How much should we be talking about Donovan?

[Sandman822]

What does this tell me?

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That most teams have a red column for their top 2 shot takers and a blue column for everything else, and the higher the column is the more efficient that group is. Teams with a higher red column than blue mean that the top 2 guys are more efficient than the rest of their team, vice versa if the blue column is higher.

Jazz are the only team to not even have a red column because our top two shot takers (Mitchell/Rubio) have been so bad this season they don't even break 1 PPS since that's the lowest mark on the vertical scale, while the rest of the Jazz are at 1.17/1.18 points per shot.

edit: also the Jazz' blue column is the 2nd highest in the entire league only behind the Warriors, so the rest of the team is performing very well offensively relative to the other teams blue columns

 

[Dali]

That most teams have a red column for their top 2 shot takers and a blue column for everything else, and the higher the column is the more efficient that group is. Teams with a higher red column than blue mean that the top 2 guys are more efficient than the rest of their team, vice versa if the blue column is higher.

Jazz are the only team to not even have a red column because our top two shot takers (Mitchell/Rubio) have been so bad this season they don't even break 1 PPP since that's the lowest mark on the vertical scale, while the rest of the Jazz are at 1.17/1.18 points per shot.

edit: also the Jazz' blue column is the 2nd highest in the entire league only behind the Warriors, so the rest of the team is performing very well offensively relative to the other teams blue columns

Very nice explanation.

 

[Sandman822]

Look at their remaining schedule. There are home games but that hasn’t been their saving grace this year and there are still a lot of games against decent teams they haven’t proven they can consistently beat.

While true to a degree I also think there's some noise in their home game record so far simply because of how many times they played one or two home games in between week long road trips all over the place. They've also had tough opponents coming in fairly often as the SOS would suggest.

To put it in perspective here's the upcoming 12 home games left before ASB

Magic
Lakers
Bulls (B2B)
Pistons
Cavs
Blazers
Nuggets
Timberwolves
Hawks
Rockets
Suns
Spurs

To me at least 7 of those should be wins (Magic, Bulls, Pistons, Cavs, Blazers, Hawks, Suns), we will be favourites with the bookies against a few more of those teams (Lakers, Timberwolves, Spurs), and we can absolutely compete with the Nuggets and Rockets at home. Mitchell has played some of his better games all season against the Rockets for example.

Knowing how inconsistent the Jazz have been this season they'll probably drop a game they should win but still, there's a real opportunity to start piling up some wins in January/February at home.

 

[Alfalfa]

Given how much attention Mitchell's drives get, and how high his usage is, he should be averaging 6+ assists per game. If he drove with the idea that he either gets a good shot or passes it to an open man, his game would be improve a lot, and so would the Jazz' prospects as a team. Smashing into a wall of defenders and throwing a prayer, or worse, lazily taking a contested off the dribble 3 with 20 seconds left on the clock (like he's Steph Curry or some ****), gets us nowhere.

I don't know he can make the mental adjustment mid-season, but I sure hope so. Because I don't think there's anything wrong with his game from a technical/physical stand point (for a player of his experience level).

 

[magic]

What does this tell me?

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It's saying that our top 2 shooters average less than one point per shot taken. And the bar chart purposely starts the average at ONE to make it seem as if our top two shooters average zero points.

If they started the chart at 0 points-per-shot average, it wouldn't stand out as much, and it would be more difficult for some to tell that our top two shooters in terms of shots taken, Ricky and Donovan, have horrendous FG%.

 

[mellow]

I would be interested to hear Quin coach a few practices with the Jazz, particularly when a new player is being introduced. From what I pieced together he wants his players to shoot open shots from certain places even if the players aren't hitting them at a great%.

Maybe an average offense creates open looks, and a good offense creates open looks in ideal locations, and a great offense creates open looks in ideal locations for the player most likely to make it.
As Lindsey said, the Jazz are decidedly average.

 

[Dali]

It's saying that our top 2 shooters average less than one point per shot taken. And the bar chart purposely starts the average at ONE to make it seem as if our top two shooters average zero points.

If they started the chart at 0 points-per-shot average, it wouldn't stand out as much, and it would be more difficult for some to tell that our top two shooters in terms of shots taken, Ricky and Donovan, have horrendous FG%.

