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Lockout!!!

The most likely alternative to the current NBA is that the current NBA owners blow things up and start things over at a much lower cost basis, which would decimate the NBA players' salary. The superstars and journeymen alike are FAR better off taking the 50-50 and running. It is the owners who have alternatives; they have other businesses, and most of them already consider their NBA team as a poor ROI proposition, even at 50-50. Meanwhile, most NBA players have alternatives overseas at 1/2 the salary (see Deron). Or at McDonald's.

...racist? Just kidding! Very astute post!
 
My take on the negotiations:

The owners are right that a 50-50 split is fair. First, stop saying the players are down from 57 it means nothing. The CBA expired and if the owners wanted to pay 57 they could have simply extended the old deal. The fact is the players aren't coming down from anything because there is no active CBA. It just as easy for the owners to start at 25% and say they come up 25%, it means nothing. What everyone is really talking about is how much they want nothing else. I love when the players said over and over in the news conference, the owners are at 50 we're at 53 lets split the difference. That's a straw man argument. The owners are saying we are at 47 and you are at 53 so lets meet in the middle at 50. None of its really true its all made up. The owners have decided they want 50 and the players have decided they want 53. That is a very wide gulf to jump. In my opinion 50-50 still pays the players a tremendous amount of money, more than they could get anywhere else in the world. I think they should take it.

The players are right to say we might except a BRi deal if the system issues are favorable. The NBA claims the two issues are separate and distinct. According to the NBA, the punitive luxury tax is about competitive balance and the BRI split is about money. This is not true and they know it. If the luxury tax is so punitive nobody will exceed it, salaries will be greatly lowered. The NBA knows this is true but are choosing to ignore it. The fact is the system and BRI all tie together. Players need a method of switching teams and getting paid what they feel they are worth. If the luxury tax prevents movement, players can't get paid their maximum worth and it lowers salaries. I think the players were right to ask the owners to put a pin in the BRI discussion to talk about the system. The owners were wrong to insist on an agreement of 50-50 before even discussing the punitive luxury tax.
 
Like in the NHL, what ends up happening with a hard cap is that the stars still get paid, but everyone else fights for scraps. For stars and fringe players, the system issues aren't a big deal (as their pay is relatively unaffected), but for the middle tier players, these same issues could end up significantly reducing their income (probably by half or even more for some). If most players fall into this middle tier, it makes perfect sense why the players would reject what the owners are offering: A reduction of 10%+ in BRI share for players collectively is effectively a reduction in pay by 50% (potentially) for a bunch of players.
 
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My take on the negotiations:

The owners are right that a 50-50 split is fair. First, stop saying the players are down from 57 it means nothing. The CBA expired and if the owners wanted to pay 57 they could have simply extended the old deal. The fact is the players aren't coming down from anything because there is no active CBA. It just as easy for the owners to start at 25% and say they come up 25%, it means nothing. What everyone is really talking about is how much they want nothing else. I love when the players said over and over in the news conference, the owners are at 50 we're at 53 lets split the difference. That's a straw man argument. The owners are saying we are at 47 and you are at 53 so lets meet in the middle at 50. None of its really true its all made up. The owners have decided they want 50 and the players have decided they want 53. That is a very wide gulf to jump. In my opinion 50-50 still pays the players a tremendous amount of money, more than they could get anywhere else in the world. I think they should take it.

The players are right to say we might except a BRi deal if the system issues are favorable. The NBA claims the two issues are separate and distinct. According to the NBA, the punitive luxury tax is about competitive balance and the BRI split is about money. This is not true and they know it. If the luxury tax is so punitive nobody will exceed it, salaries will be greatly lowered. The NBA knows this is true but are choosing to ignore it. The fact is the system and BRI all tie together. Players need a method of switching teams and getting paid what they feel they are worth. If the luxury tax prevents movement, players can't get paid their maximum worth and it lowers salaries. I think the players were right to ask the owners to put a pin in the BRI discussion to talk about the system. The owners were wrong to insist on an agreement of 50-50 before even discussing the punitive luxury tax.
+1 on your post. The only thing that I would add is that one rationale to the owners demanding a discussion of the percentage first is that in the meetings last week, all they talked about was the opposite--the peripheral details--and made no progress on the BRI (which is the #1 thing that matters). Maybe it was a preference that backfired, as possibly hammering out more concretely the other details would have felt like progress (and possibly would have encouraged either or both sides to talk more seriously about the BRI split), but I can understand the owners' insistence on doing the core negotiation first.

It would be awesome to be a fly on the wall, and we can imagine how stubborn both sides were, especially given that the mediator was successful with the potentially equally tenacious NFL and NHL deals but got nowhere with the NBA billionaires and punk players.
 
So, I'm thinking the season is toast. Any reason to hold out hope?
 
Like in the NHL, what ends up happening with a hard cap is that the stars still get paid, but everyone else fights for scraps. For stars and fringe players, the system issues aren't a big deal (as their pay is relatively unaffected), but for the middle tier players, these same issues could end up significantly reducing their income (probably by half or even more for some). If most players fall into this middle tier, it makes perfect sense why the players would reject what the owners are offering: A reduction of 10%+ in BRI share for players collectively is effectively a reduction in pay by 50% (potentially) for a bunch of players.

Not quite... the owners' current proposal isn't a simple hard cap like the NHL or NFL. It's still keeping the two cap levels as the old system did--the salary cap and the luxury threshold. The luxury threshold becomes "harder", but not completely hard. In fact, I proposed the exact thing about 5 months ago if I recall correctly. I think it's the best way to go. By having the two thresholds, especially if most teams are between the two thresholds, you make it so that signing players for beaucoup dollars is tough (unless it's your own player), but signing players via cap exceptions is easy.
 
Not quite... the owners' current proposal isn't a simple hard cap like the NHL or NFL. It's still keeping the two cap levels as the old system did--the salary cap and the luxury threshold. The luxury threshold becomes "harder", but not completely hard. In fact, I proposed the exact thing about 5 months ago if I recall correctly. I think it's the best way to go. By having the two thresholds, especially if most teams are between the two thresholds, you make it so that signing players for beaucoup dollars is tough (unless it's your own player), but signing players via cap exceptions is easy.
I don't know that we know the specifics of the system being discussed, and it seems as though the owners want to settle BRI split before system issues are tackled (at all?). If there's more info out there, I'd like to see it.

I was mostly posting what I posted in response to the assertion that system issues aren't a big deal. Of course they are, as they'll impact some players more than others. With a harder cap and fewer/lower-valued exceptions, the middle income players will be hit hardest, and that's not something you can just ignore when discussing the merits of the players' actions, especially since (I would guess) the plurality of players are in the middle income category.

This is not a competitive balance issue, no matter how many times people say it is. If the owners were truly committed to greater competitive balance, revenue sharing would be on the table.

A harder cap will impact NBA rosters more than it does NHL/NFL rosters because there are fewer players on NBA rosters, and thus less flexibility in keeping key players. A strict hard cap might just kill the league.
 
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