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The Conley Conundrum

silesian said:
yeah Donovan’s usage drops from 31% to 30%. You are not going to argue that is statistically significant, are you? It is less than one shot per game. Don’s usage is up year over year including play with Conley.

I bet you noticed that the net rating with don and mike together is 5.3 higher than without don without mike.
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I will tell you what is significant, Conley's stats across the board. Because Conley hasn't gotten the ball in his hands, his play has suffered as a results. But if you give him the ball, Don's usage will drop even more so it is a lost cause. Again you haven't answered my question, why bring in Conley?

And like I've said again and again, Conley being a net positive with player A, B or C is due to the amazing plays of player A, B or C rather than the play by Conley himself. Conley currently holds a negative BPM on both ends of the floor, meaning we'd be MORE POSITIVE with any other player on the floor with player A, B or C. You've learnt calculus in high school, right?
 
silesian said:
1. You are confusing BPM with simple plus minus. BPM is a weak stat, it was designed to use old historical stats, even basketball reference acknowledges this.

2. You don’t know what adjustments would have been made or their outcomes.
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Then why is basketball reference still using BPM stats instead of the so-called simple plus minus that you've mentioned? Can you tell me what Conley's simple plus/minus is this year? All advance stats have flaws but Conley hasn't been great in any of them this year. That is the one thing I know
 
Eenie-Meenie said:
Stats don't factor in intangibles, and as we can see, the Jazz and Donovan are playing better without Mike.
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Not sure how you reconcile "playing better" with the fact that the Jazz offense scores more points per possession with "Donovan with Conley" versus "Donovan without Conley" with "playing better"

This despite the significantly easier schedule when Conley was out.
This includes Conley's terrible start to the season.

Don't think of it as "stats" but rather "facts"
 
jom2003 said:
And like I've said again and again, Conley being a net positive with player A, B or C is due to the amazing plays of player A, B or C rather than the play by Conley himself. Conley currently holds a negative BPM on both ends of the floor, meaning we'd be MORE POSITIVE with any other player on the floor with player A, B or C. You've learnt calculus in high school, right?
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An answer to the question: "what happens when analytics get into the hands of the innumerate?" That is not even remotely how BPM works, smile.

Go study BPM and get back to me, smile.

PS: I'm glad you studied intro to calculus in high school. Unfortunately, regression models (statistical tools) are used and not a lick calculus. I studied advanced calculus and statistics through a graduate level chemical engineering program. So please please please teach me about math, smile.
 
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jom2003 said:
Then why is basketball reference still using BPM stats instead of the so-called simple plus minus that you've mentioned? Can you tell me what Conley's simple plus/minus is this year? All advance stats have flaws but Conley hasn't been great in any of them this year. That is the one thing I know
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We agree that Conley has underperformed and his plus/minus sucks, mostly due to his terrible start to the season. I was contesting the assertion that Donovan's usage was highly impacted by Conley on the court.

Basketball Reference uses BPM because it uses stats that are available back to the early 70s, so you can get a comparison between players in different eras (albeit a highly dubious comparison).

Current data give a much better picture and enables better analytics.

All the plus/minuses have weaknesses and at best you can get a non-precise directional indication of impact.

To me it RPM gives a good indication to challenge conventional wisdom. Last year, I saw Siakam rated highly and I said "that's got to be a glitch." Then I watched him play more and my "eye test" calibrated with the advanced stat. RPM also gives a good general picture. The top 20 in DRPM are not necessarily the 20 best defenders, but you are damn sure they are better, on average, than players ranked 50-60.

I think RPM is "owned" by ESPN so Basketball Reference can't publish it. And the simple nonadjusted on/off plus-minus is on NBA.com
 
silesian said:
An answer to the question: "what happens when analytics get into the hands of the innumerate?" That is not even remotely how BPM works, smile.

Go study BPM and get back to me, smile.

PS: I'm glad you studied intro to calculus in high school. Unfortunately, regression models (statistical tools) are used and not a lick calculus. I studied advanced calculus and statistics through a graduate level chemical engineering program. So please please please teach me about math, smile.
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So this is your argument on defending Conley? If you wanna talk math I think you are on the wrong forum
 
jom2003 said:
So this is your argument on defending Conley? If you wanna talk math I think you are on the wrong forum
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did you quote the right post? because there was nothing about Conley in there

At risk of repeating myself, what I have argued is that, in my opinion, Conley will be fine (not that his start to the season was fine).
 
silesian said:
did you quote the right post? because there was nothing about Conley in there

At risk of repeating myself, what I have argued is that, in my opinion, Conley will be fine (not that his start to the season was fine).
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If a team has shown better performances without one particular player, that player is probably anything but fine.
 
