Personally, I think they key to the Spurs getting did open threes against us consistently, is the fact that we double-team Duncan nearly very time he is in the post. Go back and watch the games. Even when Favors guards him, a winger usually comes to his aid, leaving their several long-range specialists wide open.
Keys to the series:
1) Favors or Al being able to single-handedly lockdown Duncan.
2) Favors being able to seriously damage their pick-and-roll game
Now, some of you might laugh at the thought of Al Jefferson locking a center from the d-league, let alone one of/if not the greatest PF of all time. However, Al Jefferson was ranked 2nd (I think) in the NBA last season, in terms of point-percentage that opposing 4/5s achieved, when Al was defending them. I don't know if this trend has reversed this season, but what I do know is that Al isn't half bad at defending other 5s one on one. Keeping Al on Duncan means that we can keep Favors out of foul trouble, and he can do an absolutely stellar job of trying to stop Parker from running the P&R. If we can weaken their pick and roll game, and not let Duncan pass to wide open players after doubling him, we essentially take away two of their best strengths. We hustle more, we have a good defender in Hayward, a scrappy defender in Carroll, and a player like Sap that can defend in the passing lanes while Favors works on the P&Rs. I honestly don't see the need to double one of the best passing bigs in the game, especially when his scoring output has seriously waned over the years. Just leave Al on him, and let Duncan earn their points the hard way. It all comes down to Favors and Al, defensively. Offensively, hopefully Al can continue his string of good games against Duncan The Spurs-posters on SpursTalk also mention consistently about how Devin Harris always "lights up" Tony Parker. Hmm. We will have to see how this plays out. I for one am definitely really excited for our team, even though we will probably get our asses handed to us.
Honestly, if we can manage just one of keys, I predict us winning one game, at most 2. If we do both, we are looking at a very competitive series.