Trade deadline discussion

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yup, it was weird then, but I guess we all thought the new owner was going frugal, which happens.

Now that he's shown he's willing to spend to the extent of blowing cash on guys like Ersan just for w/e lockerroom/vet presence he brings, and now getting a guy like MattThomas, why the hell did we pinch pennies there? Did winning really completely change the owner's mind?

Being a little wishy washy on the small finances doesn’t give me a ton of confidence he gonna open up the coffers this offseason to keep the whole team together.

I actually think it’s more likely they were trying to duck the tax and then realized it was going to require another move that was hard to make... so then either said **** it fill out the roster or DL was like “ I don’t want to be like 400k over the tax cuz that will look dumb... let’s add some guys and be 3M into the tax and talk about how great Ryan is and how willing he is to invest”.

 

[LoPo]

I actually think it’s more likely they were trying to duck the tax and then realized it was going to require another move that was hard to make... so then either said **** it fill out the roster or DL was like “ I don’t want to be like 400k over the tax cuz that will look dumb... let’s add some guys and be 3M into the tax and talk about how great Ryan is and how willing he is to invest”.

Exactly. We have the best record in the league. It would have been a terrible PR move to make the trade necessary to avoid the luxury.

Boston did it because they are sitting below .500. They probably don't move Theis if they had a top 2 or 3 record in the East.

My bet is that Bogey or Conley are gone this summer unless we win the West or the Finals. I don't see us staying a $140 million repeat luxury tax payer unless we are truly contending for titles. The FO will say they were willing to go into the luxury, but if it doesn't pay off this postseason, there is no reason to do it again for the same team.

 

[One Brow]

What about Tony Bradley? He's had 21.1 PER and a .244 WS/48. A pretty qualified backup center by your standards?

I haven't seen him play this year. These numbers are better than a year ago, much better than 2.

So why not check out some non-rate based stats like BPM or net rating to see how well Favor's doing this season? I can tell you it ain't pretty.

He's in the top 20 centers (all centers, not just backups) on BPM (and yes, so is Tony Bradley).

And we "play the same defense with him on the court as with Gobert"? If you don't have time to watch games, just follow andy larsen on twitter and he will watch games for you.

I do watch Jazz games, and yes, we still chase shooters off the 3 and funnel them to Favors when he's in. However, if you have something from Larsen that says otherwise, I'll read it. I mean, Larsen did say this, which seems pretty close to what I am saying.

Now, we should note that the full season numbers aren’t bad: 108 defensive rating on the year during Favors’ minutes — not as good as Gobert, obviously, but good enough. Playing backup center to Gobert is always going to be a tough job because the Frenchman is just such a defensive star, he’d make anybody look lackluster in comparison.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Exactly. We have the best record in the league. It would have been a terrible PR move to make the trade necessary to avoid the luxury.

Boston did it because they are sitting below .500. They probably don't move Theis if they had a top 2 or 3 record in the East.

My bet is that Bogey or Conley are gone this summer unless we win the West or the Finals. I don't see us staying a $140 million repeat luxury tax payer unless we are truly contending for titles. The FO will say they were willing to go into the luxury, but if it doesn't pay off this postseason, there is no reason to do it again for the same team.

I think we try to keep Mike on a 2 year deal somewhere between 20/25M per. Once you have that commitment they look at what they can get for Bogey, JC, Favs and decide where we can get the best return and where we can replace production the cheapest. The Matt Thomas trade may be a tiny hedge for next year. You will have a guy that should be familiar with how we play and be ready to contribute.

If we get bounced in the first or second round it could get ugly.

 

[LoPo]

I think we try to keep Mike on a 2 year deal somewhere between 20/25M per. Once you have that commitment they look at what they can get for Bogey, JC, Favs and decide where we can get the best return and where we can replace production the cheapest. The Matt Thomas trade may be a tiny hedge for next year. You will have a guy that should be familiar with how we play and be ready to contribute.

If we get bounced in the first or second round it could get ugly.

So much will be decided this postseason.....

I'm not a Conley hater. I just want things to add up, and right now, they just haven't for me yet. People can make all the excuses they want, but why are the following numbers the way they are?

What Is The Jazz Record With And Without Conley 2019-2020 | StatMuse

The Utah Jazz were 26-21 with Mike Conley in 2019-20.

www.statmuse.com

2019-20 With Conley 26-21 (.553%)
2019-20 Without Conley 18-7 (.72%)
2020 Postseason 2-3 With, 1-1 Without

What Is The Jazz Record With And Without Conley This Season; Points Allowed | StatMuse

The Utah Jazz have a record of 7-13 without Mike Conley this season.

www.statmuse.com

2020-21 With Conley 25-10 (.714%)
2020-21 Without Conley 7-1 (.875%)

It's such a bizarre thing that we are statistically better without him than with him. Doesn't make sense. He's a great player. I like the guy. I'm not a Conley hater. I just struggle with the mindset some have around here that he's so incredibly essential.

If we have another disappointing postseason, I don't know if re-signing Mike to jettison Bogey, JC and/or Favors is the right move. I really hope we don't disappoint. I want to win a title and bring back everybody.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

So much will be decided this postseason.....

I'm not a Conley hater. I just want things to add up, and right now, they just haven't for me yet. People can make all the excuses they want, but why are the following numbers the way they are?

