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Kevin Pelton Thinks George Hill Will Get $20 Million in FA

BTP said:
Then name like 3-4 candidates that you can think of, so your claim gains a little bit of substance
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Dwill and patty mills apparently...
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
The point is he's eligible for an extension and can take 10M this year and a discount on the backend and never hit FA. Even if we paid 15% too much we'd still be okay and have much less uncertainty.

We are trying to retain Hayward too. Lose Hayward and all the plan Bs suck. If we have Hill already signed and have only one free agent to negotiate with I'd feel much better. Let Hill go out to bid while you are negotiating with Hayward would be a mistake.

I'm thrilled with Dante but he's got a few years to go in his developing a great feel for the game. Having Hill here helps that... does not hurt that.
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Why is he taking a discount?
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Dwill and patty mills apparently...
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Those would be my top choices. There other backups out there who are also OK, but probably not worth much. I think rolling with Mack/Neto as a backup to Exum is pretty OK also and nothing that would make us lose games. Best case would be Burks can be our backup PG/SG and play big.

The main point is that Exum replaces much of what we would lose from Hill and Burks replaces much of (and more) what we would lose from Exum not being on the bench.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Why is he taking a discount?
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If we gave him 10 m on the front end of the contract this year he could get the equivalent of 3/60 M but we only take 3/50 on the cap. Less of a discount per se but front loaded. Also the only way we get a true discount is if he doesn't hit the open market. I bet SA would offer him 20 PER or damn close to it.

If don't use that cap space this year it disappears.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
If we gave him 10 m on the front end of the contract this year he could get the equivalent of 3/60 M but we only take 3/50 on the cap. Less of a discount per se but front loaded. Also the only way we get a true discount is if he doesn't hit the open market. I bet SA would offer him 20 PER or damn close to it.

If don't use that cap space this year it disappears.
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I still don't see why he or his agent does that. Makes more sense financially to hit the market if he cares about maximizing his value, which 90% of nba players do.

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Handlogten's Heros said:
If we gave him 10 m on the front end of the contract this year he could get the equivalent of 3/60 M but we only take 3/50 on the cap. Less of a discount per se but front loaded. Also the only way we get a true discount is if he doesn't hit the open market. I bet SA would offer him 20 PER or damn close to it.

If don't use that cap space this year it disappears.
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SA can't afford that. Gasol will probably opt in at 16m, he's averaging 10/7 this year. There are other teams that would do 20m though (NY?)
 
Jazz4ever said:
SA can't afford that. Gasol will probably opt in at 16m, he's averaging 10/7 this year. There are other teams that would do 20m though (NY?)
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They could find the space... send Parker or gasol somewhere. There will be teams that can't use their space.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I still don't see why he or his agent does that. Makes more sense financially to hit the market if he cares about maximizing his value, which 90% of nba players do.

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That's probably the biggest snag. If you thought you could get 4/80 M and were willing to go to philly to get it then it's a no. 3/60 is near top end of what I think a good team should offer. He'd have an additional year outside the 4 year deal but would not recoup the additional 20 M.

If I was him I'd take the 3/60 though. So much risk in their profession.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Those would be my top choices. There other backups out there who are also OK, but probably not worth much. I think rolling with Mack/Neto as a backup to Exum is pretty OK also and nothing that would make us lose games. Best case would be Burks can be our backup PG/SG and play big.

The main point is that Exum replaces much of what we would lose from Hill and Burks replaces much of (and more) what we would lose from Exum not being on the bench.
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Welcome to fighting for the 8th seed.

At some point, you need players who are going to WIN games. For Utah, that hasn't been Gobert, Favors or Exum, It has occasionally been Hayward. Hood largely failed in those chances last year, but is still young and developing. Hill HAS been that player this year. Without him as the starter and closer, Utah likely loses to SA, Lakers and NY. All those games Hill took over down the stretch. With Exum, Mack, etc., you just have to hope no one else has a bad game, because they can't compensate. Sure, Utah is 3-1 without Hill. But you have to look at the competition. The 3 wins were against terrible teams. The 1 loss was caused by the inability to close out the game. All our players wilted down the stretch...AGAIN! Just like last year. Sure could have used a PG with the ability to make plays for himself an others.
 
Stifle Tower said:
Welcome to fighting for the 8th seed.

At some point, you need players who are going to WIN games. For Utah, that hasn't been Gobert, Favors or Exum, It has occasionally been Hayward. Hood largely failed in those chances last year, but is still young and developing. Hill HAS been that player this year. Without him as the starter and closer, Utah likely loses to SA, Lakers and NY. All those games Hill took over down the stretch. With Exum, Mack, etc., you just have to hope no one else has a bad game, because they can't compensate. Sure, Utah is 3-1 without Hill. But you have to look at the competition. The 3 wins were against terrible teams. The 1 loss was caused by the inability to close out the game. All our players wilted down the stretch...AGAIN! Just like last year. Sure could have used a PG with the ability to make plays for himself an others.
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Those guys were young, they are better this year, with or without Hill. They will be better next year, with or without Hill.

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Saint Cy of JFC said:
Those guys were young, they are better this year, with or without Hill. They will be better next year, with or without Hill.

