I have no doubt that Biden will be the 46th president. At the same time, this past weekend the founder of the Oath Keepers, the largest right wing militia group, numbering in the tens of thousands, stated his group would not recognize Biden as president. I think what we need to see is how Trump is going to behave. I think we should fully expect him to always claim the election was rigged, and his second term was stolen. That being the case, we should expect to see continued clashes between Trump and Biden supporters. After the fact. Biden as president, but no BLM protests will go unchallenged by right wing militia, and no pro-Trump demonstration will go unchallenged by self identified anti-fascists.
For these reasons, I think option 4 will be with us well into Biden’s term. Depends on how disruptive Trump chooses to be, I think...