David Stern
Well-Known Member
August 27th is when she's due
Jazz - Nuggets: Round 1
- Thread starter Bawse Dawg
- Start date
August 27th is when she's due
NAOS
Well-Known Member
The #1 key variable for this series is obviously whether or not we’re hitting 3s on or above our season average. If they are, we have a chance. The #2 key is whether or not we can dig deep and get some better outcomes out of our perimeter defense. If we turn into the Utah Blow Byzz again (and per usual), then this lasts 6 games, max.
Bawse Dawg
Well-Known Member
Mitchell has never lost in the playoffs to a non Rockets team.
LoPo
Well-Known Member
Of course it's a two way street. However, Gobert sets more stable screens. He is a fantastic screen setter.
Jokic really isn't a great screen setter and he makes up for it with side to side movement. If he's allowed to do it, he can tear a team apart. He gives both himself and his teammates additional space to break down our calculated defensive approach.
Some may mock me for this comment, but just monitor this throughout the series. It will be a factor. I guarantee either Gobert or Jokic will get called on some games and not others. It will lead to foul trouble and or technicals which may decide certain games.
The Jazz Wonderbra
Well-Known Member
We didnt lose to them. We beat them behind the barn for 2 quarters and then let our scrubs play for 2 quarters. The bottom 5 on the team lost a huge lead. Denver should be nervous.
NAOS
Well-Known Member
In other words, Mitchell is undefeated when he gets to play 5-on-5 instead of 5-on-6.
Jazz used that game to test matchups, gather some data, and lose for playoff positioning.
Denver's defensive rating is 16th for the season. Replacing Will Barton and Gary Harris with MPJ and Monte Morris is going to hurt their defense, especially on the perimeter and on the ball. The Jazz have had success against average and below-average defenses. They're going to get open shots in this series. They just need to settle in and make them.
Offensively, the Jazz are a much better 3pt shooting team than Denver. The Jazz generate more 3s and make more 3s than the Nuggets. Without Will Barton, the Nuggets lose one of their better volume shooters. They're replacing him with MPJ, who has been streaky. Jokic is shooting 31%, Murray is shooting 34%, and Torey Craig is shooting 32%. The Nuggets' best 3pt shooters are Jerami Grant and Paul Millsap, but they shoot low volume. Monte Morris can knock down open looks at 38%. PJ Dozier, who is their backup guard, is a non-shooter who makes around 28% of his 3s.
The Nuggets' game plan is pretty obvious. They're going to try to pound the ball in the paint, draw fouls, generate offensive rebounds and wear the Jazz down. Nuggets like to use their bigs to handle the ball and back down--not just Jokic, but Millsap and Grant as well. The Jazz need to put enough size on the floor to offer resistance. This is where guys like Brantley and Morgan can play a role, just by staying between Denver's bigs and the basket and using their size.
Offensively, the Jazz are a much better 3pt shooting team than Denver. The Jazz generate more 3s and make more 3s than the Nuggets. Without Will Barton, the Nuggets lose one of their better volume shooters. They're replacing him with MPJ, who has been streaky. Jokic is shooting 31%, Murray is shooting 34%, and Torey Craig is shooting 32%. The Nuggets' best 3pt shooters are Jerami Grant and Paul Millsap, but they shoot low volume. Monte Morris can knock down open looks at 38%. PJ Dozier, who is their backup guard, is a non-shooter who makes around 28% of his 3s.
The Nuggets' game plan is pretty obvious. They're going to try to pound the ball in the paint, draw fouls, generate offensive rebounds and wear the Jazz down. Nuggets like to use their bigs to handle the ball and back down--not just Jokic, but Millsap and Grant as well. The Jazz need to put enough size on the floor to offer resistance. This is where guys like Brantley and Morgan can play a role, just by staying between Denver's bigs and the basket and using their size.
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I'd worry about Jokic picking up cheap fouls on Gobert. The way the bubble has been officiated, that might be an issue.
As for our last game against the Nuggets, the Jazz played a lineup with Conley/Clarkson/Niang/Bradley at the end of the 3rd quarter and early 4th quarter that blew a 10-pt lead in under 4 minutes. That's why the Jazz lost. Quin knows full well that lineup can't defend and rebound against Denver. I think he did this on purpose to gather data and to make it less likely the Jazz won that game. The Jazz have been targeting a matchup with Denver since about the 3rd game of the bubble. I think when the Heat blew out the Nuggets in their first game, that opened the Jazz's eyes. Denver is vulnerable.
gomretat
Well-Known Member
Amen. Rudy "moves" as much on picks as anyone in the league.
Bawse Dawg
Well-Known Member
Will Barton is welcome to chuck away to his hearts desire.
They have players I'm much more afraid of.
gomretat
Well-Known Member
I think every team in the West would prefer the Jazz in round 1. All we have shown in the bubble is that we can tank a game with the best of them and we have not filled the hole left by Bogey.
LoPo
Well-Known Member
I don't agree with that. Maybe he has as many moving screens as others in the league, but he's also setting many more screens a game than any other big in the game. I see screens where Rudy does it by the book. I rarely see a Jokic screen where he isn't moving.
Will Barton isn't very efficient, but he's athletic and creates for himself with the ball. He's a bit like an Alec Burks or Jordan Clarkson for Denver. Plus he guards on the wing. MPJ isn't going to replace all of that.
We've also shown we can generate a ton of open 3s, sometimes make them at a high percentage, and defend bigger lineups in some situations.
An underrated move would be to find someone else in our lineup who can help defend Jokic and free Gobert to defend multiple actions. If Jarrell Brantley can prevent Frank Kaminsky (7'0", 240 lbs) from backing down, he might be able to put some resistance on Jokic (7'0", 280 lbs). There's also Tony Bradley and Juwan Morgan.
The problem with Jokic is that he's the size of a couch, and he weighs as much as a couch with someone big sitting on it.
The problem with Jokic is that he's the size of a couch, and he weighs as much as a couch with someone big sitting on it.
I don't think Denver can stop our offense. We can always miss 75% of our open shots though... like we did last year against HOU. Unfortunately I think their offense will prove a problem for us too. Last year I was much more eager to meet the Nuggets because we had multiple defenders we could throw at Jokic and feel good about it... hell we could even throw Favs and Gobert together at him. I think Gobert being disciplined will be key. We cannot afford him being in foul trouble. Every time Jokic plays against any of our backup bigs it's a massacre.
For some reason I'm not that worried about Torrey Craig. I know he's guarded Donovan relatively well, but this will be much more about team defense and we've never had trouble creating open shots against that Denver scheme.
For some reason I'm not that worried about Torrey Craig. I know he's guarded Donovan relatively well, but this will be much more about team defense and we've never had trouble creating open shots against that Denver scheme.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
Ummmm, you do realize Gobert does the same, right?
AlaskanAssassin
Well-Known Member
I'm excited that I don't have to watch us play Houston again.
Denver is good. With essentially no home court advantage, this seems like a toss-up series. It would be great to see Gobert ball out against Jokic. Gobert still doesn't get the recognition he deserves, and maybe this is the series he can finally get his due.
Denver is good. With essentially no home court advantage, this seems like a toss-up series. It would be great to see Gobert ball out against Jokic. Gobert still doesn't get the recognition he deserves, and maybe this is the series he can finally get his due.