Even if the chart started at zero you would still see the discrepancy, and just how inefficient our 2 top shot takers are. We are below the Knicks in the red bar, the worst team in the NBA. It show that the team has been carrying these two for the most part. Jae, Derrick and Rudy carried them last night.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Given how much attention Mitchell's drives get, and how high his usage is, he should be averaging 6+ assists per game. If he drove with the idea that he either gets a good shot or passes it to an open man, his game would be improve a lot, and so would the Jazz' prospects as a team. Smashing into a wall of defenders and throwing a prayer, or worse, lazily taking a contested off the dribble 3 with 20 seconds left on the clock (like he's Steph Curry or some ****), gets us nowhere.

I don't know he can make the mental adjustment mid-season, but I sure hope so. Because I don't think there's anything wrong with his game from a technical/physical stand point (for a player of his experience level).

I think if we adjust and make him a passer on those drives we have to put more shooters on the floor with him. Most of his drives he has Favs in the corner... Rudy in the dunkers spot or rolling... the only guy you can't help off of and recover to is Joe and he doesn't have the quickest release so you might still be able to reach in and recover.

It will be curious to see if we make changes by the deadline. I've seen enough to know that the current starting lineup works but is limited... ready for a changeup but it takes two to tango on a trade and Favs/Ricky are both solid... so can't make a move from solid to just bad to say "see we changed things". If DM can't make the reads with more space or can't be more effecient with more creation on the floor then you really have to evaluate what that means for our team/roster construction long term.

 

[Dali]

I think if we adjust and make him a passer on those drives we have to put more shooters on the floor with him. Most of his drives he has Favs in the corner... Rudy in the dunkers spot or rolling... the only guy you can't help off of and recover to is Joe and he doesn't have the quickest release so you might still be able to reach in and recover.

It will be curious to see if we make changes by the deadline. I've seen enough to know that the current starting lineup works but is limited... ready for a changeup but it takes two to tango on a trade and Favs/Ricky are both solid... so can't make a move from solid to just bad to say "see we changed things". If DM can't make the reads with more space or can't be more effecient with more creation on the floor then you really have to evaluate what that means for our team/roster construction long term.

I don't mind the 1 on 1 for Donovan if the floor is spaced. It's the 1v3 and sometimes even hi surrounded by four players, and then jacks up an ill-advised shot is what frustrates me. Both the corners are open. Kick it out. That's where he needs to have better awareness and decision making.

 

[Sandman822]

OK so I decided to take a deeper look into that graph since it seems kinda screwy. I incorrectly called it points per possession in my explanation post, it's points per shot which is defined as points off 2PA/3PA divided by total FGA (points per possession includes FTs and TOs but PPS doesn't)

Mitchell has scored 577 total points off of shots so far this season, and has attempted 627. 577/627 = 0.92 points per shot which is bad.

Rubio has scored 381 total points off of shots so far this season, and has attempted 422. 381/422 = 0.9 points per shot which is also bad.

So basically the Jazz' top two guys are not even close to sniffing 1.0 points per shot while every other team in the league has a top duo that can do it. That's how bad they've been efficiency wise, and while stat ignores their FTs and TOs I don't think their PPP would be all that much better to be honest.

 

[Sandman822]

Few other players to compare to

Gobert has a PPS of 1.32 which is elite
Favs has a PPS of 1.32 as well which is elite
Ingles has a PPS of 1.09 which is good
Exum has a PPS of 0.93 which is bad
Crowder has a PPS of 1.06 which is alright

basically just reconfirming what most of us already knew, the Jazz' guard play has been bad this year scoring wise and the forwards and bigs are picking up the slack.

 

[fishonjazz]

That most teams have a red column for their top 2 shot takers and a blue column for everything else, and the higher the column is the more efficient that group is. Teams with a higher red column than blue mean that the top 2 guys are more efficient than the rest of their team, vice versa if the blue column is higher.

Jazz are the only team to not even have a red column because our top two shot takers (Mitchell/Rubio) have been so bad this season they don't even break 1 PPP since that's the lowest mark on the vertical scale, while the rest of the Jazz are at 1.17/1.18 points per shot.

edit: also the Jazz' blue column is the 2nd highest in the entire league only behind the Warriors, so the rest of the team is performing very well offensively relative to the other teams blue columns

Oh I see. Thanks

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