Trade deadline discussion

[Handlogten's Heros]

Could also be the difference between winning a championship and not. In a series of highly unlikely hypotheticals, I'll take my shot at winning and live with the consequences. Like I said, the whole point of anything is to win a championship, and that opportunity is extremely rare. This is the best chance we have at winning in the last ~25 years. Given how unlikely it was that we got here in the first place, I'm not taking it for granted and not expecting it to happen again in the next 25 years. We can go on and on about hypotheticals on top of hypotheticals and land on how bad it could be to lose that pick. I'm not downplaying the risk, but what risk are we're talking about winning a championship versus thwarting a rebuild. No doubt the chances of it being the difference are lower than having it hurt us, but in terms of total championship equity? I think that 50 years from now we will say that pick was best used pumping up the 2022 Jazz.

And I think you can take that shot without throwing in a potential land mine. I think we are moving our chance from - losing in the second round in convincing fashion... to - making a better showing in the second round and being a little more feisty.

If you can flip a top 10 protected pick in 2027 for actual value then go for it, but Phoenix can throw in 1-2 picks before that plus they have an interesting young player like Cam Johnson for something spicy... GS has three young players that all have more value than the Jazz can lay at the table... plus their picks. Both teams are currently better than us... one team might be getting an all-star back soon (he might also suck). There are a lot more hypotheticals stacked up against us imo.

I think we are better off doing something around a guy that is a little less proven that might pop a bit... the challenge is Quin... would he actually play a Yuta if we had him? Quin seems to heavily favor the "known" and the "stable". He's closer to an accountant than a mad scientist. So maybe you do have to go for the name-brand guy... based on the deal I see that I think are actually available... there isn't one I'd do for an unprotected pick 5 years in the future. Its the type of move that turns you into Sacramento for 15 years... I get that the window is now for this group but you don't have to keep betting the next 10 years on it.

 

[Qman]

Think about who has stepped up in the playoffs:

Gobert
Mitchell
Conley
O'Neale

Who hasn't in recent years
Bogey
Ingles
Favors

The point is if we have a chance to turn Ingles and/or Bogey into a forward sized player with more two chops we have to do it. At this point I would be tempted to even go smaller and trade for a player like Norman Powell.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Think about who has stepped up in the playoffs:

Gobert
Mitchell
Conley
O'Neale

Who hasn't in recent years
Bogey
Ingles
Favors

The point is if we have a chance to turn Ingles and/or Bogey into a forward sized player with more two chops we have to do it. At this point I would be tempted to even go smaller and trade for a player like Norman Powell.

Bogey was good in the playoffs last year. Mike got hurt but was good in the memphis series. Rudy was gameplanned out by the Clips.

The anti-Bogey narrative is some serious ******** tbh. I think he's the 4th guy I keep if I'm trying to win a title.

 

[infection]

Bogey was good in the playoffs last year. Mike got hurt but was good in the memphis series. Quin was gameplanned out by the Clips.

FIFY.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

FIFY.

Ehhhh... its a Quin and a Rudy issue... and obviously a supporting cast issue. Rudy has some limitations... he's a top ten dude in the regular season but is the rare top ten guy that can become marginalized in some matchups. Its partly scheme for sure... but he gets a fair share of that blame pie. If our perimeter defenders were dynamic two way guys it wouldn't be as much of an issue, but it would still be a bit of an issue.

 

[infection]

Ehhhh... its a Quin and a Rudy issue... and obviously a supporting cast issue. Rudy has some limitations... he's a top ten dude in the regular season but is the rare top ten guy that can become marginalized in some matchups. Its partly scheme for sure... but he gets a fair share of that blame pie. If our perimeter defenders were dynamic two way guys it wouldn't be as much of an issue, but it would still be a bit of an issue.

If you let him guard someone, you shouldn't have as big of an issue. For instance, even if there were blowbys, I'd rather give up 7/10 at the rim from Jackson than 7/10 from deep by Mann.

 

[campaignist]

The Jazz need the equivalent of trading Bledsoe for Holiday. The Bucks definitely overpaid, but that’s what it took because they didn’t have the assets other teams had to offer.

To me, that is Bogey and Ingles (or Clarkson) and picks plus pick swaps for Siakam. Grant is less exciting to me but presumably wouldn’t take as much to get either.

Thank you, this is exactly what I was trying to figure out how to say. I'd only add picks or overpay if it's a Bledsoe/Holiday level deal. I don't think Grant rises to that level either.

Keep in mind, yes we have a good shot at the title. But if it doesn't work out, and we can't add picks to trades or miss out on making a bunch of our own, that hurts Mitchell's prime and the rest of Gobert's. Maybe doing that would be worth it, but it is something to consider.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If you let him guard someone, you shouldn't have as big of an issue. For instance, even if there were blowbys, I'd rather give up 7/10 at the rim from Jackson than 7/10 from deep by Mann.

I think we gave up both... and I'm guessing Jackson goes 10/10 from the paint without Rudy there. The hope is that we could have a little more defensive integrity out there if Donovan and Mike both aren't on one leg.

And part of me wants to say no way those guys will shoot that type of percentage again... but the Denver series is still in my brain. Now... that was played in an empty gym in the bubble... so were both instances a fluke? And now I am in the same headspace Quin is where we do nothing and stay the course because well numbers and science and algorithms and ****.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Thank you, this is exactly what I was trying to figure out how to say. I'd only add picks or overpay if it's a Bledsoe/Holiday level deal. I don't think Grant rises to that level either.

Keep in mind, yes we have a good shot at the title. But if it doesn't work out, and we can't add picks to trades or miss out on making a bunch of our own, that hurts Mitchell's prime and the rest of Gobert's. Maybe doing that would be worth it, but it is something to consider.

When we say "add picks" we have exactly one pick we can offer in 2026 or 2027... we can not offer both.

Siakham is fine in theory but even pulling off that type of deal we need to realize that Pascal murdered his team offensively last time they were in the playoffs. His shooting has been so bad. We are a monumental offensive team and giving up a guy like Bogey likely has a real effect on our offense.

 

[campaignist]

To each their own, but it matters almost zero to me. I have no hesitation to trade a 2027 pick because we aren’t going to be competing for a championship at that point. The whole point of draft picks and future assets is to eventually win, but the opportunity to do so is extremely rare.

I will take my 1% increase in winning a title now over my 1% chance of getting a superstar 5 years from now. Losing a first round pick isn’t some kind of death note.

So here's my concern. It's not just the risk of losing an unprotected 2027 lotto pick. It's the inability to include a pick in a trade for the next 4 years, and only having 2 of our own in that time. Late first round picks at that. That means that if you retool by moving Conley, Bogey, or Clarkson, you're going to be getting a downgrade. Maybe they just walk or retire. You're also way less likely to get not just a star, but a rotation player, via the draft. AInge hasn't had a good draft pick since Tatum.

Donovan will turn 30 at the end of the 2024 season, Rudy will turn 34. That is the prime for both of them. It's something to consider.

 

[campaignist]

When we say "add picks" we have exactly one pick we can offer in 2026 or 2027... we can not offer both.

Ahh right, that's what I meant. That's pretty much my real concern actually.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Ahh right, that's what I meant. That's pretty much my real concern actually.

Yeah we are out our pick this year... and in 2024 because of the Favs deal.

I think we are also in the repeater tax next year... its what Tony Jones said in his article today. Which means trading in Joe for a contract that extends beyond this year is likely out.

If anyone is moved I think its JC... I think many will hate the return on the trade as it likely will provide an inferior player that may be a better defensive fit... my guess is we go down in salary this year and next before all is done.