I think I'm leaning toward the Jazz winning this series tbh.
Our best lineups are stronger than theirs.
The Jazz are +8 in Jazz-Nuggets games this year in the minutes when Gobert and Jokic are both on the floor. Jokic kills our bench but our starters have won out.
We shoot the three at higher volume and at higher percentage. And we've had no problem at all getting those looks against them this year.
Bench minutes are going to be heavily cut. So bench shouldn't kill us as much as usual.
Conley has been great against the Nuggets this year.
Gobert and Jokic are both going to be great. I trust Mitchell/Conley/Clarkson/Ingles far more than Murray/Harris/Millsap/MPJ in PLAYOFF basketball.
My only real concern is that if it becomes a war of attrition the Nuggets have the advantage. We can't afford injuries, consistent foul trouble. And hopefully Conley doesn't have to leave until the series is over.
No matter who wins I expect this series to go 6 or 7 games tho. It's gonna be exciting.