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Trade deadline discussion

Handlogten's Heros said:
I always kinda thought the rush to have them salary dump Smart was premature. Even if it was Ingles and a 1st round pick that doesn't do a lot for them.

They have no urgency to do a deal that is okay-ish. They can do that deal in the offseason if they want. Gonna have to wow them right now or they wait.
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Larsen compared Powell's contract to Smart but Boston is not Portland. They are still trying to win and see where Tatum/Brown could take them. They are one good point guard away from becoming a force in the East again.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Conley deal was the best move the FO made in a while. It's still an extremely good trade for the Jazz.

The issue is how many assets they used up on backup center over and over again. That's really it. Anything else is nitpicking and having unrealistic expectations about how much a FO can get right.
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So this is a number of pages back, before another explosion of a rehashing of the Conley trade. I’m not certain if part of this was directed at me as my larger post where I referenced DL “keeping the powder dry” and it translating to Conley. Just some clarity on that:

Ever since we knew we had a window open, the time to act was immediately. In those situations, I'm an advocate of 'get what you can get when you can get it.' Everyone's view of "keeping the powder dry" was that we thought we'd get something larger than what we could really get. I know it seems crazy, but the discussion even here a number of years out was keeping that powder dry so that you'd have space for trying to sign someone like Klay Thompson or Kawhi Leonard. If back at the beginning of the Donovan era we were told that the powder would be used on Conley, people would be disappointed. Even when we had a couple years to let the expectations of what we'd get for the powder diminish, a not-small amount of people were fairly lukewarm on a Conley return. My larger point wasn't to do with Conley at all, but specifically about not advancing fast enough into viewing ourselves as a contender and holding off from making any moves because we had unreasonable expectations about what we'd be able to get farther down the road. Conley is fine. I was an advocate of the Conley deal. But if we had known Conley would have been our return on waiting until we went all-in, we probably would have been more open to other things sooner. That's not an indictment on Conley being a bad return, but more about being realistic and acting quickly on capitalizing on the window and not "saving the chips for later." By the time it came down to it, Conley was the only option. And that's fine. But now we're in a similar situation where we're kinda putting around. We'll inevitably fire Quin if/when things don't work out in the playoffs and because we need a scapegoat. This will result in us wasting more time, which will lead to another let-down performance, and we will then conclude that the window is closed and we need bigger changes and then we'll make a stupid move that squanders us having two multi-year all-stars for the first time since the statues.

tl;dr if Quin is going to be fired at the end of this season, we should fire him now. If we don't, it will result in us ultimately breaking up the DM/RG duo after the 2022-2023 season and we are going to spiral into some of the worst years of this franchise. We will look back on how we squandered the DM/RG era and didn't realize how good we had it and how close we were. In hindsight we will really appreciate how we squandered those years with a lack of urgency, and that had nothing to do with Conley. Ultimately, our lack of urgency will cause disappointing performances from DM/RG teams and we'll misdiagnose this as being a DM/RG problem and not a FO/leadership/coaching lack of urgency issue.
 
Bojan and Clarkson for Hayward saves us a couple bucks. You'd still have to sign an extra person, which would eat in to that a bit, but since we're this far into the season and we can do the rotating 10-days, it still saves you quite a bit between salary and tax. Ainge could complete the circle of taking away and returning Hayward. Hayward has three years left and Clarkson has three years left. Bojan has only two years left, so it just gives us that additional year of $18M beyond Bojan's contract. For Charlotte it gives them a guy you can plug in to Hayward's spot while allowing you to break Hayward's salary into a couple smaller guys that are easier to move in other deals.

Not saying that's going to save us, but nostalgic reboots are all the rage between Star Wars, The Matrix, Full House, Saved by the Bell, and every band from the past 50 years getting back together because they need a paycheck.
 
Alpy said:
People, please let's talk about trade deadline not Conley deal we made years ago. That deal was years ago, get used to it. And please don't react to people who trolls every thread with his stupid ideas.

Grant or Barnes? Which one you prefer? Why?
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Grant. Better defensively, more dynamic on offense. Not the same level shooter obviously, but for what we need Grant fits the bill better than Barnes.
 
My general trade deadline/state of the Jazz thoughts below.

