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Jazz - Nuggets: Round 1

Jazzmix said:
I think that people tend to underestimate Denver here. They have a strong, deep team. Even last game when we shot exceptionally from 3 they still managed to beat us. But I still think it's the most favorable matchup we could get now. First of all because the officiating should be fair, Nuggets don't have any NBA favourite pet. Gobert has usually handled Jokic pretty well. They may also miss some players or they may be a bit rusty just returning to play. I am not confident but I can see us winning this series. This is also clearly much more favorable than it would be outside the bubble as Nuggets are very difficult to beat in Denver and this may go to 7 games.
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We didnt lose to them. We beat them behind the barn for 2 quarters and then let our scrubs play for 2 quarters. The bottom 5 on the team lost a huge lead. Denver should be nervous.
 
Denver's defensive rating is 16th for the season. Replacing Will Barton and Gary Harris with MPJ and Monte Morris is going to hurt their defense, especially on the perimeter and on the ball. The Jazz have had success against average and below-average defenses. They're going to get open shots in this series. They just need to settle in and make them.

Offensively, the Jazz are a much better 3pt shooting team than Denver. The Jazz generate more 3s and make more 3s than the Nuggets. Without Will Barton, the Nuggets lose one of their better volume shooters. They're replacing him with MPJ, who has been streaky. Jokic is shooting 31%, Murray is shooting 34%, and Torey Craig is shooting 32%. The Nuggets' best 3pt shooters are Jerami Grant and Paul Millsap, but they shoot low volume. Monte Morris can knock down open looks at 38%. PJ Dozier, who is their backup guard, is a non-shooter who makes around 28% of his 3s.

The Nuggets' game plan is pretty obvious. They're going to try to pound the ball in the paint, draw fouls, generate offensive rebounds and wear the Jazz down. Nuggets like to use their bigs to handle the ball and back down--not just Jokic, but Millsap and Grant as well. The Jazz need to put enough size on the floor to offer resistance. This is where guys like Brantley and Morgan can play a role, just by staying between Denver's bigs and the basket and using their size.
 
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Jazzmix said:
I think that people tend to underestimate Denver here. They have a strong, deep team. Even last game when we shot exceptionally from 3 they still managed to beat us. But I still think it's the most favorable matchup we could get now. First of all because the officiating should be fair, Nuggets don't have any NBA favourite pet. Gobert has usually handled Jokic pretty well. They may also miss some players or they may be a bit rusty just returning to play. I am not confident but I can see us winning this series. This is also clearly much more favorable than it would be outside the bubble as Nuggets are very difficult to beat in Denver and this may go to 7 games.
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I'd worry about Jokic picking up cheap fouls on Gobert. The way the bubble has been officiated, that might be an issue.

As for our last game against the Nuggets, the Jazz played a lineup with Conley/Clarkson/Niang/Bradley at the end of the 3rd quarter and early 4th quarter that blew a 10-pt lead in under 4 minutes. That's why the Jazz lost. Quin knows full well that lineup can't defend and rebound against Denver. I think he did this on purpose to gather data and to make it less likely the Jazz won that game. The Jazz have been targeting a matchup with Denver since about the 3rd game of the bubble. I think when the Heat blew out the Nuggets in their first game, that opened the Jazz's eyes. Denver is vulnerable.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
Gobert isn't exactly a statue while setting screens. This seems like a silly thing to make or break the series considering Denver could say the exact same thing about Gobert.

I hope the refs are subdued for both teams. Let them play.
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Amen. Rudy "moves" as much on picks as anyone in the league.
 
Avery said:
Candidly, I think DEN wanted us as well. A lot of teams would rather see our short handed bunch vs. play DAL.
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I think every team in the West would prefer the Jazz in round 1. All we have shown in the bubble is that we can tank a game with the best of them and we have not filled the hole left by Bogey.
 
gomretat said:
Amen. Rudy "moves" as much on picks as anyone in the league.
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I don't agree with that. Maybe he has as many moving screens as others in the league, but he's also setting many more screens a game than any other big in the game. I see screens where Rudy does it by the book. I rarely see a Jokic screen where he isn't moving.
 
tfivas said:
Will Barton is a Jazz killer as well. He's in that group of average NBA players that always kills us.
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Will Barton isn't very efficient, but he's athletic and creates for himself with the ball. He's a bit like an Alec Burks or Jordan Clarkson for Denver. Plus he guards on the wing. MPJ isn't going to replace all of that.
 
gomretat said:
I think every team in the West would prefer the Jazz in round 1. All we have shown in the bubble is that we can tank a game with the best of them and we have not filled the hole left by Bogey.
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We've also shown we can generate a ton of open 3s, sometimes make them at a high percentage, and defend bigger lineups in some situations.
 
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