Coronavirus

[JazzyFresh]

@Red



Deborah Birx and Anthony S. Fauci, the leaders of the White House task force, emphasized that although the projection of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths were likely, they were hopeful that they could prevent such a high number by adhering to strict mitigation protocols.

 

[candrew]

There is no reason to think that masks don't help at least partially for the general population. Even if they are not 100% proof to stop you from getting the virus, there are several points where it helps:
1. small chance it will prevent a droplet from someone else infected talking around you landing on your face, mouth, nose.
2. it stops you from directly touching your face frequently, thus limiting the chance you will transfer it on your face if you've touched a surface that has the virus until you wash your hands
3. all the sick are mandated to wear masks, because they limit how much the sick contaminate the ones around them and the environment/surfaces around them. A ton of people who are infected don't know it, thus widespread mask use captures a lot of them in limiting spreading the disease.

Actually people wearing masks touch their face constantly because they're continually adjusting the damn thing because they're not used to wearing one.

If you're practicing social distancing the mask is probably not needed.

Although agree on third point, the masks should be saved for people who are sick.

 

[One Brow]

Daily check in.

204,963 average cases per day for 365 more days to hit 75,000,000(and that was the low irresponsible fear mongering prediction). That's still about 1.7 cases per second for an entire year.

I keep expecting this number to start dramatically changing but it's not. This exponential growth that I was ridiculed and called stupid about just isn't happening on the fear mongering scale that was being pushed and hoped for.

Except, it is. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Look at the graph labeled "Cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States by report date, January 12, 2020 to March 30, 2020, at 4pm ET"

4,226 cases on 3/16
44,183 cases on 3/23
163,539 on 3/30

Let's downplay to keep is simple, and call that a 3-fold increase in a week, and 160,000 cases right now. How many cases would there be in three weeks?

4,320,000.

In another 3 weeks?

116,640,000

Will it triple every week? Probably not. Will the number jump by larger amounts every day? Yes, for quite while.

 

[Deleted member 365]

This seems relevant to the medical supplies discussion.

 

[JazzyFresh]

Except, it is. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Look at the graph labeled "Cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States by report date, January 12, 2020 to March 30, 2020, at 4pm ET"

4,226 cases on 3/16
44,183 cases on 3/23
163,539 on 3/30

Let's downplay to keep is simple, and call that a 3-fold increase in a week, and 160,000 cases right now. How many cases would there be in three weeks?

4,320,000.

In another 3 weeks?

116,640,000

Will it triple every week? Probably not. Will the number jump by larger amounts every day? Yes, for quite while.

You're better than this brow. But I guess if people believe it I'm going have to keep doing my daily numbers. You're talking about 33+% of the population. No other country is even at a half of a percent.

 

[One Brow]

You're better than this brow. But I guess if people believe it I'm going have to keep doing my daily numbers. You're talking about 33+% of the population. No other country is even at a half of a percent.

Yet. What's your reason for thinking the spread will slow down?

 

[Gameface]

You're better than this brow. But I guess if people believe it I'm going have to keep doing my daily numbers. You're talking about 33+% of the population. No other country is even at a half of a percent.

How high do you think the number will go and what are you willing to put on that?

 

[The Midnight]

Getting easier all the time.

The trouble is getting masks. I have a few regular ones on hand only because I have lung disease and it helps keep cold air out of my lungs in the winter. But I didn't restock before everything sold out and is rightfully going to medical staff.

I have one N95 mask that I'll use if I get COVID. I feel too guilty to wear it to the office now as my law enforcement coworkers can't get them presently and really need them. But I don't want to give mine away because I need it too.

Sent from my moto z3 using JazzFanz mobile app

Don't be shy to use your masks. As I remember you're older than most in your office therefore you're more vulnerable than them.

Also in terms of getting more masks, you might have to get creative. Either sew your own cloth masks OR get them somehow from Ebay or Craigslist or from other avenues like Facebook groups?

I had recently moved to Bangkok and at first I had no masks but everyone else was wearing one. I went on facebook, typed in "Masks for sale" and there were x2 Facebook groups that I joined which had people posting ads for them. These people import them from Vietnam. I was able to procure about x400 masks (about $0.50 each) and was able to give or resold them to friends and family who were really grateful as they had no way of getting them (all sold out at pharmacies, etc).

So there are masks for sale out there, you just have to somehow find them. Sometimes if the State aren't gonna help you, you have to get creative and help yourself.

 

[JazzyFresh]

How high do you think the number will go and what are you willing to put on that?

Well let's say 10% gets infected that's 33 million. So if 5% of that 33 mill die were at 1.6 mill deaths.

Right now we're not even at .06%. That's not even a tenth of one percent. So it's going to take astronomical numbers just to get 1% let alone 33% or my 10% I used.

Don't care to make wagers on a catastrophe though. Keep in mind no other country is even at .06% so I'm being extremely generous.

 

[candrew]

The stores around here are all out of ice cream except vanilla.

I don't know how much more of this I can take!

 

[Avery]

The stores around here are all out of ice cream except vanilla.

I don't know how much more of this I can take!

Ice cream game was horrible at first, but my Smiths yesterday had a whole ton. Food in general was restocked quite well and almost to normal.

Getting TP and Clorox wipes is still an exercise in futility.

 

[Zombie]

Well let's say 10% gets infected that's 33 million. So if 5% of that 33 mill die were at 1.6 mill deaths.

Right now we're not even at .06%. That's not even a tenth of one percent. So it's going to take astronomical numbers just to get 1% let alone 33% or my 10% I used.

Don't care to make wagers on a catastrophe though. Keep in mind no other country is even at .06% so I'm being extremely generous.

So your argument against exponential growth, the math for which has been shown to you, is that it makes numbers too big?