1. Grant & (especially) Barnes are overrated. Advanced stats have never been a big fan of either. I think Barnes is at a point in his career where he's better off guarding 4's.
2. The Jazz have nearly as good of a chance as anyone to win the West. Maybe 20-25%. I think GSW is the best team. Phoenix poses a challenge in that Paul & Booker are good at hitting the midrange shots the Jazz are generally happy to concede. Utah does have the disadvantage of likely having to face both GSW & Phoenix and playing both on the road.
3. A lot of the narrative around what the Jazz "need" is based on last year's playoffs, particularly someone to guard 3s/4s. The best scorers on the other West contenders are all in the backcourt. Improving overall athleticism & rebounding will help, but I'm not super worried about bringing in a Mikal Bridges stopper or someone to shut down OPJr.
4. If no deal is out there, the Jazz should still 100% move Joe to save the $25MM in salary/tax. OKC will extract a cost for doing business, but because of the quirks of salary rules, OKC could actually pay out less in cash this year by trading for Joe if Utah sent money to cover the remainder of his contact.
5. Bogey, not Clarkson, is the biggest negative defensively. One or two highlights of BB playing Kawhi tough last spring doesn't change my opinion here. Advanced metrics also agree.
6. The West next year is going to be insane. Clippers will have PG/Kawhi & 10 interchangeable wings. The 100% healthy version of the Nuggets w/Jokic/Murray/Porter/Gordon put up insane stats last season. Warriors & Suns are unlikely to fall off dramatically. The Grizzlies are well-positioned for a consolidation move to add another big time player to Ja & Jaren.
7. Meanwhile, Conley, Bogey, Gay and maybe even Rudy are likely to decline due to age. The Jazz should still be able to compete, but 2022 is probably their best chance.
8. Of the options available at this year's deadline, Smart or Kenrich + reducing the tax bill significantly are the only ones that really excite me.
9. Richardson seems like a good fit on paper. I'm not sure why the advanced stats don't like him even in a year when he's shooting very well from the field.
10. I loved the Butler pick, but his early numbers finishing at the rim concern me. I hope they don't portend an athleticism deficit that's too steep to overcome.
11. I would not surrender a first for Barnes. I wouldn't trade Royce for Barnes straight up.
12. If the price for Grant is really two firsts, I'd want no part of that.
13. In general, I'd be hesitant to part with any more future firsts unless the return felt like it significantly improved Utah's odds of winning the conference. If no such deal is available, I'd be content throwing some seconds at a Justin Holiday or Jeremy Lamb type. I just don't see the gap between Barnes/Grant and these guys as being that big.
14. There's a very real scenario where the Jazz are rebuilding in a few years. If they're in a position where they need to move Donovan for whatever reason, I'd want the return from that trade to put the Jazz in a position where Utah is in a "plus" position in terms of draft assets, meaning they control their own stock plus whatever they get for Mitchell. I'd hate for any potential Mitchell return to merely get them back to even b/c the Jazz gave up so many future picks.
15. In general, I think Lindsey went one player too far in moving from the defense oriented teams in '18 and '19 to the all shooting editions these last two years. Getting Conley & Clarkson for Rubio/Exum and moving Favors out of the starting lineup would have been enough on their own to ensure a top-notch offense. I think Utah would be better off with a Crowder type than Bogey at that other forward spot.
16. I probably subscribe more to the "bites at the apple" philosophy than most posters here. By that I mean I think if the Jazz continue to make the playoffs with a team that's in the top few in the league in net rating, I assume at some point the bounces will go their way. I realize that's not the most popular option on here--there seem to be many advocates of going all-in--and Quinn is often criticized for talking about waiting to get a "good roll."
 
I'm setting the trade deadline bar at the Ingles and second(s?) for Thad Young deal people keep throwing against the wall. I actually would like the move if Quin embraces it for small ball purposes.

Go ahead and jump over that bar Jazz management. I dare you.
 
Deron Williams said:
My general trade deadline/state of the Jazz thoughts below.