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If hill would accept a 3/60 with 10 M coming this year would you do it? Direct question no hypotheticals.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I would have to sit down and really look at cap situation before answering with 100% certainty. I'd lean towards no though.

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It's no. it'd need to be a 2 year deal and with Hill's current leverage and age he'll probably be looking for 4 or 2+1 or 3+1 Player option.

Hill 20MM
Burks 10MM
Exum 10+MM
Hayward 26MM
Favors ~18MM
Hood ~24MM
Gobert 26MM

Cant all be on the books in 2018-2019 they'll hemorrhage $$$
 
It'd be cool if they could somehow snowball the asset.. like Hill+Favors for DeMarcus Cousins..

Cousins is obviously at wits end with the Kings..

I imagine the FO wouldn't want him here, but between Rudy and Hayward I think he'd fall in line. I could see him getting real focused for a fresh start and playoff push, Rudy being here to have his back would go a very long way IMO.. His contract is ridiculously cheap for next year..

Hayward-Cousins-Gobert is an extremely formidable frontline... I really think its such a match that Cousins could take a discount to keep it rolling..
 
PG_AB said:
It's no. it'd need to be a 2 year deal and with Hill's current leverage and age he'll probably be looking for 4 or 2+1 or 3+1 Player option.

Hill 20MM
Burks 10MM
Exum 10+MM
Hayward 26MM
Favors ~18MM
Hood ~24MM
Gobert 26MM

Cant all be on the books in 2018-2019 they'll hemorrhage $$$
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We can trade players before then. Hill staying means Alec is out. Under the scenario I gave hills salary that year would be 15ish.

Even if we got to 2018-19 and needed dump salary we could absolutely move Hills contract... likely pick up assets while we did it.

Another thing that needs to be said is that Burks contract is only great if he plays and finds a role. He may not be able to do that this year on this team... at which point we are half way through that cheap contract.im a fan of his work but am skeptical it comes together for him any time soon and starting next year his cheap contract may cost us someone who came in and was immediately effective/great... and then it becomes a problem.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
We can trade players before then. Hill staying means Alec is out. Under the scenario I gave hills salary that year would be 15ish.

Even if we got to 2018-19 and needed dump salary we could absolutely move Hills contract... likely pick up assets while we did it.

Another thing that needs to be said is that Burks contract is only great if he plays and finds a role. He may not be able to do that this year on this team... at which point we are half way through that cheap contract.im a fan of his work but am skeptical it comes together for him any time soon and starting next year his cheap contract may cost us someone who came in and was immediately effective/great... and then it becomes a problem.
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I really want to see the #'s. I don't think it adds up. Burks is inconsequential, they're still way over the highest tax bracket
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
You can read the rest of the thread where I've already discussed this.
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You named 2. I asked for more.
I don't think the 2 mentioned are even in the same stratosphere as Hill. Both players don't play the defense that Hill provides. Hill is a better shooter than both. I think it's super important to have good wing defender, they allow Rudy to protect the rim. If he has to help on drives too much preemptively, a lot of slasher can find angles that Rudy can't cover and hand bigs easy buckets.
Deron Williams even in a complementary role is still a massive **** from what I'm hearing.

Will be interesting to see how the team evaluates the situation. But I think they value draftpicks in general that highly, that they'll try to get creative if the price is high.

I also think it's a good idea to trade Burks at this point, once he's reestablished some trade value until next summer. He's another ball dominant guy who'll slow Exum down. His trademark drives also don't fit the system.
He may finish better around the rim than Hood and Hayward, but the way he makes plays for others is usually off his own aggression. Hood and Hayward are really good at cancelling their drives, keeping the ball live or finding a good exit pass.
Does Burks really have a good contract when he's out that often? I'd rather bet on Exum developing further and closing the gap that Burks leaves.
Having 4 major rotation players on the wing is fine. Round it out with another project and two min contract vets, once Joe expires.
For the bigs, we got Rudy, Derrick and Trey. Withey right now is the complementary guy for the leftover minutes. Withey can probably be replaced and if he's getting more expensive, he probably should be. The last key rotation player would be a 3/4, who can play smallball at least in limited minutes and against less talented backups. I like what Joe Johnson offers here. He may extend for 2018 for cheap if next year goes really well.
 
PG_AB said:
It'd be cool if they could somehow snowball the asset.. like Hill+Favors for DeMarcus Cousins..

Cousins is obviously at wits end with the Kings..

I imagine the FO wouldn't want him here, but between Rudy and Hayward I think he'd fall in line. I could see him getting real focused for a fresh start and playoff push, Rudy being here to have his back would go a very long way IMO.. His contract is ridiculously cheap for next year..

Hayward-Cousins-Gobert is an extremely formidable frontline... I really think its such a match that Cousins could take a discount to keep it rolling..
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lol at cousins and gobert.
 
I would like to see us give him more money this year to offset paying him more in the future and have it go down every year. That deal would keep him here 2 more years after this season and a team option for the last year. But that might be too much to ask for. I would rather see us renegotiate Hill than Favors. Favors has more years already and we need to see if he can get healthy.
 
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