latin jazz
Well-Known Member
I'm now wondering if this was Jazzy worst take. I thought it was but man, these last few weeks...
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Hekate
- Start date
I'm now wondering if this was Jazzy worst take. I thought it was but man, these last few weeks...
You realize there are unprecedented measures being taken by the whole world to stop the spread of this thing, right?
I have made some rough calculations about the spread in previous posts, but in all of them I'm qualifying that those are the numbers if no measures are applied and/or if the current rates keep up(i.e. if the exponential growth is not broken). For example, right now it looks like Italy has managed to break the exponential growth with their lockdown and they might be on their way down the curve(still need several more days or a week to be sure) which would mean that they are at about the middle of their numbers and you can roughly expect their current numbers to double by the end... again this is all conditional that they are able to keep the measures until they beat it completely or the summer comes and it's heavily impacted from the warm weather or they find a cure or... some other way to keep the spread very low... etc.
The US number is still growing exponentially, but it has been lowered from the uninterrupted 35% daily with no measures to now leaning toward slower spread(around the 22% line I think). Keep in mind that you can see the results of measure about 10-15 days after the measures are taken, because the sick people who are hitting the healthcare system now probably became infected around 10-14 days ago. So yeah... that's the path of most countries when they institute measures and lockdowns - the spread slows down from 35% increase daily to then lower and lower exponential growth until they become constant and the exponential growth is broken and the new numbers start getting smaller rather than larger. Lets see how much time it will take. The thing with the US is that it's huge and there are pockets that will probably go one after another in their own mini-curves...
latin jazz
Well-Known Member
JazzyFresh
Banned
Lol exactly
I wouldn't expect people to actually believe what they post.
I've broken down numbers ad nauseum and not one other person besides stitches above has provided an ounce of insight to disapprove me. It just lies with nothing to back them up
We'd have to have 75M tests before we get 75M cases. What's the time frame here?
BTW I have no idea what happens when we get it all under control and the numbers start going down. This will be the real test. Lets say in 2 weeks the US is on the downturn and you get fewer and fewer people infected and more and more recovered, etc. How do you continue life like before? At what point? You are at about 200K now... Lets say it goes to several million and back to a 1000 people left known to have it? What do you do?
If you unleash the workforce you are very likely to experience a second jump. This thing started with LESS than 1000 people in the US. It probably started with less than a 100... theoretically there is nothing stopping it from going berserk once again if you don't keep the measures... or at the very least some of the measures... I really want to see a plan for return to normal after this. I'm not seeing much of one right now anywhere in the world.
If you unleash the workforce you are very likely to experience a second jump. This thing started with LESS than 1000 people in the US. It probably started with less than a 100... theoretically there is nothing stopping it from going berserk once again if you don't keep the measures... or at the very least some of the measures... I really want to see a plan for return to normal after this. I'm not seeing much of one right now anywhere in the world.
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JazzyFresh
Banned
End of May? WTF?
JazzyFresh
Banned
By other countries models that's well past the timeframe. That's 2 months plus half of another.
JazzyFresh
Banned
The hilarious thing is that even the people who initially created the 75,000,000-150,000,000 model admitting they were waaaay off yet a bunch of Jazzfanzz people still believe it. That model has changed dramatically.
It's also funny that there's not even a million cases world wide but America will have 75,000,000. I've asked for explanations and haven't gotten one.
It's also funny that there's not even a million cases world wide but America will have 75,000,000. I've asked for explanations and haven't gotten one.
latin jazz
Well-Known Member
If you get 70M by end of May either your measures failed miserably in a way that they didn't fail anywhere else(so far), or at some point Trump just decided "**** it, let them die" and lifted the lockdown and the state of emergency.