Woj: Don to the Cavs for Markkanen, Agbaji, Sexton, three unprotected 1sts, two swaps, and a partridge in a pear tree.

[Elizah Huge]

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1570215524356988928

Comes out to 4/70.95M which is just insanely great value. His contract is going to age extremely well.

 

[HeatCheck]

I like that Sexton contract. He's definitely an asset on that deal. He can be kept as a starter or a 6th man down the road depending on his development and who they add thru the draft/ trades. Lauri is on a similar type deal only a year shorter.

FWIW I read a headline in the Athletic, the article is blocked by a paywall, but it basically said the Cavs have 3 years to change his mind about staying in Cleveland long term. Very interesting considering the Jazz basically control the Cavs draft for the rest of this decade.

 

[YoungJefe]

I like that Sexton contract. He's definitely an asset on that deal. He can be kept as a starter or a 6th man down the road depending on his development and who they add thru the draft/ trades. Lauri is on a similar type deal only a year shorter.

FWIW I read a headline in the Athletic, the article is blocked by a paywall, but it basically said the Cavs have 3 years to change his mind about staying in Cleveland long term. Very interesting considering the Jazz basically control the Cavs draft for the rest of this decade.

Once LeBron resigned with the Lakers they realized they had to make a big splash

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I don't think Mitchell leaving in a couple of years really impacts our picks that much. I think Mitchell will affect their ceiling, but their floor will be tied to Mobley. If Mobely is healthy, I think they continue to be a playoff team.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I don't think Mitchell leaving in a couple of years really impacts our picks that much. I think Mitchell will affect their ceiling, but their floor will be tied to Mobley. If Mobely is healthy, I think they continue to be a playoff team.

He might turn increasingly into the conniving little **** we witnessed the last two years which would probably have a bigger impact.

But yes, the ceiling/floor descriptions are apt. As an extension of that, I’m not convinced that Mitchell actually wins you a ton of games which is another reason the clock was ticking on getting him the hell out of here; if it’s seen he’s actually just a glorified chucker then his value drops significantly IMO.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't think Mitchell leaving in a couple of years really impacts our picks that much. I think Mitchell will affect their ceiling, but their floor will be tied to Mobley. If Mobely is healthy, I think they continue to be a playoff team.

I think Mobley and Garland both have to be healthy but agree overall. Having all three would make it pretty hard to be terrible... he won't be there is 3 years though.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I think Mobley and Garland both have to be healthy but agree overall. Having all three would make it pretty hard to be terrible... he won't be there is 3 years though.

The odds on Garland and Mobley both being on the team in 2027-2029 has to be fairly low. It sounds great in theory though.

 

[TheGoldStandard]

He might turn increasingly into the conniving little **** we witnessed the last two years which would probably have a bigger impact.

But yes, the ceiling/floor descriptions are apt. As an extension of that, I’m not convinced that Mitchell actually wins you a ton of games which is another reason the clock was ticking on getting him the hell out of here; if it’s seen he’s actually just a glorified chucker then his value drops significantly IMO.

Even without that he is going to demand the ball more, taking it out of Mobley's hands, which may stifle his progress. There was lots of talk before the trade about the Cavs changing the offense to run through Evan. I don't see that happening now.

The Cavs feel like they still are too young to make the jump. They are at least 2 seasons away. I think Mitchell's fit will actually hurt their progress.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The odds on Garland and Mobley both being on the team in 2027-2029 has to be fairly low. It sounds great in theory though.

Garland already locked up for what would feed into the 25/27 draft... might have asked out by then but who knows... and that is the point... a lot can happen.

I think Cavs end up moving Don next summer for Barrett and a couple picks... or to Miami for Herro and stuff.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Garland already locked up for what would feed into the 25/27 draft... might have asked out by then but who knows... and that is the point... a lot can happen.

I think Cavs end up moving Don next summer for Barrett and a couple picks... or to Miami for Herro and stuff.

That’s what I’m saying he could easily ask out by then or they decide to recoup some picks when they are a middling team in the East.

