I actually agree with everything you touched on, but the problem is that BYU fans have been telling us Utah fans for years that they don't rebuild down in Happy Valley, they simply reload. Problem is, you can't have it both ways. If this BYU program is where most Cougar fans say it is, they should be able to handle Jake Locker and Washington. Period.
I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek when I said I'm certainly picking BYU to win. In reality, I don't know enough about Washington to make much of an educated guess on the issue. However, if Washington leaves Provo with a win, I think it has more to do with BYU being in store for a mediocre season than it does Washington being great.
With a Washington loss and road games remaining @Florida State, TCU, and Utah, that would put BYU in a pretty daunting hole to begin the season.