Remember when that guy made a thread about all the Conley hating people being bitches saying he was going to show them up?


Pepperidge Farm remembers.
 
jom2003 said:
If a team has shown better performances without one particular player, that player is probably anything but fine.
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Assuming that there is one cause and one effect. And assuming that recent history will repeat in the remainder of the year.

But basketball may not be this deterministic and the straight line extrapolation may fail.

Conley will be fine. Jazz will be fine.
 
silesian said:
Assuming that there is one cause and one effect. And assuming that recent history will repeat in the remainder of the year.

But basketball may not be this deterministic and the straight line extrapolation may fail.

Conley will be fine. Jazz will be fine.
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Did you factor how many points the defense allows when Conley plays with Donovan?
 
Eenie-Meenie said:
Did you factor how many points the defense allows when Conley plays with Donovan?
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No we have not covered that, but here it is:

Donovan with Conley 103.9
Donovan without Conley. 104.9

given sample size it is unlikely that these are statistically different.
 
jom2003 said:
As if a midget PG who needs the ball in his hand will not be easy to stop comes playoffs? Well historic stats have also shown otherwise.

And funny how you guys keep mentioning the term "small sample size" while Conley shooting 40% on catch and shoot being the very definition of it. The guy barely hits 1 shot a game on catch n shoot and he is supposed to be "effective" as an offball threat? I will take that if Conley offers other offball skills on the table. But is he good at setting screens? Is he good at cuts? Is he good at rebounding/boxing out? Well, I guess there are still not enough sample to make conclusions because you know, the guys never played a secondary ball handling option/offball role in his career? So funny that you mention FO being cautious yet their logic behind bringing in a midget ball dominant PG to serve as a secondary/offball role was based on limited data/sample size.
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Playoffs? Uh? He is been pretty good in the playoffs.

Him being small could be a problem against certain matchups, especially against the LA teams but I imagine the coaching staff will find ways to hide him on defense so he could still be effective. For instance, against the Lakers he could guard Bradley, Rondo, Danny Green or KCP. Against the Clippers: Beverly, Shamet or Harkless. He has fared pretty well against OKC, LAC (CP3) and SAS in the past. He has not played against the Rockets in the PO, but he was very good against Harden and CP3 in the regular season.

Small sample size? I think you are misunderstanding the concept. What you are doing is projecting Conley's future play based on 20 games and iffy metrics (or at least not using them properly as silesian pointed out). On the other hand, catch and shoot opportunities has accounted for a bit more than 20% of field goal attempts throughout Conley's career - about 3 attempts per game -(at least from 2013, when tracking data became available). That's hundreds of games/observations. He shoots 40% of those and more on wide open looks. That's good. I don't disagree he is a more effective player with the ball in his hands. What I disagree with is your statement that he has no off the ball game whatsoever. I imagine his game and role will trend toward more catch and shoot opportunities as he also ages.
 
Conley has a bigger ego than he probably should. At least that’s the vibe I get. If I’m Quin, I take Donnie out at about the 5:00 mark of the 1st and 3rd. Let Conley play with Royce, Ingles, Bogey and Gobert. There is still enough firepower there. There’s still the Ingles to Gobert lobs. This allows Donnie to play most of the 2nd quarter and be the primary scorer with that second unit before the rest of the starters come back in. He should torch fools and I think Donnie would be fine with this.
 
Wes Mantooth said:
Conley has a bigger ego than he probably should. At least that’s the vibe I get. If I’m Quin, I take Donnie out at about the 5:00 mark of the 1st and 3rd. Let Conley play with Royce, Ingles, Bogey and Gobert. There is still enough firepower there. There’s still the Ingles to Gobert lobs. This allows Donnie to play most of the 2nd quarter and be the primary scorer with that second unit before the rest of the starters come back in. He should torch fools and I think Donnie would be fine with this.
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This is basically already what they’ve been doing. I think it should be inverted. I also think Conley should strictly play a bench/backup role when he comes back to ease into things (until he feels “100%”/acclimated).
 
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