 

[Elizah Huge]

A few years ago I don’t think a single person predicted we’d be in the spot we are now and that is exactly why anything can happen.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Garland is an UFA right before the 2028 season when we own their pick swap.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I think Mobley and Garland both have to be healthy but agree overall. Having all three would make it pretty hard to be terrible... he won't be there is 3 years though.

It's also just generally hard to be terrible if there is absolutely no incentive to be bad.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

A few years ago I don’t think a single person predicted we’d be in the spot we are now and that is exactly why anything can happen.

Ok, but there is one freaking huge massive difference:

Utah owns their picks so it makes sense for them to be bad. A team that does not own their picks will not have the incentive to blow things up. The position Utah is currently in was 100% a choice.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Ok, but there is one freaking huge massive difference:

Utah owns their picks so it makes sense for them to be bad. A team that does not own their picks will not have the incentive to blow things up. The position Utah is currently in was 100% a choice.

I just said anything can happen which is true. People are acting like Garland/Mobley will lead them to 7 straight conference finals and will be together until 2035.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It's also just generally hard to be terrible if there is absolutely no incentive to be bad.

Yes but I could see some of these picks still hitting the lotto. With new odds you have an okayish chance at landing top 4... agree with your point though... they won't join the tank race. But you could hit like OKC and NOP did this year on the Lakers and Clips. Houston is also in danger of giving up some good picks if they don't get decent soon. They owe 24 and 26 to OKC unless they land top 4.

Sometimes life comes at you fast.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Yes but I could see some of these picks still hitting the lotto. With new odds you have an okayish chance at landing top 4... agree with your point though... they won't join the tank race. But you could hit like OKC and NOP did this year on the Lakers and Clips. Houston is also in danger of giving up some good picks if they don't get decent soon. They owe 24 and 26 to OKC unless they land top 4.

Sometimes life comes at you fast.

The most optimistic thing I can say is that the East is really good right now so maybe they can have an unlucky year where they get pushed out.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The most optimistic thing I can say is that the East is really good right now so maybe they can have an unlucky year where they get pushed out.

I don't think teams have fully calibrated the risk of the play in tournament and the potential reward of the lotto odds changing. Only the top 6 teams in each conference being in the playoffs leaves like a 25%-33% chance that a team that should have made the playoffs ends up in the lotto. Happened to Clips last year... Warriors the year before. Its only like a 2.5%-9% chance it jumps to top 4... but it will happen at some point.

While they may not tank... they might shut it down like the Lakers did last year. They end up with some injuries and nothing to play for so they land 7/8 which gives you a 25-30% chance.

It is more likely those picks fall between 18-30 than we get a top 4 pick though. Teams that aren't confident that they will be good don't give up far out unprotected picks though... so you just have to bet that bad **** will happen.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I don't think teams have fully calibrated the risk of the play in tournament and the potential reward of the lotto odds changing. Only the top 6 teams in each conference being in the playoffs leaves like a 25%-33% chance that a team that should have made the playoffs ends up in the lotto. Happened to Clips last year... Warriors the year before. Its only like a 2.5%-9% chance it jumps to top 4... but it will happen at some point.

While they may not tank... they might shut it down like the Lakers did last year. They end up with some injuries and nothing to play for so they land 7/8 which gives you a 25-30% chance.

It is more likely those picks fall between 18-30 than we get a top 4 pick though. Teams that aren't confident that they will be good don't give up far out unprotected picks though... so you just have to bet that bad **** will happen.

Yeah, sure, but we are talking about if we get lucky we might get the 12th pick.

Which would be great.

But I'm still team trade them as soon as you get a more clear sense of the team's direction.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah, sure, but we are talking about if we get lucky we might get the 12th pick.

Which would be great.

But I'm still team trade them as soon as you get a more clear sense of the team's direction.

You can also do what NO did with the Milwaukee pick they traded… trade the pick but add top 4 protection… so if it’s hits big you still keep some upside.

The best value may be as a trade asset but I’d be opportunistic rather than shopping the picks real hard.