufficient quality while considering criterion A.

Reports indicate that in the prospective Phoenix or Miami deals, the Jazz would've had to take on longterm salary to get the draft assets, which violates one of the operating parameters. We're not ownership, and that's their prerogative. Fine. What about the Lakers deal? We'll come back to that.

The overarching operating framework (section I.) then kicks in, whereby they try to satisfy all criteria as much as possible (save CASH, maintain or enhance flexibility, satisfy Ainge). So they find the Detroit deal which does so (saves cash, gives a mostly-unguaranteed team option which you can argue could provide at least increased optionality, and Ainge gets one of his guys).

So now we come to the Lakers. Contrary to a lot of the narrative about him that reigns after he makes a great deal, I think there is a lot of evidence that his pride is often misconstrued as patience, and that that takes the lead in decision-making. Reports indicate that the Jazz basically could (/should) have satisfied ALL criteria above (I - III) by consolidating players and gotten ONE probably-unprotected 1st round pick later in the decade. But Ainge demanded TWO! And the first rule when working with Danny Ainge is when he sets a price, he only minimally budges. There are no more deals to make after that one, so the argument that he has to maintain negotiating integrity for the next deal is pretty hollow reasoning. Maybe the Lakers make the same calculation about JC that is premised above, so they want the Jazz to take back greater salary in the deal which has big cash ramifications this year (maybe not, though). So Danny's pride probably ruled the day because he didn't think he was getting enough back, went and found a pet that saved Ryan cash, and they moved on.

Where this gets frustrating to me is that without taking THT, there are fewer constraints on salaries that go beyond this year, and there's the possibility that JC would've been included in the deal to the Lakers, too. And Vanderbilt. But Ainge has a boner for THT, Vanderbilt, and Olynyk, so they stay.

Summary: Jazz should've taken the Lakers deal but didn't either because of cash implications this year, Danny's pride, or both; and the Jazz are planning on keeping Beasley (but are equally happy that he has a team option).

Based on our prior cap management I don’t think we plan this far ahead like this. I think there are a lot of correct principles/theories.

I think we will operate close to the floor next year and some of the player/team options will get picked up (THT and KO). If we still have Mike I think we might waive him and eat 14M instead of 24 or whatever it is.

I am not sure the lakers offered any picks… it weird for them to draw the line at one imo. They will need all three picks they can offer to make a big trade at the draft (draft night they can trade their pick plus 27/29). If there were deals to get one good premium far out pick… we needed to make it happen even if it looks like we lost the deal. We have a roster crunch which is fairly easy to work around but it is going to involve cutting some young guys… the bigger issue is the logjam. How in the hell is THT going to get on the floor with this team? JB ain’t seeing any minutes. Dok likely odd man out too… maybe it’s Kessler. Bolmaro ain’t playing either. It’s cute to say we can shut guys down or manage their minutes but good luck telling a healthy Conley/JC they aren’t playing. OKC was too good a couple years ago and just **** down Horford… it’s gross… I’d rather move those guys in one big deal and alleviate the roster crunch and log jam… but we traded a bet for another vet… no draft comp… weird.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I am not sure the lakers offered any picks…

@Tony Jones basically confirmed it.

I would add that my kinda-nutty but I think very well-structured deal of '26/'27/'29 swaps gives everyone what they're really looking for (for the Jazz, increased opportunities for premium compensation while consolidating players/addressing the logjam; for the Lakers, maintaining their future options while getting A LOT better now).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Check my post. The Jazz traded themselves into a corner with future salaries and are now operating under the rule of thumb of taking on close to no money in the future because that puts them over 90% of the cap under a worst-case calculation.

I disagree with their priorities if I'm right. I am very confident that's what this boils down to. That THT deal is driving me up the ****ing wall, but keeping Danny hard is part of the fundamental criteria of The Plan.

I saw it and it is weird to take on THT for no reason at all and then be like “we ain’t taking on any salary”. I’d love to know how that all went down cuz there were some weird things happening and the timing of that deal was just off.

I think part of the plan is not to be embarrassingly bad… and that is honestly what it will take to be a bottom 4 team. We are going to end up with 6th or 7th best odds and praying to get lucky.

Maybe we luck out and some of our vets have more trade value at the deadline or during the season… but the roster is still very much a cluster **** that needs some working out.

Kind of sucks cuz guys like Lee, JB, Dok going to get cut and those are the types of guys we should be giving 15 minutes a night to to see if they will figure it out.

If we had landed some second round picks we could actually offload some of those guys with the picks rather than pay them to go away.