1. Grant & (especially) Barnes are overrated. Advanced stats have never been a big fan of either. I think Barnes is at a point in his career where he's better off guarding 4's.
2. The Jazz have nearly as good of a chance as anyone to win the West. Maybe 20-25%. I think GSW is the best team. Phoenix poses a challenge in that Paul & Booker are good at hitting the midrange shots the Jazz are generally happy to concede. Utah does have the disadvantage of likely having to face both GSW & Phoenix and playing both on the road.
3. A lot of the narrative around what the Jazz "need" is based on last year's playoffs, particularly someone to guard 3s/4s. The best scorers on the other West contenders are all in the backcourt. Improving overall athleticism & rebounding will help, but I'm not super worried about bringing in a Mikal Bridges stopper or someone to shut down OPJr.
4. If no deal is out there, the Jazz should still 100% move Joe to save the $25MM in salary/tax. OKC will extract a cost for doing business, but because of the quirks of salary rules, OKC could actually pay out less in cash this year by trading for Joe if Utah sent money to cover the remainder of his contact.
5. Bogey, not Clarkson, is the biggest negative defensively. One or two highlights of BB playing Kawhi tough last spring doesn't change my opinion here. Advanced metrics also agree.
6. The West next year is going to be insane. Clippers will have PG/Kawhi & 10 interchangeable wings. The 100% healthy version of the Nuggets w/Jokic/Murray/Porter/Gordon put up insane stats last season. Warriors & Suns are unlikely to fall off dramatically. The Grizzlies are well-positioned for a consolidation move to add another big time player to Ja & Jaren.
7. Meanwhile, Conley, Bogey, Gay and maybe even Rudy are likely to decline due to age. The Jazz should still be able to compete, but 2022 is probably their best chance.
8. Of the options available at this year's deadline, Smart or Kenrich + reducing the tax bill significantly are the only ones that really excite me.
9. Richardson seems like a good fit on paper. I'm not sure why the advanced stats don't like him even in a year when he's shooting very well from the field.
10. I loved the Butler pick, but his early numbers finishing at the rim concern me. I hope they don't portend an athleticism deficit that's too steep to overcome.
11. I would not surrender a first for Barnes. I wouldn't trade Royce for Barnes straight up.
12. If the price for Grant is really two firsts, I'd want no part of that.
13. In general, I'd be hesitant to part with any more future firsts unless the return felt like it significantly improved Utah's odds of winning the conference. If no such deal is available, I'd be content throwing some seconds at a Justin Holiday or Jeremy Lamb type. I just don't see the gap between Barnes/Grant and these guys as being that big.
14. There's a very real scenario where the Jazz are rebuilding in a few years. If they're in a position where they need to move Donovan for whatever reason, I'd want the return from that trade to put the Jazz in a position where Utah is in a "plus" position in terms of draft assets, meaning they control their own stock plus whatever they get for Mitchell. I'd hate for any potential Mitchell return to merely get them back to even b/c the Jazz gave up so many future picks.
15. In general, I think Lindsey went one player too far in moving from the defense oriented teams in '18 and '19 to the all shooting editions these last two years. Getting Conley & Clarkson for Rubio/Exum and moving Favors out of the starting lineup would have been enough on their own to ensure a top-notch offense. I think Utah would be better off with a Crowder type than Bogey at that other forward spot.
16. I probably subscribe more to the "bites at the apple" philosophy than most posters here. By that I mean I think if the Jazz continue to make the playoffs with a team that's in the top few in the league in net rating, I assume at some point the bounces will go their way. I realize that's not the most popular option on here--there seem to be many advocates of going all-in--and Quinn is often criticized for talking about waiting to get a "good roll."
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Good take. I think the Jazz, once they saw they weren't going to compete for the #1 seed, would be happy to stay at #4 and target Phoenix in the 2nd round this year, much the way the Clippers targeted the Jazz last year. The Jazz should feel confident that they can beat the Mavs or the depleted Nuggets in the 1st round. After that, they should feel confident that they can come up with a defensive scheme for Chris Paul. The Suns, lacking a real stretch-5, would enable to the Jazz do get by defensively. The Warriors might present more problems for the Jazz, but might have a tough series with the Grizzlies before they reach the WCF.

I'm a believer in Jerami Grant, especially if he's the 2nd or 3rd option on a good team and the floor is well spaced for him. I think the Jazz could come up with ways to leverage his length and athleticism that might put him in All Star discussions. I think the Jazz are willing to offer a FRP along with Ingles as a starting point anyway, and they might want to go the distance in seeing if they can pry Grant away.

My concern with Harrison Barnes is his footspeed. The Jazz are a relatively slow and unathletic team by NBA standards, and I don't think Barnes really changes that much for us. He's a nice offensive player, all things considered.
 
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