Which direction do you want the team to go the rest of the season?

[fishonjazz]

Your OKC love affair is absolutely mystifying. They're 22-23. Excuse me if I don't bow down to them yet.

Also, SGA is not a superstar and Giddey is not close to being a 2nd banana for a contender.

I take Lauri over SGA.

 

[fishonjazz]

Some people act like a rookie takes years to contribute. Most of the time these rookie are contributing immediately and within a couple years are having a massive impact.

Good post. I agree.
Pretty cool that we have hella draft picks and 2 current rookies who already are contributing then right?

 

[Ron Mexico]

The challenge here is we have to not only replace the aging guys or guys that won't be here, but get a significant upgrade in talent.

The second part of this challenge is it would be much easier to do if we got lucky in the lotto... but the time to tank was in the offseason. We didn't cut deep enough... I said it then and it turns out to be more true because Lauri and Walker are both growing at a bonkers rate. We'd have to be lucky enough to find a good value trade for Beasley/Vando that returned only picks and not good players... then we'd likely have to do a dubious trade where we sell low on Mike and KO that is an obvious tank trade... because I just don't see those guys having a ton of "first round pick" type value. Even then I am not sure we get where we need to without some nefarious injury management.

Another dance we are doing here is if we drop out it opens up an opportunity for Minny. We can't shut the door on them completely but if we make the actual playoffs by winning the play in... it is like 50% more likely they missed the playoffs... okay the maths there is weird and its not a strict either/or scenario.

This isn't ideal... its not what I would have done... but I'm just accepting it as reality.

Having a ton of future picks and a lot of them unprotected makes it pretty easy to upgrade aging guys. 2 or 3 1sts can get you a really good young player. We have enough to trade for 2 stars if we wanted to go that route as well. A higher pick for us this year could be great but it also probably makes the minny pick better. Plus that means our players are worse and/or worth less in future trades. I would rather cheer for a cool story of Jazz making some noise and Minny giving us a lottery pick. But 2 lottery picks this year that are hits could really set us up amazing for the future.

 

[fishonjazz]

Duly amended to your betterment, good sir.

LOL

 

[LogGrad98]

The question once again though is can we build a team to compete with the Pelicans, Griz and Thunder. They also have 1st team all nba caliber players in SGA, Zion and Ja. The pels and griz have established 2nd and 3rd stars as well with Ingram and CJ for the pels and JJ and Bane for the griz. The thunder don't have that yet but Giddy is right there and Chet may be that 3rd guy but I really love Jalen Williams. Then you start looking at the role players the pelicans and griz have and you can't help but get jealous

Pelicans-
Herb Jones
Trey Murphy
Jonas
Dyson Daniels
Larry Nance
Naji Marshall
Jose Alvarado
Jaxon Hayes

Griz-
Adams
Tyus Jones
Dillon Brooks
Aldama
Konchar
Zaire Williams
Brandon Clarke
David Roddy
Laravia

The depth on those 2 teams is crazy and almost every player is under 30. Over the next few years salary decisions will have to be made for the griz with Brooks being a free agent this offseason and Tyus Jones the next but they have the depth to deal with that. The thunder don't have that established depth yet but they have the hardest piece to find which is a superstar and Giddey looks like a pretty good number 2. They do have some guys that project as elite role players in Dort and Jalen Williams as well as a few other solid role players in Poku and Kenrich Williams and some really talented youngsters in Dieng and Tre Mann. This offseason I would expect the thunder to start putting their capspace to working adding some quality depth.

These teams are also set up from good to great when it comes to future picks

Griz- They own all of their own future picks and the warriors pick starting in 2024 with limited protections.

Pelicans- Own all of their own future picks.
2023- swap right with the lakers
2024- swap right with bucks, own lakers 1st but can defer to 2025 if they want
2025- Get bucks pick if in top 4, lakers pick if they choose to defer pick from prior year
2026- swap right with bucks
2027- bucks 1st unprotected

Thunder- Own all of their future picks
2023- swap right with clippers
2024- Rockets pick if in 5-30 range, Jazz pick 11-30 range, clippers 1st unprotected
2025- They have a ton of crazy swap rights with multiple teams, Jazz pick 11-30 if no surrendered the year before, Heat pick 15-30, Sixers pick 7-30
2026- Clipper pick unprotected, Rockets pick 5-30, Utah 9-30 if not already settled, Miami unprotected if no already settled, Philly pick 5-30 if not already settled
2027- Philly pick 5-30 if not already settled, Nugs pick 6-30
2028- Nugs pick 6-30 if not already settled
2029- Nugs pick 6-30 if not already settled

If I'm Ainge I am trying to figure how to compete with these 3 teams moving forward and it is not easy. Even this year we talk about getting a lottery pick but the thunder and pelicans may end up with a better lottery pick than us from the clippers and lakers.

