From what I am reading the polls this time around have been based on 2008 turnout and that is not acutally the case. If that is true the Obama has a very real chance of losing this.
What Will The Fall Out Be?
- Thread starter Stoked
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From what I am reading the polls this time around have been based on 2008 turnout and that is not acutally the case. If that is true the Obama has a very real chance of losing this.
mellow
Well-Known Member
This morning NBC (or another talking head) was laying out scenarios where the election came down to Ohio or Florida and the margin of victory would be less than the number of outstanding ballots (absintee and provisional ballots). They suggested that at that point both parties would begin immediate legal actions to block certain ballots from being counted. And that the entire process would be a series of suits/complaints and appeals.
They said in a doomsday scenario in Ohio it could take up to 30 days to determine a winner, most of that time would be waiting for lawsuits.
They said in a doomsday scenario in Ohio it could take up to 30 days to determine a winner, most of that time would be waiting for lawsuits.
Gyp Rosetti
Banned
Ugh...so we're gonna have a close election that involves lawsuits that aren't resolved up until early December, at which point Romney will win, and our worst enemies will flip their **** that a multi-wived Mormon is our next President, and WW3 or the end of the world begins a couple weeks later. Hence, 12/21/12. **** us.
Link? Although I guess we'll know in a few hours anyway.
In any event, my present understanding is that different polling firms are using different turnout models that make different assumptions. This part of the reason poll averaging is a thing to begin with and part of the reason that different polling firms have persistent house effects that can be measured and corrected for. In any event, if it is the case that polling firms use the last general election turn-out model every new election then we should have enough election data going back to 1968 to understand how that effects projections and correct for it using regression analysis.
TL;DR: I think this is grasping at straws.
You'll be crying in the bathroom?
Oh please. Will you be out burning tires if Obama loses?
Honestly I think the fallout will be a big meh for the most part. I can see possible demonstrations in a few majority black areas if it's close (it would have to be close for Romney to win) and there's any hint of funny business in the vote counting.
Duck Rodgers
Well-Known Member
If Romney loses, all the white horses around the world will be raptured.
If Obama loses, his army of e-thugs that have taken to twitter in mass the past month or so threatning to kill Romney if he wins won't get breast fed by their upset mothers for the next week and will have hit the streets to find food instead.
If Obama loses, his army of e-thugs that have taken to twitter in mass the past month or so threatning to kill Romney if he wins won't get breast fed by their upset mothers for the next week and will have hit the streets to find food instead.
I'll be crying, drunk, and wondering the streets at 7am with a copy of the communist manifesto in back pocket.
Gyp Rosetti
Banned
I almost held off on my re-fi smply because I was very confident that Obama would win and think **** will tank another quarter point or so over the next month or so.
So in other words, nothing will have changed.