If a tree falls in the woods?
Is that Ron Paul's retarded illegitimate child or am I thinking of Darrell Castle?
Trump/Hillary Debate
- Thread starter The Midnight
- Start date
If a tree falls in the woods?
Is that Ron Paul's retarded illegitimate child or am I thinking of Darrell Castle?
He's somebody's retarded illegitimate child. He probably has three parents, none of whom will claim him.
So... when's the next debate?
♪alt13
Well-Known Member
Who cares?
Ha!
Oct 9, unless you count the VP debate on Oct 4. So I guess we can table all the hostility in here for a few days?
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Sent from my HTC6535LVW using JazzFanz mobile app
b_line
Well-Known Member
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now
538 has Hillary trending up. I think they are pretty respectable. Granted, they did blow the trump win projection in the primaries, and it made them rethink their entire model for projections. Anyway, the day of the debate, it was like 54% that Hillary would win, now its 63% in their polls only forecast.
538 has Hillary trending up. I think they are pretty respectable. Granted, they did blow the trump win projection in the primaries, and it made them rethink their entire model for projections. Anyway, the day of the debate, it was like 54% that Hillary would win, now its 63% in their polls only forecast.
b_line
Well-Known Member
By the way, their polls only forecast takes an average of all the polls around the country, and weights some more in depth polls more heavily, and some less heavily. Their methodology seems pretty good. They also have a polls+ forecast that looks at polls plus historical data. I think that is where they blew it in the primaries, because Trump was such an outlier historically speaking that they thought there was no way he could win, so they kind of ignored the polls, and relied on historical data too much. Now they have the default on their site as the polls only forecast.
Strange,.. it's 72.4% now when I click on that link.
Jonah
Well-Known Member
Not that strange, it gets updated as new polls come in, sometimes three or four times daily.
b_line
Well-Known Member
That's awesome. The highest I've seen it was at like 92% in July or August. I really hope it keeps going up for Clinton. Trump would be an unmitigated disaster.
Please, please, please keep feeding my inner beast. The panic is what I love about presidential election season. Hillary will be status quo, which is completely fine by me. Trump will be status quo with a chance of meatballs. Also fine by me. But unmitigated disaster? hahahahahaha