They don't have Ainge...so...yeah.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I would love to see a starting lineup of Conley, JC, Ochai, Markennan, and Kessler. Probably my favorite lineup right now. Ochai would probably foul out every game though.

I think Ochai is not a great defender at this point but I think he needs reps. He is a good shooter and has started to do other things as a cutter or off the catch and go. I just think if it looks awesome with a Basic Bitch 3 and D guy then you can kinda build that direction to upgrading at SF or PG and try for a more dynamic option.

My only worry is he is just okayish and then you draft or acquire a better option and move him to the bench and its viewed as a demotion. Its not a huge concern and I would guess he'd take it well. All reports on him through college were he's a worker and everyone loves him. If we went that route and ended up out of the playoffs with a lotto pick great... if we won the play in and made the playoffs... great. If we just rely on vets a ton and win the play in then its a hollow victory to me.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Having a ton of future picks and a lot of them unprotected makes it pretty easy to upgrade aging guys. 2 or 3 1sts can get you a really good young player. We have enough to trade for 2 stars if we wanted to go that route as well. A higher pick for us this year could be great but it also probably makes the minny pick better. Plus that means our players are worse and/or worth less in future trades. I would rather cheer for a cool story of Jazz making some noise and Minny giving us a lottery pick. But 2 lottery picks this year that are hits could really set us up amazing for the future.

Only caveat is I don't think it becomes easy to get a good young player even with the picks. Murray and Don changed this offseason but its because they are flight risks. Then sometimes the guys that do become available aren't amazing fits, so its still kinda tricky. When those picks hit its such a huge boost to the franchise... wherever we draft this year we just need to hit... that's all it comes down to with me. This year's draft will be a massive determining factor in the ceiling of the Lauri/Walker rebuild. Hit on a pick and then you can do the finishing move where you acquire an aging vet like CP or a disgruntled star or take advantage of the team that rebuilds.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

I think Ochai is not a great defender at this point but I think he needs reps. He is a good shooter and has started to do other things as a cutter or off the catch and go. I just think if it looks awesome with a Basic Bitch 3 and D guy then you can kinda build that direction to upgrading at SF or PG and try for a more dynamic option.

My only worry is he is just okayish and then you draft or acquire a better option and move him to the bench and its viewed as a demotion. Its not a huge concern and I would guess he'd take it well. All reports on him through college were he's a worker and everyone loves him. If we went that route and ended up out of the playoffs with a lotto pick great... if we won the play in and made the playoffs... great. If we just rely on vets a ton and win the play in then its a hollow victory to me.

It almost feels like Ochai spent too many years playing college ball. He probably has a lot of defensive bad habits that are hard to shake now that his opponents are much better, bigger, stronger and quicker. Hardy even hinted as much in some interview. Despite his athleticism and length, he plays really small - probably because he didn't really need to be playing big at Kansas. Being 6'5'' was enough on the wing.

Still, I've come around on this kid and I'm eating my crow. He seems to be a willing learner and has all the physical tools to be an effective wing in this league.

 

[sip]

Good post. I agree.
Pretty cool that we have hella draft picks and 2 current rookies who already are contributing then right?

Unfortunately the griz and pelicans just have way more young pieces that are already in place. I think we would all agree that if 2 of our picks next year turned into Herb Jones, Trey Murphy or Santi Aldama caliber of players we would be happy as hell.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I also think we learned a controlled rebuild can be the best patient path. Don't do what Minny did... put a bunch of cakes in the oven and bake (sorry).

 

[hgb]

Yeah, but most teams have an idea about what the range probably will be. Unless it's 2029 picks (total crapshoot then), but most picks are traded only a year or two out. At that point the teams have at least some idea if the picks they're trading are gonna be in the lottery, mid-draft or high 20s.

