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Jazz - Nuggets: Round 1

Thee Idiotic Minivan K said:
Ummmm, you do realize Gobert does the same, right?
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If you follow the thread, I concede that for sure. Rudy sets a ton of screens and some are moving. However, Jokic does it on every possession where he sets a screen. He's sloppy. Rudy doing it some is not the same as Jokic doing it every time.

One thing to monitor is foul trouble. Moving screen fouls on Jokic will wear him out. He loses his cool when he's called out on it. So if the refs call it, I love our chances. If they don't call it at all and he gets away with it, then they could destroy us.
 
Catchall said:
Denver's defensive rating is 16th for the season. Replacing Will Barton and Gary Harris with MPJ and Monte Morris is going to hurt their defense, especially on the perimeter and on the ball. The Jazz have had success against average and below-average defenses. They're going to get open shots in this series. They just need to settle in and make them.

Offensively, the Jazz are a much better 3pt shooting team than Denver. The Jazz generate more 3s and make more 3s than the Nuggets. Without Will Barton, the Nuggets lose one of their better volume shooters. They're replacing him with MPJ, who has been streaky. Jokic is shooting 31%, Murray is shooting 34%, and Torey Craig is shooting 32%. The Nuggets' best 3pt shooters are Jerami Grant and Paul Millsap, but they shoot low volume. Monte Morris can knock down open looks at 38%. PJ Dozier, who is their backup guard, is a non-shooter who makes around 28% of his 3s.

The Nuggets' game plan is pretty obvious. They're going to try to pound the ball in the paint, draw fouls, generate offensive rebounds and wear the Jazz down. Nuggets like to use their bigs to handle the ball and back down--not just Jokic, but Millsap and Grant as well. The Jazz need to put enough size on the floor to offer resistance. This is where guys like Brantley and Morgan can play a role, just by staying between Denver's bigs and the basket and using their size.
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Good post


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app
 
Hello Jazzfanz, first time poster here. I discovered the site around the beginning of the bubble and have been lurking since then, but heard something interesting on David Locke's podcast today and wanted to share.

He said that in our 3 games vs Denver this year we were a net +8 when both Gobert and Jokic were on the floor. Since we lost the 3 games by 6, 3, and 2 points that means we were -19 when only one or neither of Gobert and Jokic were playing. I suspect most of that time is when neither were playing, so that's more evidence that bench lineups are one of the team's biggest issues.

On a separate point, I was perplexed at how willing we were to switch our guards onto Jokic in the recent double OT game. There were many possessions where we sent a double team at Jokic because Conley or Mitchell was guarding him in the post, only to have Jokic immediately find the open man cutting for a layup or open for 3. I think we're going to need to do everything we can to avoid switching guards onto Jokic if we want to win the series. We can't expect someone as small as Mitchell, Conley, or even Royce to have a chance at stopping Jokic in the post and he is too good of a passer to double.
 
We need to find a way to share the foul pressure that Jokic applies. It can’t fall 90% on Gobert. And I’m afraid that Bradley will be murdered.

I really hope Q learned enough to give Brantley a shot, even if it’s only for one 6-minute stretch. He could put a body on Jokic at 18’ and, on his own strength, help prevent Jokic from backing down into the paint. Maybe this is what Q was hoping for Morgan, but I hope he pivots.
 
But I can’t underline our perimeter defense enough. Denver survives by putting pressure on the rim, and this is likely why they want us and badly as we want them. We can suck at preventing dribble penetration and blowing up cutters. Like, SUUUUUUUCK.
 
Catchall said:
We've also shown we can generate a ton of open 3s, sometimes make them at a high percentage, and defend bigger lineups in some situations.
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Fair enough. That is true. So who do you think most teams in the West would prefer in the first round? I still think we would win the vote of the preferred opponent
 
LoPo said:
I don't agree with that. Maybe he has as many moving screens as others in the league, but he's also setting many more screens a game than any other big in the game. I see screens where Rudy does it by the book. I rarely see a Jokic screen where he isn't moving.
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Agree to disagree. Rudy does set some by the book but he is frequently on the move with his picks. If they call moving picks, we are in as deep of yogurt as the Nuggies.
 
BTW, the Nuggets record since the trade deadline (Feb/March) when they gave away Malik Beasley is 8-6. Without Harris, Barton and Beasley, the Nuggets aren't the same team they were last year. (That doesn't include the bubble where they're 3-4, but have been giving games away.)

Denver's offensive strategy has been for Jokic to back down with the ball, pull defenders out of position and open up catch-and-shoot opportunities on the perimeter. Now Denver is missing some of those shooters they once had. At the same time, Jazz defend the 3pt line very well because they know they Gobert anchoring the defense. I think the Jazz are going to be able to defend the Nuggets.
 
gomretat said:
Fair enough. That is true. So who do you think most teams in the West would prefer in the first round? I still think we would win the vote of the preferred opponent
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Every team has different matchups they prefer over others. It has to do with play style and personnel.

The Jazz are being written off because they're missing their 2nd leading scorer in Bogdanovic. However, in the bubble, the Jazz have been generating a ton of 3pt looks, they've gotten their shooters hitting a high percentage more recently, and they've started playing more like the Houston Rockets offensively. Meanwhile, their defense has actually improved a bit without Bogdanovic.
 
Catchall said:
BTW, the Nuggets record since the trade deadline (Feb/March) when they gave away Malik Beasley is 8-6. Without Harris, Barton and Beasley, the Nuggets aren't the same team they were last year. (That doesn't include the bubble where they're 3-4, but have been giving games away.)

Denver's offensive strategy has been for Jokic to back down with the ball, pull defenders out of position and open up catch-and-shoot opportunities on the perimeter. Now Denver is missing some of those shooters they once had. At the same time, Jazz defend the 3pt line very well because they know they Gobert anchoring the defense. I think the Jazz are going to be able to defend the Nuggets.
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If that's the offensive philosophy for Denver then Quin needs to have our perimeter defenders stay home on their assignments. I'll take my chances with a 2 time DMVP vs Jokic.
 
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I can’t wait to see us try to defend Michael Porter, Jr. Could be ugly. I’d throw Joe on him.
 
Wow that schedule is crazy. I'm on Central Time

Monday 12:30
Wednesday 3:00
Friday 2:00
Sunday 8:00

Wow, that's crazy. Honestly though, I'd rather have that than the usual "stick Utah playoff games as late as possible"
 
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