Tre Johnson Will Likely be The 5th Pick
- Thread starter Saint Cy of JFC
- Start date
The harsh reality is that unless you’re drafting elite prospect (e.g. Flagg or Harper level), you probably are getting a JC level player over a Booker. You can get a Booker level player, but you have to accept the fact that it’s extremely unlikely. I don’t think Tre’a chances of being a star player are better than the other prospects in this tier. It would require him to be like all time great level at what he currently does or drastically change the way he scores. Yeah, it seems unlikely that the other guys are able to make the leap to star but I don’t think Tre is much closer just because he shot and scored a lot.
So I don’t see the star potential as much different, but anything beyond the very high outcomes I also don’t love it from Tre. You are indeed getting that Clarkson archetype. That can be valuable in the right situation, but I prefer different archetypes of players. I think guys like Kon and Kas will be winning guys even if they’re not hitting on that 95th percentile outcome. Whereas with Tre winning value could be questioned even on the very high end of outcomes.
I’d probably bet on the other guys scaling up into a star a role as much as I’d bet on Tre maintaining/adding to remain in a star role. And anything outside of those extreme positive scenarios I definitely prefer how the other guys play.
kcgar
Well-Known Member
To be fair, TJ loved Cody so I trust him
Is Tre Key? Yes and no.
I absolutely believe in Tre to be a better shooter than Key. He is one of the best shooting prospects I can remember. You can’t take that away with him and it shouldn’t be an afterthought. The main way these two provide value is putting the ball in the hoop and I think Tre is flat out better.
But what about things besides shooting? I think Tre is very similar to Key in terms of defense and the little things. In fact, I think he’s a worse defensive prospect than Key was coming out Baylor. I have no good reason to think Tre will be even an average defender. He could be better than Key, but that is mostly because Key is one of the worst in the league and chances are that any player is better than one of the worst in the league.
What is another way they are different? Key can actually touch the paint. This manifests itself in Key’s relatively high FTr despite shooting a ton of 3’s. I don’t think Tre is as good at getting to the basket or FT line. The lack of rim pressure also limits Tre’s ability as a playmaker. I don’t think Key is a better passer, but he might be a better playmaker because he can collapse the defense more often.
At the end of the day, I think both will settle at the same spot. They will toe the line between being a 6th man or starter. If everything falls into play and/or their defense comes around, they can look at being starter+.
I absolutely believe in Tre to be a better shooter than Key. He is one of the best shooting prospects I can remember. You can’t take that away with him and it shouldn’t be an afterthought. The main way these two provide value is putting the ball in the hoop and I think Tre is flat out better.
But what about things besides shooting? I think Tre is very similar to Key in terms of defense and the little things. In fact, I think he’s a worse defensive prospect than Key was coming out Baylor. I have no good reason to think Tre will be even an average defender. He could be better than Key, but that is mostly because Key is one of the worst in the league and chances are that any player is better than one of the worst in the league.
What is another way they are different? Key can actually touch the paint. This manifests itself in Key’s relatively high FTr despite shooting a ton of 3’s. I don’t think Tre is as good at getting to the basket or FT line. The lack of rim pressure also limits Tre’s ability as a playmaker. I don’t think Key is a better passer, but he might be a better playmaker because he can collapse the defense more often.
At the end of the day, I think both will settle at the same spot. They will toe the line between being a 6th man or starter. If everything falls into play and/or their defense comes around, they can look at being starter+.
Bawse Dawg
Well-Known Member
Kon will go right after the Jazz pick and be awesome.
Just take Knuppel
Just take Knuppel
Basketball Novice
Well-Known Member
The hope is that Tre is outlier elite at shooting 3s. To a gamebreaking and efficiency breaking level. If Tre is that level of amazing at shooting then driving to the basket only needs to be good enough to be the counter to the crazy 3 point shooting.
He truly did carry the Texas offense on his back and somehow made it to the tournament. He scored 39 points on 14-28 in a game and lost. This might be a real situation where the team piled way too much on a Freshmen and he still somewhat met expectations. Compare that to a Rutgers team that had 2 Top 3 picks in Harper and Ace and disappointing.
I have a feeling that adding Tre Johnson to a Will Hardy offense could make him ridiculously good.
doesn't Chet have a brother that we can pick? or maybe Cason Wallace's brother?
I don’t disagree that this is the hope, but right off the bat you’re asking for an extreme outlier and game breaking player. I don’t see it as a good thing that a player needs to be one of a kind to make it work. Maybe Tre is that guy that completely breaks the mold, many of the elite guys are, but it’s not exactly unique to say that in extreme cases a prospect could be very good.
So, can you give an example of that type of player who is successful? Because I went through all 3-point volume shooters for this season and could find only two like that: Malik Beasley and Buddy Hield. All the rest are either good defenders, good playmakers or can easily penetrate and finish in the paint.