I don't know, I think the majority of the teams that traded away those picks were feeling pretty good about making the playoffs, but I didn't go through the trades, so I don't know.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It almost feels like Ochai spent too many years playing college ball. He probably has a lot of defensive bad habits that are hard to shake now that his opponents are much better, bigger, stronger and quicker. Hardy even hinted as much in some interview. Despite his athleticism and length, he plays really small - probably because he didn't really need to be playing big at Kansas. Being 6'5'' was enough on the wing.

Still, I've come around on this kid and I'm eating my crow. He seems to be a willing learner and has all the physical tools to be an effective wing in this league.

And I just don't know if you learn the stuff he needs to in practice or workouts... its kinda trial and error in games. It'd be nice to have like an Iggy or washed vet mentor that could work with him on defense and what he can get away with.

He also just makes some young player mistakes like ducking under a screen on Norman Powell when he's going nuclear... but he at least has the ability to stay in front of guys which is a big improvement over most our guards.

 

[fishonjazz]

I think Ochai is not a great defender at this point but I think he needs reps. He is a good shooter and has started to do other things as a cutter or off the catch and go. I just think if it looks awesome with a Basic Bitch 3 and D guy then you can kinda build that direction to upgrading at SF or PG and try for a more dynamic option.

My only worry is he is just okayish and then you draft or acquire a better option and move him to the bench and its viewed as a demotion. Its not a huge concern and I would guess he'd take it well. All reports on him through college were he's a worker and everyone loves him. If we went that route and ended up out of the playoffs with a lotto pick great... if we won the play in and made the playoffs... great. If we just rely on vets a ton and win the play in then its a hollow victory to me.

Agreed. Especially with the last sentence. I have been on the fence about tanking or trying to win more than just about anyone. I simply want to ride the younger guys (so does hearskys mom). Dont care much if we win or lose.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't know, I think the majority of the teams that traded away those picks were feeling pretty good about making the playoffs, but I didn't go through the trades, so I don't know.

Teams stopped trading unprotected picks for a while because of Brooklyn and other disasters. They just didn't do it. They handed them out like candy this last offseason cuz mfers forgot. It will tighten up over the next 2-3 years as teams remember how stupid it is. Those picks will gain in value as the nba market on picks starts to swing back the other way again.

 

[sip]

They don't have Ainge...so...yeah.

You are putting way too much trust in Ainge. I like the guy but he has never found a star player outside of a top 10 pick. He is great at acquiring draft assets but he isn't anything special at actually putting them to work outside of the top 5. You can also make a strong case that Presti is every bit the wizard that Ainge is when it comes to acquiring draft assets while the griz and pelicans gm's have been insane at identifying draft talent over these last few years.

 

[fishonjazz]

And I just don't know if you learn the stuff he needs to in practice or workouts... its kinda trial and error in games. It'd be nice to have like an Iggy or washed vet mentor that could work with him on defense and what he can get away with.

He also just makes some young player mistakes like ducking under a screen on Norman Powell when he's going nuclear... but he at least has the ability to stay in front of guys which is a big improvement over most our guards.

As for your second sentence there. One pet peeve i have is pointing out young guys making young guy mistakes and then watching Jordan Clarkson do literally the exact same thing last night when Powell got a screen while he was on fire from outside. Those aren't really young guy mistakes. They are mistakes. I watch conley make bad young guy mistakes too. (we talked about a couple in last nights game)

 

[hgb]

Teams stopped trading unprotected picks for a while because of Brooklyn and other disasters. They just didn't do it. They handed them out like candy this last offseason cuz mfers forgot. It will tighten up over the next 2-3 years as teams remember how stupid it is. Those picks will gain in value as the nba market on picks starts to swing back the other way again.

There's real downside to trading protected picks too, though. It means you quite often will be very limited in picks you can trade away. Since we have a bunch of other picks now, we should be good, but without those, we couldn't trade a pick until '28 IIRC.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

As for your second sentence there. One pet peeve i have is pointing out young guys making young guy mistakes and then watching Jordan Clarkson do literally the exact same thing last night when Powell got a screen while he was on fire from outside. Those aren't really young guy mistakes. They are mistakes. I watch conley make bad young guy mistakes too. (we talked about a couple in last nights game)

JC has a young soul... especially on defense.

 

[str8line]

Trade JC for sure while he's hot. He has value and doesn't fit our timeline.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Agreed. Especially with the last sentence. I have been on the fence about tanking or trying to win more than just about anyone. I simply want to ride the younger guys (so does hearskys mom). Dont care much if we win or lose.

This caught me off guard and literally made me LOL.