I don’t want to write a tome here, so let me get to the initial assumptions right off the bat:
1. We are officially in the era of diminishing returns when it comes to the efficiency of drop-big defense of the PnR. It can be in your bag, but it cannot be the kind of every-play, everyday staple like it was this year for several teams.
2. This drop in efficiency is primarily because of adjustments being made by the league’s top 30+ guards, who are increasingly effective at off-the-dribble 3s. But it’s also because it’s just hard to defend a guard who’s given a predictable runway/funnel into the defense to either draw a foul or kick out to a shooter whose timing is set by the predictable rhythm of funnel-drive-kick.
3. The effectiveness of drop-big has been partially inflated by the success of the Bucks, and, to a degree, the Utah Jazz—both of whom have the best defenders in the world.
4. As currently constructed, the Utah Jazz’s roster is in a weak position to adjust to the changed landscape.
Now, let’s carry the argument forward:
(i) League-wide, there will be more switching, more coverage where the big is up near the level of the screen, and more zone coverage.
(ii) Whenever the big is up and there’s no switch, this will make the rim more vulnerable to attack. And so, in terms of adjusting to this reality whilst maintaining emphasis on protecting the rim, defenses will ask more from the defender in the weak-side corner, since he is in the best position to help at the rim.
(iii) Obvious corollary here is that this defender needs to be long enough to protect the rim. (And also swift enough to recover to his shooter).
(iv) Defenses will also have to be good at sequestering the PnR to the strong side. This requires good help from the weak-side defender who’s up in the gap near the free throw line.
Now let’s look at the Jazz’s roster:
(a) Rudy Gobert is definitely good enough to be involved in more switches and to play up higher in non-switching schemes.
(b) this past season, the defender in the weak-side corner was often 6’1” Mike Conley
(c) Royce is an good/excellent defender in these changing schemes. He can play either on the ball or up in the gap near the free throw line. Joe will share these same duties, so we can only pray that he hasn’t lost too much of a step to do so. If he can’t do this effectively in the starting lineup, then our overall versatility is hit pretty hard.
(d) Mitchell has a heavy offensive load, so he’s probably best in this gap near the free throw line where the workload is a little less. Obviously offenses can hunt for the matchups they want and usually have more than one PnR ball handler, so Mitchell (or anyone else in the gap) will be forced to play on-ball for a fair number of possessions per game. While we should endeavor to limit these possessions, we can also expect Mitchell to improve and be a good stopper there when necessary.
(e) Joe, Bojan, and Conley (and I could definitely keep listing players!) will all be extremely ineffective in the weak-side corner going forward. Morgan could be a good piece there. Maybe Brantley.
(f) Tony Bradley is cooked
(g) the Jazz need more defenders at multiple spots. They need more help on the ball. And they are extremely vulnerable in the weak-side corner. Christian Wood is the best available prospect for that weak side corner, and he can also play Rudy’s role. Denis Schroeder would be a plus-defender on the ball in our system. Shaq Harrison and Torrey Craig can help in multiple locations. If OPJ is gettable, then he’d be useful in that weak-side corner.
I’m gonna end here before this becomes even more tl;dr. There are obviously wrinkles I didn’t address, like when the offense empties the side of the floor where the PnR takes place, etc. Hopefully we can get to these details in this thread.
muah,
NAOS