What Is The Jazz Record With And Without Conley 2019-2020 | StatMuse

The Utah Jazz were 26-21 with Mike Conley in 2019-20.

www.statmuse.com

2019-20 With Conley 26-21 (.553%)
2019-20 Without Conley 18-7 (.72%)
2020 Postseason 2-3 With, 1-1 Without

What Is The Jazz Record With And Without Conley This Season; Points Allowed | StatMuse

The Utah Jazz have a record of 7-13 without Mike Conley this season.

www.statmuse.com

2020-21 With Conley 25-10 (.714%)
2020-21 Without Conley 7-1 (.875%)

It's such a bizarre thing that we are statistically better without him than with him. Doesn't make sense. He's a great player. I like the guy. I'm not a Conley hater. I just struggle with the mindset some have around here that he's so incredibly essential.

If we have another disappointing postseason, I don't know if re-signing Mike to jettison Bogey, JC and/or Favors is the right move. I really hope we don't disappoint. I want to win a title and bring back everybody.

I think Mike is more likely to be even more valuable in the postseason. He’s been very good this year and the first half of last year appears to be the outlier at this point.

I think guys like JC can be less effective in the playoffs... maybe it’s just specific to Lou Will but if he isn’t good in the playoffs he could be the guy that is moved. I think he’d have good trade value so we’d get something for him. I think Bogey is a candidate but if he has a resurgence in the playoffs we will want to keep him... if he continues his slide then I’m not sure he has value in a trade.

The best thing we could do is just win the title and run it back... if I was DL that’s what I’d do.

 

[LoPo]

I think Mike is more likely to be even more valuable in the postseason. He’s been very good this year and the first half of last year appears to be the outlier at this point.

I think guys like JC can be less effective in the playoffs... maybe it’s just specific to Lou Will but if he isn’t good in the playoffs he could be the guy that is moved. I think he’d have good trade value so we’d get something for him. I think Bogey is a candidate but if he has a resurgence in the playoffs we will want to keep him... if he continues his slide then I’m not sure he has value in a trade.

The best thing we could do is just win the title and run it back... if I was DL that’s what I’d do.

I really hope everything you said here is true especially with regards to Conley being even more valuable come playoff time. I would rather keep this team together than break it up. To do so, we have to win some series of significance. I think we can and I hope that we will.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Lopo you've been 100% wrong about Conley. You are being completely dishonest if you act like you arent his biggest hater.

It’s comical at this point. Dude is so bad he’s almost hitting the ignore list.

 

[LoPo]

It’s comical at this point. Dude is so bad he’s almost hitting the ignore list.

Please don't. I need my sleep......

 

[Elizah Huge]

Please don't. I need my sleep......

Please stop ****ing threads up with your terrible takes. Whatever Conley did to you get over it. Your posts about him are so cringe. You literally said we would wave him goodbye if we won the championship. Lmao I don’t even know what to say. You bring up stats but aren’t we undefeated without Mitchell?

 

[gomretat]

Remember when Mike was benched last year then the front office intervened and he was a starter a few hours later... kinda sloppy.

Remember when we had a couple star players feuding and the front office kinda hung Rudy out to dry? Is that all star management? What about when they let it linger on? They are lucky Rudy is mature and wanted to rectify the situation.

I don't have all the details but it doesn't mean I can't spot where there are issues or where there was poor planning or asset management.

We agree on the Mike situation being bad but I dont get how that is "sloppy." I dont think anyone left Rudy out to dry in any way and I think they handled it very well. And if your point is, can anyone every identify something that could have been done better, you win. Dont know of any place that is not true. But we still disagree on casualness or sloppiness around the cap. Cap issues happen but that is because new situations emerge all of the time and this FO has a track record of managing the cap extremely well and simply now have a new owner who is approving things that were not approved in the past.

 

[LogGrad98]

I know where the money is spent when it comes to salary cap... its basically public ****ing knowledge. We put ourselves in a spot where we were slightly over the tax. Did Ryan know... probably. Does he know the full cap sheet and ramifications of being in the repeater tax... maybe, but he also trusts someone in the front office not to **** that up. The guy ain't filing his own tax returns... he has people for that.

You explain this dynamic and changing environment but any dumbass with excel and understanding could tell that if we use the full MLE along with the contract we handed out to JC would put us just above the tax once you met the minimum roster requirements... we were over by like $500kish but with no places to cut because everyone was a minimum guy. So lets say you ask Favs to take $300k less and JC to take $300k less this year... is that a deal breaker? I'm guessing not. If it was is Favs the only backup center that can possibly fill that role... there were a **** ton of guys we could have got that made a little less... there were guys available at the minimum.

Even if they had to have Favs and JC at the numbers the got... The other route would have been to slide down in the draft from 27 to a mid 2nd rounder. Would have shaved 1.2M and got us under the tax. I am sure the love Dok so much they had to have him... but they also brought in a guy on a big contract for three years right after drafting him... so how confident were they really.

In the Conley deal there were not a lot of suitors... Detroit, us, or he could stay in Memphis. We paid full price and then some... even after those assholes strung us out at the trade deadline and leaked out the trade.

This summer we used several second round picks to offload centers. One we drafted when we already had 2 established centers... then we brought in another in Udoh because we didn't trust a rookie. We continued picking up his rookie deal even though we clearly didn't trust him. Eventually we use a second to dump the option we picked up.

I didn't say they were incompetent. I explained what I meant by sloppy. Ending up a couple million over the tax when you had opportunities to duck it is sloppy spreadsheet work... sorry. Using seconds to clean up several backup center messes only to use your first round pick and MLE on backup centers is sloppy. There were years we operated at or below the salary floor rather than using excess cap space... kinda sloppy.

We took Faves because he was a known quantity and he was well-liked within the org and in the locker room. He was a definite upgrade over Bradley at the time, still is quite frankly. Yes I think there were probably both cheaper and better options for us, but sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't.